kansas city Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders in game discussion thread

[KVB]

Nothing beats Andy Dalton calling out "Filthy Brady" during a Monday Night game against the Steelers.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Andy Dalton using “Filthy Brady!” as a check at the line. Knows ⁦<a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/TomBrady?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TomBrady</a>⁩ isn’t watching I guess. <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/RDAOil9s80">pic.twitter.com/RDAOil9s80</a></p>&mdash; Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson/status/1178841344535609345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 1, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

Filthy Brady

[Chi_archie]

you ever tried a filthy brady on your girl, after you both had like 2-3 cups of brunch coffee????

[KVB]

you ever tried a filthy brady on your girl, after you both had like 2-3 cups of brunch coffee????

Of course, we always follow it up with a Dirty Sanchez or two as well.

[KVB]

I'm going to go ahead and leave this here.

For posterity sake...

[stake1]

Nice pick! Raiders cover first half money line on that!!!

[Da Manster!]

fukkin' goddamn refs and their flags are ruining the game!...throwing a flag on every play and most of them ticky tack and nitpicking!

[JIBBBY]

Raiders got lucky there.. INT!!

[Kermit]

Amazing. Raiders got Mahomes only other interception.

[KVB]

[JIBBBY]

Raiders just may be the KC kryptonite.

[209 Life]

Go Raiders

[krk1030]

Why is mahomes yelling at the reveiver...he was running away from the defender...isnt that the goal?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Here comes the dreaded -6.5 2nd half spread. Hammer the Raiders

[KVB]

Here comes the dreaded -6.5 2nd half spread. Hammer the Raiders

I posted in the other thread. I like Raiders here, but that's because capping supersedes this spot.

Remember, this isn't a fade spot in the NFL. Not like college.

[ARCHIVADO98]

7.5 looks good so far

[Ghenghis Kahn]

I posted in the other thread. I like Raiders here, but that's because capping supersedes this spot.

Remember, this isn't a fade spot in the NFL. Not like college.

We will see. -6.5 2nd half spread when the full game spread is over 7.5 fits into my pattern I've been seeing. This is the perfect example of trap line. People think oh KC is the way better team and all they need is a TD to win the 2nd half spread.

[KVB]

We will see. -6.5 2nd half spread when the full game spread is over 7.5 fits into my pattern I've been seeing. This is the perfect example of trap line. People think oh KC is the way better team and all they need is a TD to win the 2nd half spread.

I hear you, I've used this metric with a little bit of windowing for two decades.

This year so far, fading that favorite in the NFL would have you 3-1, +2 units, but last year you would have been 2-6.

Context and that little extra bit of capping help make this useful.

[stake1]

Eat the clock boys. Eat it up

[Ghenghis Kahn]

I hear you, I've used this metric with a little bit of windowing for two decades.

This year so far, fading that favorite in the NFL would have you 3-1, +2 units, but last year you would have been 2-6.

Context and that little extra bit of capping help make this useful.

But the difference is you used any favorites. These favorites I'm talking about are 7.5 or higher

[stake1]

The damn china virus has really ruined football. Tonight and all year in Vegas? Stadium would be raucous

[stake1]

16 plays and over 8’ minutes of clock

[JIBBBY]

Raiders D worn out now. Not good. Carr better keep pace now.

[krk1030]

Taking way too much time. That INT gonna really kill the spread.

[rm18]

Chiefs want no part of Raiders in playoffs, Chiefs are better team but these drives are so long that it really shortens the game. Combination of great running game and Carr is great on 3rd down. Also they are doing a good job of not letting KC get big plays.

[KVB]

But the difference is you used any favorites. These favorites I'm talking about are 7.5 or higher

That's right, forgot about that.

Fading those are even worse. It's should be obvious why over time this true.

You'll get more plays taking all favorites, and you'll get better results, however you try to force it.

Even the home/road split doesn't reveal a good auto fade here. It's just a fact of the NFL.

[209 Life]

Raiders!!!

[stake1]

As the man, the myth, the LEGEND said: “Jackpot Baby!!!”
Brent Musburger is The Best!!!

[KVB]

Raiders!!!

Raydahs!!!!!!!

[209 Life]

Yes flag

[JIBBBY]

DA RAIDERS!!! KC falling apart now.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

That's right, forgot about that.

Fading those are even worse. It's should be obvious why over time this true.

You'll get more plays taking all favorites, and you'll get better results, however you try to force it.

Even the home/road split doesn't reveal a good auto fade here. It's just a fact of the NFL.

You do you man. I went back this year and these bets are profitable. -6.5 2nd half spreads are rare. If you add another filter where huge favs are tied or losing after first half are rarer. These type of bets are like ranked vs unranked favorites. Nothing is guaranteed in sportsbetting but they're hammer time for me.

[209 Life]

Come on Raiders make it 2 score game

[JIBBBY]

KC imploding on the sidelines. Good sign for the Raiders. Frustration setting in.

[KVB]

You do you man. I went back this year and these bets are profitable. -6.5 2nd half spreads are rare. If you add another filter where huge favs are tied or losing after first half are rarer. These type of bets are like ranked vs unranked favorites. Nothing is guaranteed in sportsbetting but they're hammer time for me.

lol, just stating the facts you asked for. It's not about me or doing anything.

You would be winning in college and losing in NFL, how much is depending on how long you have been doing it for.

There's always give and take, but never forget the context, even if you want to fight the stats you asked for.