Monday Plays??? Packers Blowout?

[jjgold]

A lot of close games this past weekend NFL and prime time games

I think it is time

[Vyasports]

[BIGDAY]

Packahs Undah EZ

[RudyRuetigger]

yes


probably packers

[carolinakid]

yes the total is the play in this one today

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

yes the total is the play in this one today

You thinking under ck?

[carolinakid]

^^^yes

[carolinakid]

Weather for Lambeau Field

Green Bay, WI Elevation: ft. Capacity: 72,515 Stadium Type: Open Air Playing Surface: Grass Relative Wind Direction

Current Conditions Last Updated: 3:53 AM PDT 68° Dew Point: Barometer: Humidity: Wind Speed: 63 29.9 84 6.9 MPH

Forecast Weather Summary Sep 20 11 AM Sep 20 2 PM Sep 20 5 PM Sep 20 8 PM Sep 20 11 PM 77 ° 71 ° 73 ° 72 ° 69 ° slight chance thunderstorms slight chance thunderstorms chance thunderstorms definitely moderate rain showers

Forecast Weather Details Sep 20 11 AM Sep 20 2 PM Sep 20 5 PM Sep 20 8 PM Sep 20 11 PM Dew Point 67 68 67 68 67 Humidity 71 90 81 87 94 Wind Dir S S S S S Wind Speed 12 MPH 12 MPH 12 MPH 11 MPH 13 MPH

[Snowball]

What went wrong with GB. Do I want them tonight? 2 INTs and lack of time on the field for offense..
GB ToP 25:24, NO ToP 34:36

Rodgers only 28 attempts at New Orleans, 2 INTs, low Time of Possession. Yet, Adams was targeted 8 times, 5 recs. Valdes-Scanting tgt 8, rec 3 (pressure of lack of communication). Lazard tgt 4, rec 2, but both V-S and Lazard are (-160) for Over 2.5 recs tonight. So let's check 2020.
Adams is O 7.5 (-125), U (-125). Lines and whether or not your book places props without a hook varies. Yardage is much higher for Adams because Adams is Aaron's deepest target.

In 2020, Rodgers top targets: Adams 149, Jones, V-S both 63, Tonyan (TE) 59, Lazard 46.
Catch ratio: Tonyan 88.1, Adams 77.2, V-S 73.3, Lazard 71.7, Jones 74.6

Last year, the Packers also hosted Detroit in Week 2, wining 42-21. So they are likely to pull up a similar offensive game plan.
Aaron was 18/30/240. 2 TD. His targets were Jones 8, V-S 7, Lazard 5, Adams 3, Tonyan 2.

Seems odd that Adams wasn't targeted more. Perhaps because they didn't need the long ball risk.
So let's check ToP. Yes, 34:46 to 25:14. In Game 2 at Detroit: Same Time of Possession, Ball Control plan. ToP GB 35:30, DET 24:30.
Rodgers 26/33/290/3/0. TGTs: Adams 10, V-S 6, Tonyan 5, Jones 2, Lazard 2.

Same ball control game, but Adams was targeted a lot more.

Lions starting CB's: AO, JC, DR. Safetys: JK, DH,TW. So, check game 1 to see if there was an out Rodgers was exploiting. Yes, Safety Harris dnp.
I think this explains why Adams was targeted so much more in Gm 2. So who is DET starting in the secondary tonight?

CB's: AO; Corey Ballentine will be filling in for the IR Okudah.

Supposedly, although it could be situational, Harris and Walker have switched roles, with Walker becoming the Free Safety and Harris going to Strong in 2021.

The Lions need another CB desperately. They reached out to Quinton Dunbar who they cut in August after he took a LoA, but Dunbar wants to explore other options. They signed Daryl Worley to the practice squad.

Obviously, this situation makes at least one lane a vulnerability, probably both, with the Lions stronger in the middle of the field at safety. Expect Rodgers to target the lanes more than the middle. This means less passes to Jones and Tonyan, more to Adams, V-S and Lazard. With the evidence up that Adams was employed to exploit the same out (Okudah) last year, Adams is priced higher.

Green Bay is likely to make good against last week's problems at New Orleans, shine on the offensive end tonight, and score over 30 no problem. It will be easy pickings for Rodgers. The only threat to the P/R props is if they have a large lead in the 4Q and just run out the clock. Still, with the weaknesses in the Lions, and to satiate the Home Opener crowd at Lambeau on MNF, Rodgers and his receivers might pad the stats. Due to the Lions being stronger in the middle than the lanes, I'm going with the WR's only. Rather take Adams on yardage than need 8 rec's.

