Coastal Carolina(3-0, SOS: 68th of 76) VS ULL tonight(3-0, SOS: 17th of 76), ncaaf

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • hubie69
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-16-10
    • 7329

    #1
    Coastal Carolina(3-0, SOS: 68th of 76) VS ULL tonight(3-0, SOS: 17th of 76), ncaaf
    My numbers have this spread right about in line with the -7.5 tonight.

    Injuries:Coastal appears to be pretty healthy.
    ULL on the other hand:
    10/13/20 DB Asjlin Washington Quarantine is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (DB #1)
    10/13/20 LB Chauncey Manac COVID-19 is "?" Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (2nd string LB)
    10/13/20 RB Chris Smith Ankle is "?" Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (3rd string RB, still a contributor)
    10/13/20 RB Elijah Mitchell COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (2nd string RB, still a contributor)
    10/13/20 OL Max Mitchell COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (starting Left Tackle)
    10/13/20 WR Dontae Fleming Lower Body is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (3rd best receiver)
    10/13/20 DL Sonny Hazard Quarantine is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (Backup)
    10/13/20 DB Brandon Bishop Lower Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 LB Joe Dillon COVID-19 is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (Starting OLB)
    10/13/20 DL Tayland Humphrey Quarantine is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (Starting D-Line)
    10/13/20 WR Peter LeBlanc Undisclosed is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina (Leading Receiver)
    10/13/20 QB Jai'ave Magalei Quarantine is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 DE Malcolm Rollins Upper Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 TE Christian Sabatini Lower Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 WR Cassius Allen Lower Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 DL Dalvin Hutchinson Lower Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 TE Neal Johnson Disciplinary is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 LB Kyle Pierre Lower Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina
    10/13/20 DL Kendall Wilkerson Upper Body is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Coastal Carolina

    This game will be played at Cajun Field (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cajun_Field). Weather Looks clear with little wind, so we shouldn't be impacted here. Should be clear.ULL has played a tougher schedule thanks to 1 game At Iowa State, which they won outright.
    ULL won their next two games by 3points and 2 points, respectively.


    Coastal does a great job on 3rd downs, ranking 4th in the Nation in 3rd down conversations. This Coastal Offense is also potent when it gets into the redzone, going 14-14 on RZ trips, including 13 TDs. Coastal also plays a very good clock control game, holding the ball for over 30 minutes in the win over Kansas and for 41 minutes vs. Arkansas State. UL offense is averaging 27:26 so far this season. Their QB is a dual threat QB, having 728 yards passing with nine TDs and one interception, as well as 139 yards rushing with two scores. The downside here is that he's a redshirt Freshman, so I expect him to make a few mistakes vs a ULL Defense allowing 21 points a game – No. 17 nationally.

    On the FlipSide of this, The cajuns have one of the top O-Lines in the group of 5, and like to run the ball. They have 3 capable backs (1 of which is questionable, 1 of which is probable). They're pretty good in the air as well despite having a few injury concerns at WR, although they look to be probable.

    I like ULL here under 7 if you can get it, despite the injuries. I think this game likely lands on 7. I tend to skew under (58.5 ish, depending where you bet at) as well. I think Coastal will eat some clock as best they can. I think the injuries will slow down ULL's offense enough to push this under. Again these are leans, not a solid feeling, just leans on both.

    Keep an eye on the injury status of these players, ULL Football twitter may be helpful (https://twitter.com/RaginCajunsFB)
  • hubie69
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-16-10
    • 7329

    #2
    Sorry for the edit, had to unpenetrate the SBR post formatting
    Comment
    • KVB
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-29-14
      • 74817

      #3
      I'm on the UPSET here Hubie...

      Originally posted by KVB
      The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund has picked up...

      169 14-Oct COASTAL CAR +245
      Good Luck whatever you end up playing.

      Comment
      • jjgold
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-20-05
        • 388179

        #4
        Hubie is just a numbers game
        Know how to read lines not players
        Comment
        • hubie69
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-16-10
          • 7329

          #5
          100% it's a numbers game. All day Long.

          Every Player, Every Person, Every THING, can be boiled down to a number

          If you're not doing this, you're a hamburger. What's up with your spreadsheet JJ?
          Comment
          • hubie69
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-16-10
            • 7329

            #6
            Originally posted by KVB
            I'm on the UPSET here Hubie...


            Good Luck whatever you end up playing.

            +7.5 is a great number here KVB. Good Luck KVB. I'm not playing ULL at -7.5. Under a sharper number, imho.
            Comment
            • lakerboy
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-02-09
              • 94379

              #7
              Not a bad midweek game
              Comment
              • hubie69
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-16-10
                • 7329

                #8
                Originally posted by hubie69
                100% it's a numbers game. All day Long.

                Every Player, Every Person, Every THING, can be boiled down to a number

                If you're not doing this, you're a hamburger. What's up with your spreadsheet JJ?
                JJ The Mods and I have your Hadicapping skills down to a singular number as well. It's not good. Might need to make a Video
                Comment
                • KVB
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 05-29-14
                  • 74817

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jjgold
                  Hubie is just a numbers game
                  Know how to read lines not players
                  Hey JJ, when you wash your face, how high do you go? How do you know when to stop?

                  Me? I get to the top of my forehead and run into a bunch of hair.

