Tampa Bay at Green Bay - Pick and Write-Up

[thomorino]

I know a guy named bony Moroni
He is nuthin but a dumb shit phony


Gotta see him lose and troll with his dunce cap on
Not very smart, just skull and bone

I troll him and he loves me
Oh how happy no he can't be.
Shits his pants underneath the big screen TV

He's my one trick pony, he's my fade for hire
he's a real up setter, he's a real live wire
Everybody burned when moroni chalks higher

He's something to see, he actually changes the line

I fade he, he cusses me
Oh how crappy, wow he can't see
Shits his pants underneath the big screen TV


Told my mama and a papa too
Just exactly what moroni can do

Gonna get buried every night he lost a for-tune
And I'll boogie by the light of a moroni moon

when's his next bet? I hope it's soon!


I fade he, he cusses me
Oh how happy now we can be
Watching one trick Roni
Shit his pants underneath the big screen TV

You are a dumb shit

[PAULYPOKER]

Moroni! always Remember what the dormouse said:
"Feed your head. Feed your head. Feed your head"

[thomorino]

Moroni! always Remember what the dormouse said:
"Feed your head. Feed your head. Feed your head"

You are a dumb shit

[jjgold]

You can’t blame a loss on variance I’ve never heard of that before in my life, it’s a loss, you have a lot of wins that way to

Stop the BS I’ll have your bar license pulled

[JayLA]

You can’t blame a loss on variance I’ve never heard of that before in my life, it’s a loss, you have a lot of wins that way to

Stop the BS I’ll have your bar license pulled

not sure about sports betting but there's variance in poker for sure

[Buckandadime]

Moroni! always Remember what the dormouse said:
"Feed your head. Feed your head. Feed your head"

Its too late..
The men on the chessboard have already gotten up and told him where to go..

[lonegambler23]

and lets get shiiiit straight in here. your live plays dont fukking count pal. no one knows the lines u can get live unless u post your tickets.

[KnuckleHeadz]

“Rodgers has always been much better at home than on the road because of how many presnap adjustments he makes with protection and changing the play, and he's one of the best in the league at making presnap adjustments, which he can't usually do on the road because of crowd noise.”

Was it bad variance they lost those 3 games this year considering they didn’t have to worry about crowd noise?

[Goat Milk]

Gonna be a shootout.

GB secondary is trash as well outside of Jaire.

Their other 2 corners are straight garbage.

Their run D is trash.

Both teams will put up points.

[hotcross]

Hey morino, my brother, just wondering, do you ever get any positive variance on your wins? Or it's only the losses when variance occurs? I'll hang up and listen, thanks brother.

Morono couldn't even begin to understand the reality of that question

[hotcross]

-6.3 units for the playoffs after bad variance with Mahomes getting hurt and the Saints fumble in the second half

I think the value is with Green Bay at -3 -114, risking 4.56 units to win 4.........

Smart. Good thinking to begin the post with that opening statement
Gives you instant credibility for any newbie just finding the site and your post

[PAULYPOKER]

I think the value is with Green Bay at -3 -114, risking 4.56 units to win 4.

[thomorino]

You can’t blame a loss on variance I’ve never heard of that before in my life, it’s a loss, you have a lot of wins that way to

Stop the BS I’ll have your bar license pulled

Its too late..
The men on the chessboard have already gotten up and told him where to go..

and lets get shiiiit straight in here. your live plays dont fukking count pal. no one knows the lines u can get live unless u post your tickets.

“Rodgers has always been much better at home than on the road because of how many presnap adjustments he makes with protection and changing the play, and he's one of the best in the league at making presnap adjustments, which he can't usually do on the road because of crowd noise.”

Was it bad variance they lost those 3 games this year considering they didn’t have to worry about crowd noise?

Morono couldn't even begin to understand the reality of that question

Smart. Good thinking to begin the post with that opening statement
Gives you instant credibility for any newbie just finding the site and your post

Dumb shits

[JayLA]

Dumb shits

what happened to "fukk off" ?

[PAULYPOKER]

Its too late..
The men on the chessboard have already gotten up and told him where to go..

[sweep]

You can’t blame a loss on variance I’ve never heard of that before in my life, it’s a loss, you have a lot of wins that way to

Stop the BS I’ll have your bar license pulled

not sure about sports betting but there's variance in poker for sure

Agree with both of you...

Variance is a break from the norm/average over a small sample size. What we have here with Morino is know as "Standard Error". A step child of "Standard Deviation".

A steady stream of tire fire threads with loser after loser after loser......Laying heavy juice on props/halves/quarters, betting every market with no edge whatsoever.

[Booya711]

Fuk you Morino

[Hman]

I played green bay -3

I know some of you don't believe in the revenge factor scenario, but this one is just that.

If I recall, green bay was up 10-0 on tampa earlier in the year.

Then tampa started blitzing and a couple of throws got away from rodgers which turned into picks and turned everything around.

You can bet that the Bucs will have the same game plan, but you can also be sure that Rodgers & co will be ready this time with adjustments.

[Buckandadime]

Fuk you Morino

Good variance to you dumbshit...

[sweep]

I played green bay -3

I know some of you don't believe in the revenge factor scenario, but this one is just that.

If I recall, green bay was up 10-0 on tampa earlier in the year.

Then tampa started blitzing and a couple of throws got away from rodgers which turned into picks and turned everything around.