Plays:

GB TT alt. total prop spread

Aaron Rodgers Total Passing Yards Over 281.5 (-115)

Marquez-Scantling Total Receiving Yards Over 38.5 (-115)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Total Receptions Over 2.5 (-160)

Davante Adams Total Receiving Yards: Over 84.5 (-115)

Allen Lazard Total Receiving Yards: Over 32.5 (-115)
Allen Lazard Total Receptions: Over 2.5 (-160)

weather forecast... very warm, cloudy, maybe some drizzle, maybe not.
the threat of a real thunderstorm is not during game time, but later, after 1 am.

https://darksky.net/forecast/44.5135,-88.0131/us12/en

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Nice writeup snowball

[JIBBBY]

Packers may really suck this year. Tread with caution.

[pabonaparte]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3674595-lions-12-5k.html

free tip for jjgold ^^

[KiDBaZkiT]

Definite Packers blowout. Get ready to hear this song about 5 or 6 times tonight…..

[klemopixx]

The national telecasts are over fests. Why would tonight (49) be any different? Don't overthink this.

[Snowball]

forecast update. cloudy but no rain until at least 11pm Green Bay time
at which there is still just a 40% change of LIGHT rain after 11pm.

https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-forecast/hourly/green-bay-wi-54304

[KVB]

MLB BAL/PHI

It's the last game on the rotation but not the latest game. Anyway, I like the OVER 8 and am paying as close to even money as I can.

If you can get BAL/PHI OVER 8 at plus money it would be a little gem.

[KVB]

A lot of close games this past weekend NFL and prime time games

I think it is time

UNDER 49.5 and 49.

How low can they go?

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[Tuesday]

GB
TOR
TEX
STL

[carolinakid]

in the bases i like oakland under 8.5 tonite

[KVB]

Picked two better than 2-1 Contrarian plays with DET and TEX...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

912	20-Sep	DET +203
913		TEX +238

Backbone plays. Heritge with the generous TEX line.

Couple of longshots.

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[KVB]

Some of the reality today....

You know, there is this huge expectation that the Packers wil come back strong, a lot pressure in the media for the rebound game.

A lot, all day long, all week long.

But the books didn't capitalize on this situation to take a position. The truth his, this spread is much more evenly split than many would believe. GB and Rogers not such the public play that you would think.

In fact, there is liability on the moneyline, DET is getting the action. The line could drop late.

What's going on here? If it's upset, it sure as hell isn't a surprise. They have created the market situation for Rogers to do what everyone wants him to do and it not hurt.

I'm on UNDER 49.5 (-105) and UNDER 49 tonight. It's been a bit of Totals story with the pros getting their UNDER on the last game Saturday night (Hawaii), getting burned on the UNDER last night (NFL) and now those bettors are on the UNDER tonight.

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[carolinakid]

^^^^^^^^thank god she has small , big would be like the sound a football makes hitting the goal posts

[johnnyvegas13]

^^^^

that was at a badger halftime show???

[Darkside Magick]

Detroit Tigers -1.5 +347 vs Chicago White Sox

[KVB]

Detroit Tigers -1.5 +347 vs Chicago White Sox

Leggo Darkside, we're the "worst cappers at SBR" !!!!

[KVB]

^^^^

that was at a badger halftime show???

lol it looks like

[KVB]

^^^^^^^^thank god she has small , big would be like the sound a football makes hitting the goal posts

Wait, I thought you didn't like girls with sports plays and analysis.

I post a limbo stunt instead of some random bikini and you start talking ?

















Just messing with you CK, it's all good pal. And yes, if she had that would have never had worked.

[KVB]

I'm here to tellyou that the Detroit ML is getting slammed.

Just crazy, yet the line stays so high. The Green Bay win is going to be good for the books.

What a weird situation here. They are taking a position.

This line simply has to pull of of 11.5.

[Darkside Magick]

I'm here to tellyou that the Detroit ML is getting slammed.

Just crazy, yet the line stays so high. The Green Bay win is going to be good for the books.

What a weird situation here. They are taking a position.

This line simply has to pull of of 11.5.

I see Packers by 14 here

[KVB]

I see Packers by 14 here

Somehow the media and public narrative can come true here and the books not get hurt.

The writing is on the wall.

Pros should lose those dirty ML bets on DET, spread could be either and it's clean, but I think the UNDER is what comes through.

I think...lol.

[Darkside Magick]

Detroit Tigers -1.5 +347 vs Chicago White Sox

Had them by 2..

[Darkside Magick]

Arizona Diamondbacks +175 vs Atlanta Braves

[Tuesday]

DET +11.5 got langed.

[RudyRuetigger]

yes


probably packers

[johnnyvegas13]

DET +11.5 got langed.

Ya time to over it now