NIT games

[pilebuck13]

All right who we like boys Vcu -7 is on my radar
Ducks look dead USU -4 pondering bout all I see wyoming seems popular but I’m just not impressed they fell flat against boise and had a terrible game I’m not seeing how they hang w indiana maybe I’m missing something

[KVB]

All right who we like boys Vcu -7 is on my radar
Ducks look dead USU -4 pondering bout all I see wyoming seems popular but I’m just not impressed they fell flat against boise and had a terrible game I’m not seeing how they hang w indiana maybe I’m missing something

Agree, don't like Oregon.

Wyoming is in the bubbble games for the NCAA tourney. They are NOT a popular bet.

In fact...

...The KVB NCAAB Contrarian Fund has not had a play since December 30th.

It has picked up Wyoming at +4 today...

Indiana knocked off Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney. I have Indiana winning by 2 points, add the market presure and I get a Wyoming +4 bet.

I also have Cleveland St at +11.5, another contrarian play but a different type of contrarian strategy.

[KVB]

For the Princeton/VCU game, the UNDER could be a play for me. Leaning that way for sure.

[pilebuck13]

KVB I have asked for your forecast on the razorbacks and Vermont match up line is blowing my mind

[KVB]

KVB I have asked for your forecast on the razorbacks and Vermont match up line is blowing my mind

That line opened close to my non predictive public gauge of Arky winning by 6 points.

We're seeing that drop though.

My stacking forecast has Arky winning by 3.

Let me say this, we have seen some seriously high action on this game. Its interesting it's the one you point out.

From my sources, as of right now, this is the second most highly traded NCAA tourney game that isn't tonight, with tomorrow's first 4 game with Notre Dame having more volume.

But as of all the scheduled games starting Thursday and Friday, Arky/Vermont has the most volume around the world by far. The public tends to like Arky, but there has been some serious early money on Vermont.

Next up is Mich/Colo St, with action on Michigan.

[KVB]

I'm a little surprsied Vtech doesn't have more volume, seems like that was a gift with them facing Texas.

Probably why #6 Texas is going to be a pickem soon against #11 Vtech.

[pilebuck13]

Thanks yah wild lime movement going down definitely seen lots jump early on Arkansas-5.5 seems to be a mistake

[Da Manster!]

Hi pilebuck...I've got Utah ST (-3.5) on my picks thread......I totally agree with your reasoning...Oregon has way underachieved this year and just running out the string while Utah ST would love to knock off a PAC-12 team on their home court...with or without Richardson, I don't think it's going to matter...I'm laying off the VCU game...Princeton was the best team in the IVY league this year despite not winning their conference tournament...they are 23-6 and a very well coached team by former player Mitch Henderson who played under the legendary coach Pete Carril.

[Tanko]

Agree, don't like Oregon.

Wyoming is in the bubbble games for the NCAA tourney. They are NOT a popular bet.

In fact...



Indiana knocked off Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney. I have Indiana winning by 2 points, add the market presure and I get a Wyoming +4 bet.

I also have Cleveland St at +11.5, another contrarian play but a different type of contrarian strategy.

Wow.
KVB couldn't agree more on your picks. I have Wyoming +4 tonight. It think the public may be a little too enthralled with the Hoosiers after their B10 tourny play.

I'm also on Utah St -4. I modeled the game w/ Utah St winning by 7.

The only difference between us is I took Xavier -11. I think we're talking two teams that are on completely different levels of performance and I think Xavier will cover but it might be closer than I'd like.

[Tanko]

I'm a little surprsied Vtech doesn't have more volume, seems like that was a gift with them facing Texas.

Probably why #6 Texas is going to be a pickem soon against #11 Vtech.

And it is a pickem now.

[pilebuck13]

Hi pilebuck...I've got Utah ST (-3.5) on my picks thread......I totally agree with your reasoning...Oregon has way underachieved this year and just running out the string while Utah ST would love to knock off a PAC-12 team on their home court...with or without Richardson, I don't think it's going to matter...I'm laying off the VCU game...Princeton was the best team in the IVY league this year despite not winning their conference tournament...they are 23-6 and a very well coached team by former player Mitch Henderson who played under the legendary coach Pete Carril.

Agree like Utah gladly laid the points Princeton Ughhh yah line is all over the place -8 some places. -3.5 you got a really good number

[KVB]

Came back in to say I'm liking Utah St more and more, even with the line move from 4 to 5. I don't like Oregon here at all.

I think we're all in agreement here.

I have Utah St winning by double digits, but I feel like some aspects were up in the air on some of those forecasts. Like Oregon's Will Richardson. Not sure if he's coming back or not.

Either way, I wouldn't touch Oregon with DDD's ten foot pole, much less JJ Gold's 2.5 incher.

[KVB]

...The only difference between us is I took Xavier -11. I think we're talking two teams that are on completely different levels of performance and I think Xavier will cover but it might be closer than I'd like.

Yeah, that Cleveland state is one of those contrarian type plays where, rather than everything on one side, and taking the other, I'm still going with what I determine as sharp trades, that differ from the public, but are still on the same side.

For example: Say I determine that the public is on team A at 58% of the tickets, but I also determine that 90% of the money is also on team A. There's still a difference in my perception of public and sharp opinion, enough to potentially put me on the same side as the public "tickets".

