Any trend on home team going from fav to dog?

Chi_archie · 05-02-21, 05:25 PM

a very big % of games that come up in a back testing data scrap would come from games with late injury/personnel news

I'm assuming today's move has to do with Jaylen Brown Status

carolinakid · 05-02-21, 05:35 PM

a lot of these circle games , like the boston game today, it better to stay far away from

RudyRuetigger · 05-02-21, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

a very big % of games that come up in a back testing data scrap would come from games with late injury/personnel news

I'm assuming today's move has to do with Jaylen Brown Status

Yes, you cannot cap that

Too many variables

What a rook

Fatty must play chess

carolinakid · 05-02-21, 05:47 PM

update for the boston game

05/02/21 03:42:24pm Pacific
NBA: Game 551-552			Injury	Status	Games	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK
Boston Celtics	SG	Jaylen Brown	Ankle	Probable	57	24.8	5.9	3.3	1.3	0.6
is upgraded to probable Sunday vs Portland

KVB · 05-02-21, 05:51 PM

How far you want to stretch it Minny?

For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

But, here's some fodder for you...

Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

Thats 105-105-2.

Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

MinnesotaFats · 05-02-21, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by KVB

How far you want to stretch it Minny?

For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

But, here's some fodder for you...

Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

Thats 105-105-2.

Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

That's a really fukked up stat lol

KVB · 05-02-21, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Yes, you cannot cap that

Too many variables..

This is not entirely true but you do make the obvious point.

You can cap that, though.

Like I keep saying, the future of capping NBA probabilities about capping a players probability to play.

They have played so many games with this questionable and will he or won't he that there is enough data to gauge the probability of a questionable or game time decision playing.

Yes it's advanced, but I've worked with that very software myself.

I know that more than one group uses similar stuff.

It's all about information and how it's given, at least most of it.

KVB · 05-02-21, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

That's a really fukked up stat lol

Isn't it though?

Plenty more where that came from.

jjgold · 05-02-21, 06:25 PM

Point spread covers are all random every sport

If you do know that quit gambling

KVB · 05-02-21, 06:30 PM

Day to day weather seems random too, Gold, but the overall climate has trends.

Just like in that jagged little chart above.

If you know a beginning and end point, you knock randomness down to the level of watching games.

Which you know we don't do.

funnyb25 · 05-02-21, 06:35 PM

Tough....I usually bet early....but for late bettors when line crosses 0, it should be a "no play"

pologq · 05-02-21, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

How far you want to stretch it Minny?

For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

But, here's some fodder for you...

Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

Thats 105-105-2.

Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

kvb with the solid data