This thread might be a NHL gold mine
Stay tuned to JAY VEGAS
Stay tuned to JAY VEGAS
-
Comment -
33 goals with 4 games remaining but, probably a voided bet with the Dallas/Florida postponmentComment -
Jay i need a winner in the nhl tonightComment -
Sens +180Comment -
I think we're getting somewhere here.
Yesterday was another OVER, paying -130 at BOL. That price will go down as not moving yesterday from open to close at -130 because even though it bumped to -135, it quickly came back down. I may need to add a column for that mid day move that comes back as we are sure to see it again.
BOL testing the waters again as the Over opened -120 and they dropped it to -115. Here's the open...
There can be streaks here but as OVER's hit the line will adjust for the limit bettors that are trying to cash an UNDER here. Yesterday with 10 games in action BOL, from what I can tell, had a broad limit on the Salami, affecting every account I know of, and today that limit is lifted.7:05 PM 93 Over Goals Ov 31½ -120 -115 94 Under Goals Un 31½ 100 -105
BOL is now one goal higher than the total of lines offered...
Yesterday looked like we could bounce to the UNDER but it wasn't to be. Today BOL is not offering plus money on the UNDER, after seeing +105 and +110.
Vancouver and Edmonton aren't on the card for the first time.
I think we could finally be looking at an UNDER fort the salami here. Even money might be gone from BOL for good.
Ottawa has not played a game yet, and that's a gap in information. We're really only one game into the season for most, and that's a gap in information. Looking at the forest, patience is to pass tonight and let the OVER streak play itself out, but as we look into the trees, we see tonight's card could easily be built on UNDERs.
Not one of my forecasts for today's games breaks 6.2 total goals. The median score is 5.8 and I think both TOR/OTT and STL/COL could go UNDER despite the just over 6 point forecasts. We get 6.5 in Ottawa the extra point on the Salami.
Looking across the market I see price moves that look like sharper trades to me, although my info is not as tight as MLB. When I add it all up, for preseason forecasts, that even money was looking good. Money is swayed a bit, last nights OVER was bailed out in the late games and I think the public buying OVER's across the board.
What I initially thought could be a longer streak of Salami OVERs to set up the market, it looks to me like we are in the much more and more likely give and take type market early on.
I'm taking the UNDER 31.5 for a fade the public Friday market read...
Good Luck.15-Jan GS UNDER 31.5 (-105)
Comment -
Same odds at Bet365. I’m gonna keep pounding this under until it hits.
pulling a page from thomorinos book and going 4u on this one!
Comment -
Some basic information to add to the picture. There have been 15 games this season.
After going 3-2 in favor of the OVER on day one NHL went 6-4 in favor of the OVER on day two to bring it to 9-6 in favor of the OVER. OVER bettors are up nearly +3 units this year so far. While UNDER bettors are down about -3.5 units.
To give an idea of just how much we can usefully breakdown the market here's a few items...
These are goals and the lines across the league...
Now we really should normalize that TOTAL line as even though there have been just as many numbers above 6 as below, we have to account for the -130's at some point.HOME AWAY TOTAL TOTAL NUMBER Mean 3.27 3.27 6.53 5.90 Median 3.00 3.00 7.00 6.00
Here's the league relative to the line. In those games that go OVER, they do it by an average of 2 points, with a median of 1.5. You can see the same for those games that have gone UNDER...
We can do all of this for the league, the new divisions for this year, and especially the teams.OVER UNDER Mean 2 1.42 Median 1.5 1.25
This is just some information to help us compare teams, games, and lines to the league and market. When we find days that are broadly overestimating one side or the other, the we look to the GS for a bet. But the GS is an animal itself, which is why we're tracking it here.
Each day I'll add more layers, like where the money is falling, some history and some context to these numbers to see if we can catch hockey in a extreme.