You can bet that the Bucs will have the same game plan, but you can also be sure that Rodgers & co will be ready this time with adjustments.

GB was cruising in that game until Rodgers took this hit towards end of 1st Q:


(click watch on youtube)

GB was coming off of a bye wk and TB was on 10 days rest after playing previous Thurs......Rodgers noodle was all squirrely after that forearm to the head

[beavis13]

what happened to "fukk off" ?

I really miss "not that i care, but..."

[thomorino]

Agree with both of you...

Variance is a break from the norm/average over a small sample size. What we have here with Morino is know as "Standard Error". A step child of "Standard Deviation".

A steady stream of tire fire threads with loser after loser after loser......Laying heavy juice on props/halves/quarters, betting every market with no edge whatsoever.

Fuk you Morino

Good variance to you dumbshit...

Dumb shits

[TheMoneyShot]

Morino takes Green Bay....

Tampa Bay is the right side...

Thank you.

[thomorino]

Morino takes Green Bay....

Tampa Bay is the right side...

Thank you.

You are a dumb shit

[thomorino]

Aaron Jones over 61.5 yards rushing -110 risking 2.2 units to win 2

[KegKosmo]

-6.3 units for the playoffs after bad variance with Mahomes getting hurt and the Saints fumble in the second half

I think the value is with Green Bay at -3 -114, risking 4.56 units to win 4.

Rodgers has struggled in the playoffs since winning the super bowl, but if you look at nearly all the big games he's struggled in since winning the super bowl, they have been on the road against teams like Seattle and San Francisco. This is the first time Rodgers has gotten a conference championship game at home since winning the super bowl.

Rodgers has always been much better at home than on the road because of how many presnap adjustments he makes with protection and changing the play, and he's one of the best in the league at making presnap adjustments, which he can't usually do on the road because of crowd noise.

Green Bay lost to Tampa Bay earlier in the year, but that was Green Bay's first game coming off a bye and they weren't sharp. Brady has struggled against every good defense he's played this year, including the Saints last week, when he barely had nearly 50 yards passing in the first half.

The Packers defense was top 5 against the pass last year and their run defense is significantly improved this year with Kirksey, they shutdown Henry, and the only game their run defense struggled significantly was against Minnesota at home in a flat spot with Kirksey out.

The Saints had many injuries with Harris getting hurt during the game, Hill out, and Thomas not fully healthy, Green Bay is fully healthy except for Bakhtari, and Green Bay's offensive line is strong even without him, Rodgers is also much more mobile than Brees and has far better arm strength.

Tampa Bay's pass rush is solid, but their secondary outside of Davis is garbage, and that's why they struggled against a backup quarterback against Washington in Heinicke, his mobility prevent their pass rush from being able to protect their back end. Tampa Bay's pass defense has struggled all year, giving up nearly 400 yards passing to Matt Ryan when he didn't have Julio Jones about a month ago, and Tampa Bay won't be able to rely on their pass rush against Rodgers and the Packer offensive line. Rodgers has also consistently been among the league best against the blitz which Bowles likes to do a lot.

Teams have also been able to run on Tampa Bay the last month of the season with their starting nose tackle vea out, and the Saints had success running with Kamara most of the game.

Why do so many people sh.it on this guy? Decent write up and he’s trying to be helpful. Is it bc he lies about his losses or something?

[Auto Donk]

weeder alone is reason enough to back up the truck; throw this garbage in on top of it, bet the farm.........

best play today is parlaying the unders......

weather, covid, and gay boy rodgers......

[BOA12]

weeder alone is reason enough to back up the truck; throw this garbage in on top of it, bet the farm.........

best play today is parlaying the unders......

weather, covid, and gay boy rodgers......

Actually balmy. BOL A D

[thomorino]

weeder alone is reason enough to back up the truck; throw this garbage in on top of it, bet the farm.........

best play today is parlaying the unders......

weather, covid, and gay boy rodgers......

You are a dumb shit

[thomorino]

weeder alone is reason enough to back up the truck; throw this garbage in on top of it, bet the farm.........

best play today is parlaying the unders......

weather, covid, and gay boy rodgers......

Washington’s backup quarterback moved the ball easily on Tampa’s defense, I don’t see value with the under

[mjsuax13]

Agree with both of you...

Variance is a break from the norm/average over a small sample size. What we have here with Morino is know as "Standard Error". A step child of "Standard Deviation".

A steady stream of tire fire threads with loser after loser after loser......Laying heavy juice on props/halves/quarters, betting every market with no edge whatsoever.

Nailed it.

[209 Life]

Green Bay wins, They got the best WR in the league, Fresno ST product Davante Adams

[Zlaniner]

Green bay, Arod to D Adams dominate qb wr combo, a jones and Williams pound T Bay def, Zadarius Smith gonna make big plays on Def, Pack at home cold, Bucs beat up on Offense, Go pack get me the Money.

[thomorino]

Nailed it.

You are a dumb shit

[Seth]

i've seen a couple of your threads beginning with an explanation as to why you're down units. This is silly. Being down a few (6.3) units doesn't constitute "bad" variance in the slightest. Come on. That opening statement in your thread doesn't even need to be said; say it to yourself if thats what you believe.... I'm scared to know what you'd call it if you were actually running bad over a long stretch.

As for your guess on the game side, best of luck and thanks for writeup. Thats the side I'll be rooting for as well.