Buffalo at Kansas City - Pick and Write-Up

[thomorino]

I think the value is with KC -3 -115 risking 4.6 units to win 4.

The key to beating Kansas City is to slow the game down and run the ball, and get consistent pressure on Mahomes without having to blitz. This is why the 49ers had a double digit lead on the Chiefs in the 4th quarter of the super bowl.If you try to outscore the Chiefs with temp and spread the Chiefs usually win because their weapons are better.

The Bills had a good regular season, but they didn't play any of the top teams except an overrated Pittsburgh team that was dealing with injuries in the secondary.

The Bills 2 weaknesses are their running game is trash, and even worse with Moss, their more physical running back out, and their front four is bad, which is why they struggled against the run all year. The Bill linebacking corp and secondary is strong, but their front four is weak, and you can't usually blitz mahomes because you have to play man and Mahomes mobility makes blitzing hard.

Mahomes has played his best in big games and this is Allen's biggest game of his career by far, the Bills receiving corp is dealing with injuries too with Brown and Beasley both hurt.

[jjgold]

lol value

KC ML stop the BS

[Booya711]

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm taking the Bills with the hook. They did shut down Baltimore last weekend, and Baltimore is all about the run. I think that Buffalo tries to trade TD for TD and in the end they lose buy a field goal. There is something going on with K.C. Last week against a totally weak Clowns defense, they didn't pull away like they usually do. I guess you can say that My mahomie was knocked out so they can be excused, but I don't think they are running on all cylinders now for a month or 2 so I expect more of the same tomorrow.

[thomorino]

I'm taking the Bills with the hook. They did shut down Baltimore last weekend, and Baltimore is all about the run. I think that Buffalo tries to trade TD for TD and in the end they lose buy a field goal. There is something going on with K.C. Last week against a totally weak Clowns defense, they didn't pull away like they usually do. I guess you can say that My mahomie was knocked out so they can be excused, but I don't think they are running on all cylinders now for a month or 2 so I expect more of the same tomorrow.

They didn’t pull away because mahomes got hurt

[thomorino]

You are a dumb shit

[Booya711]

[lonegambler23]

u need to look up the definition of value

[mjsuax13]

Bills ml

[thomorino]

u need to look up the definition of value

2 dumb shits

[thomorino]

Bills ml

You are a dumb shit

[Booya711]

[thomorino]

You are a dumb shit

[GT21Megatron]

Bills ml

Fade

[texhooper]

They didn’t pull away because mahomes got hurt

Yeah morino I sometimes give you a hard time but this person who you responded to is definitely a dumbshit

[Booya711]

[jjgold]

It’s hilarious when anybody uses value what the hell are you talking about everyone’s down tons of money their lifetime and they think they have value

[thomorino]

You are a dumb shit

[hehfest]

I agree with your analysis in general. Bills just don't run much. It doesn't mean they "can't" run the ball, they just don't do it. I haven't watched them enough to know if they "try" to run more how it would work. Just seems they pass constantly and that's what they do best.

I would take my fastest player on my team, and put him to run with Hill. Isiah McKenzie? Can't burn Diggs on Defense. John Brown? I remember Belichek did this years ago. Take whomever is your KR and put him on Hill?

I just don't see how Buffalo can outscore them, and the Chiefs D always seems to show up in the playoffs too. Shut Mayfield down very good last week. We didn't see the Brownies run on them like I wish they would of stuck with, but the Chiefs were ready.

I saw them load the box on early downs against Cleveland. The Bills might be able to burn them on lots of draws and RPO's because they will be playing for the pass this week.

I'm still not sure where I go on this game, but you make some good points Morino. Once again, good write-up. I expected more detailed one though. Perhaps, one full page.......

[mjsuax13]

It’s hilarious when anybody uses value what the hell are you talking about everyone’s down tons of money their lifetime and they think they have value

Dumb shit.

[thomorino]

It’s hilarious when anybody uses value what the hell are you talking about everyone’s down tons of money their lifetime and they think they have value

You are a dumb shit

[thomorino]

I agree with your analysis in general. Bills just don't run much. It doesn't mean they "can't" run the ball, they just don't do it. I haven't watched them enough to know if they "try" to run more how it would work. Just seems they pass constantly and that's what they do best.

I would take my fastest player on my team, and put him to run with Hill. Isiah McKenzie? Can't burn Diggs on Defense. John Brown? I remember Belichek did this years ago. Take whomever is your KR and put him on Hill?

I just don't see how Buffalo can outscore them, and the Chiefs D always seems to show up in the playoffs too. Shut Mayfield down very good last week. We didn't see the Brownies run on them like I wish they would of stuck with, but the Chiefs were ready.

I saw them load the box on early downs against Cleveland. The Bills might be able to burn them on lots of draws and RPO's because they will be playing for the pass this week.

I'm still not sure where I go on this game, but you make some good points Morino. Once again, good write-up. I expected more detailed one though. Perhaps, one full page.......

The Bills don’t run because their running game isn’t very good, they couldn’t run at all in short yardage in the last 2 playoff games.

[hehfest]

The Bills don’t run because their running game isn’t very good, they couldn’t run at all in short yardage in the last 2 playoff games.

Sure, then.......can't run.....can't win. 9/10 times in big games. maybe 8/10.

[thomorino]

Tyreke hill over 77.5 yards receiving -134 risking 2.68 units to win 2

[Kermit]

I have a lot riding on Josh Allen over 305.5 passing yards.

[Allure]

Tyreke hill over 77.5 yards receiving -134 risking 2.68 units to win 2

That total looks suspiciously low

Hill and only 77.5?

[Kermit]

That total looks suspiciously low

Hill and only 77.5?

That is what it is at my book. It was -115, but is at -134 now. That is about his average.

[thedenthead]

It’s hilarious when anybody uses value what the hell are you talking about everyone’s down tons of money their lifetime and they think they have value

Lmao thanks for the reality check coach

[Allure]

That is what it is at my book. It was -115, but is at -134 now. That is about his average.

I was more questioning why the total was set that low to begin with. I mean Hill and only 77.5? That is free money, or is it?

[mpaschal34]

Ugh....I took the Chiefs.

I’ve been morono’ed!

[thomorino]

Ugh....I took the Chiefs.

I’ve been morono’ed!

You are a dumb shit

[thomorino]

I was more questioning why the total was set that low to begin with. I mean Hill and only 77.5? That is free money, or is it?

It’s low because some teams double him, I don’t expect the Bills with white to do that and the chiefs use him more in big games, they keep his use rate down in the regular season because of injury concerns.

[thomorino]

Hill prop bet winner

to chiefs almost always use hill much more in big games

[Allure]

That Hill total was a late New Years Eve gift

Didn't play it but damn what an easy bet that was

[Otters27]

Should be good Morino