Comment -
I like it. Bottom line, if we don't hit it's a shakeout right off the bat, something we should be able to recover from.Originally posted by Jayvegas420Same odds at Bet365. I’m gonna keep pounding this under until it hits.
pulling a page from thomorinos book and going 4u on this one!
Comment -
Looking at the under 6 1/2 in this one. Any thoughts Jay?Originally posted by Jayvegas420Comment -
The salami didn't count the postponed game. We had 10 games on the 59.5 line.Originally posted by Jayvegas420
Yet another way to look at it.
After 2 days, the actual scores are 4 goals higher per day which is 1.5 goals above the standard deviation (only two days but the structure is set)...
Now we can keep a running graph of means, medians, and the std diff for just the BOL Salami.Date # Games Salami Per Game Actual Average Std STD Line Mean Goals Difference Dev Difference 13-Jan 5 30.5 6.1 37 6.5 0 14-Jan 10 59.5 5.95 61 1.5 2.5 1.5 Tot/Avg: 15 90 6.0 98 4.0 2.5 1.5
So, through 15 games the Salami has "predicted" 90 goals, an average of 6 goals per game. But we already showed that the league is scoring 6.53 goals per game (both posted above and derived from this post's chart of 98 goals/15 games).
As time goes on of course the teams playing will matter but as far as the forest, it's no wonder todays line in that chart anticipates a season high 6.3 goals per game...
As we get more days and more games, this info can be even more useful than explaining the current lines.15-Jan 5 31.5 6.3
Not only that, but the pricing is getting back to that -130 to -135 range...
BOL now...
7:05 PM 93 Over Goals Ov 31½ -131 94 Under Goals Un 31½ 111 
Comment -
Jay my eye on you
kvb always has somethingComment -
If KBV's projected 6.5 comes though I'd kewan over.Originally posted by beavis13
brady could go off tonight, id go over 3.5 shots & over 0.5 assists +140Comment -
Thanks. Decided to pass.Originally posted by Jayvegas420Comment -
6 goals in the 1st two periods...one by Brady Tkachuck!Comment -
Happy HK's back...Comment -
Jay knows hockey
Born with a stick in his handComment -
We kewanned the over & Tkachuck had 5 SOG & an asst.Originally posted by Jayvegas420Comment -
Still can’t seem to nail the GS under.
8 units ready to be locked and loaded.Comment -
I totally fukked up here. I had UNDER 59.5 yesterday but bought it right before games went off.
Not only was the 59.5 line being repeated, but so was the price.
I fukked up not writing about it yesterday. That is my bad.
Comment -
This becomes more and more like a Thermo thread each day...Originally posted by KVBI totally fukked up here. I had UNDER 59.5 yesterday but bought it right before games went off.
Not only was the 59.5 line being repeated, but so was the price.
I fukked up not writing about it yesterday. That is my bad.
just missing prop bets and inaccurate recordComment -
59.5 over -115
trying the under again!
Its all JJ's tonight...
Jets & Jackets
GL
Comment -
Jets are severely short handed tonight. 2 of their top 6 Defencemen are out tonight and Laine is questionable.Comment -
I knew Laine was questionable, who are the two defensemen?Comment -
Originally posted by KnuckleHeadz
Comment -
Don't laugh Knuckles, 16 units on this under tonight and we are back to all squareComment -
Demelo and Poolman are the defenceman out of the lineup.Logan Stanley making his NHL debut on defense. so a win is unlikely but the Jets seem to rally around these situations. I am a diehard Jets fan. I follow this team religously. not saying they can't win but they are without key pieces. I am still hopeful. Anderson has never lost in regulation to my Jets so maybe tonight is the night. I will be pulling for them. they also have the edge in net (Jets) glComment -
The Martingale system gets u back to even at some point eh Jay
Comment -
We all know units are proportional oh, I forgot to tell everybody I was starting with 528 units
Comment -
Finally gonna hit one!
...only 22 goals with just one game left to face off.
This one's a fellas, Newton was right...
The Wink Martindale System never fails.Comment