There is more than one way to skin the contrarian cat and Cleveland St falls into this other category.

We will differ on our models here. One of the reasons I believe sharper money and even some of the public is on Cleveland St is that across a spectrum of forecasts that I make, I actually have Cleveland St winning the game outright in many of them. Some by as many as 5 points.

I'm not going to be the only one.

Add this to what I determine are "sharp trades" across the marketplace and I can see why my info keeps showing a lot of money and tickets on Cleveland St.

My worry here is that the books aren't really dropping the line enough. I'd like to see it fall off of 11 or we very well could be seeing the books taking a position on Xavier.

That's good for you, not for me. Let's see if we get to 10. I don't see how it gets to -11.5, at least not in the current market.

[Mackballs]

Princeton best player entered transfer portal and is not playing tonight or in this tournament FYI.

[KVB]

Princeton best player entered transfer portal and is not playing tonight or in this tournament FYI.

Yeah, that's a crazy one. They are post grads, three guys total, and aren't allowed to play next year because of Ivy League rules. They were given an extra year because of COVID.

I guess NIT wasn't good enough for them.

[pilebuck13]

Texas southern match up line pretty much stagnant seems to be good line

[KVB]

Texas southern match up line pretty much stagnant seems to be good line

Agreed.

I have Texas South winning by 6 and the public gauge has 4.

Not surprised to see 3 hit 3.5, maybe we see 4, but yeah, not a lot of wiggle room in that one.

I think the public doesn't have a grasp of the teams so we are just seeing that little touch of public picking up the favorites they love so much.

I think the books have it pretty split on their end too.

[KVB]

When it comes to the books' end, where they are, here's what I think.

I think the biggest positions right now that the books are taking are in St. Bonaventure and Princeton.

They are holding those lines while taking in massive action on Colorado and VCU respectively.

Where I see "sharp money" differing the most from "public money" from a compilation of various sources, both online and by phone, trades in the market, etc, are in Utah St and Vanderbilt, where those teams are the "sharp" side.

They are big differences too.

[KVB]

...They are holding those lines while taking in massive action on Colorado and VCU respectively...

"Massive action" is a bit strong.

Let's just say most the action, lol. There isn't the kind of volume on these games that would really make me look at betting with the books here.

To be clear, when we side with the books as the books take a side, the win percentage is much higher when betting volume is higher.

[pilebuck13]

Agreed.

I have Texas South winning by 6 and the public gauge has 4.

Not surprised to see 3 hit 3.5, maybe we see 4, but yeah, not a lot of wiggle room in that one.

I think the public doesn't have a grasp of the teams so we are just seeing that little touch of public picking up the favorites they love so much.

I think the books have it pretty split on their end too.

Agree my play of the day is Oregon riding w that one Master got a epic number but I’ll lay the 5. Let’s get it bro

[pavyracer]

Take the points in all games. Most of the teams do not want to play in this tournament.

[Art Vandelay]

Take the points in all games. Most of the teams do not want to play in this tournament.

Yes, dogs always do quite well in this tourney

[jjgold]

KVB a mastermind

Good luck tonight Buckles

[pilebuck13]

Thanks gold where everyone else at anyone wanna discuss some games or what come on shit

[pilebuck13]

Utah wow

[Da Manster!]

Utah wow

No one saw this coming...Oregon played like shit down the stretch getting blown out by double digits by mediocre garbage schools like Washington, Arizona ST, California, and Wazzu!...SMH!...

[jjgold]

I blindly bet Oregon just because it was an underdog

[thetrinity]

Agree, don't like Oregon.

Wyoming is in the bubbble games for the NCAA tourney. They are NOT a popular bet.

In fact...



Indiana knocked off Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney. I have Indiana winning by 2 points, add the market presure and I get a Wyoming +4 bet.

I also have Cleveland St at +11.5, another contrarian play but a different type of contrarian strategy.

Ucf against Michigan was the last play? Do you not do conference games? This was in response to the contrarian fund not being used for 2.5 months

[GT21Megatron]

Wazzou-3

[pilebuck13]

Wazzou-3

I like it

[KVB]

Ucf against Michigan was the last play? Do you not do conference games? This was in response to the contrarian fund not being used for 2.5 months

UCF/Mich??

No, last KVB NCAAB Contrarian Fund plays were ODU +1 and Wisc GB +8.5, both on December 30th last year. I don't believe I posted the Fund this season at all though.

Basically, the markets never did trade in the territory where contrarian plays triggered. I was set to identify any that might come through, as usual, but we never did get the volume, forecasts, line movement, and overall markets to trigger plays. This was true all through conference play. There simply wasn't much of a convincing contrarian market.

Earlier in the season there seem to be COVID issues, breaking up full nights of basketball, really reducing the market voume and opportunity. Didn't have many plays then either.

A shitty Contrarian year for any contrarian NCAAB bettors, not because of performance, but because there just hasn't been much opportunity.

[KVB]

Utah wow

Disappointed a lot of bettors tonight. Oregon got mean on them.

Just laid down second half...

[pilebuck13]

Disappointed a lot of bettors tonight. Oregon got mean on them.

Just laid down second half...

I mean explain the market on that one -5 😳

[pilebuck13]

Cowboys bout to do the same thing I had no faith in that squad since the dropped the ball to boise

[thetrinity]

Kinda felt like Wyoming gave the game away.