                  You?
                  Comment
                  • stackz125
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-03-16
                    • 6191

                    #10
                    I wasvable to get ULL -7 last night at pinny.
                    Comment
                    • johnnyvegas13
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 05-21-15
                      • 27897

                      #11
                      Did not know we had a decent gm tonight

                      what’s the play

                      csnt see ragers losing here
                      Comment
                      • Fred The Hammer
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-13-13
                        • 11582

                        #12
                        I've been destroying college football, but the weeknight games are a little tougher imo

                        I'm on Coastal Carolina +7.5 fairly big. LaLaf loves to pound the ball, but their QB has 4 tds/3 picks so the passing game isn't consistent.

                        La Lafayette > Iowa State
                        Coastal > Arkansas State > KState > Oklahoma & TCU

                        I know thats kind of convoluted, but the bottom line is that I don't see LaL's strength of schedule as any big advantage. Coastal is underrated imo and wins outright in a good game
                        Comment
                        • clockwise1965
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-01-13
                          • 6753

                          #13
                          +8 at my book.
                          Comment
                          • hubie69
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-16-10
                            • 7329

                            #14
                            Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
                            Did not know we had a decent gm tonight
                            FunBelt ALWAYS provides decent games.


                            Originally posted by Fred The Hammer
                            La Lafayette > Iowa State
                            Coastal > Arkansas State > KState > Oklahoma & TCU
                            I'm not a huge fan of transitive property wagering but GL (I think that's what you're doing here....I've been wrong before though). GL on whatever you're wagering. CC is underrated and +7.5/8 is a good number. It'll largely depend on if ULL can get off the field on 3rd down IMO
                            Comment
                            • johnnyvegas13
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 05-21-15
                              • 27897

                              #15
                              Starting to lean costal

                              I see some sharps on coast +7.5
                              Comment
                              • Fred The Hammer
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-13-13
                                • 11582

                                #16
                                ULL's 2 games since Iowa State:

                                11.5 point fav over Ga Southern and won 20-18
                                17 point fav over Ga State and won 34-31

                                I thought Ga State was a poor program so I looked it up. They're 26-48 in the last 6 seasons coming into 2020. I just see this one as CC is underrated and ULL is overrated, but we shall see
                                Comment
                                • Fred The Hammer
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 08-13-13
                                  • 11582

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by hubie69
                                  FunBelt ALWAYS provides decent games.



                                  I'm not a huge fan of transitive property wagering but GL (I think that's what you're doing here....I've been wrong before though). GL on whatever you're wagering. CC is underrated and +7.5/8 is a good number. It'll largely depend on if ULL can get off the field on 3rd down IMO
                                  No, I'm not either. That will bust you out fast. A>B B>C does not equal A>C, but I was just trying to make the point that hammering a decent Arkansas State team was pretty impressive. I almost bet Arkansas State last week.
                                  Comment
                                  • stackz125
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 01-03-16
                                    • 6191

                                    #18
                                    Big money and sharp money coming in on ULL
                                    Line up to 8 now.
                                    Comment
                                    • hubie69
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-16-10
                                      • 7329

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by stackz125
                                      Big money and sharp money coming in on ULL
                                      Line up to 8 now.
                                      Pinny at 9. Some 7.5's still out there
                                      Comment
                                      • hubie69
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-16-10
                                        • 7329

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by hubie69
                                        Pinny at 9. Some 7.5's still out there
                                        7.5;s appears to have dried up, looks like everything 8 or higher right now.
                                        Comment
                                        • johnnyvegas13
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 05-21-15
                                          • 27897

                                          #21
                                          Y the line move

                                          money really coming in on ragers
                                          Comment
                                          • hubie69
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-16-10
                                            • 7329

                                            #22
                                            9's in a lot of places now. If you like ULL get it now. If you like CC wait and this *might* get up to 10
                                            Comment
                                            • BeatTheJerk
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 08-19-07
                                              • 31794

                                              #23
                                              I have ULL ML -275 in an open parlay.
                                              Comment
                                              • johnnyvegas13
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 05-21-15
                                                • 27897

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by hubie69
                                                9's in a lot of places now. If you like ULL get it now. If you like CC wait and this *might* get up to 10
                                                Agree

                                                i prob won’t take anything pre gm now

                                                gonna watch some first
                                                Comment
                                                • stackz125
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 01-03-16
                                                  • 6191

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by hubie69
                                                  9's in a lot of places now. If you like ULL get it now. If you like CC wait and this *might* get up to 10
                                                  If it hits 10/10.5
                                                  I have -7
                                                  Ill stab at +10+
                                                  Nice 3pt middle
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Otters27
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 07-14-07
                                                    • 30760

                                                    #26
                                                    Like Coastal.

                                                    Why the Line Movement?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hubie69
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-16-10
                                                      • 7329

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Otters27
                                                      Why the Line Movement?
                                                      Otter Cmon homie, you know why the line is moving.

                                                      That being said I haven't seen it move to 10 anywhere, appears to be topping out at 9/9.5, depending on the book
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jjgold
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 07-20-05
                                                        • 388179

                                                        #28
                                                        Hubie call me
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jtoler
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-17-13
                                                          • 30967

                                                          #29
                                                          coastal looks darn good this year they have a really good niche offense and should have no problem moving the ball and scoring pts
                                                          Comment
                                                          • hubie69
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-16-10
                                                            • 7329

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by jjgold
                                                            Hubie call me
                                                            Dial into the conference call, SammyOdom and I already discussing, SammyNCharge should be on shortly too
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dark star
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-04-09
                                                              • 3900

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Otters27
                                                              Like Coastal.

                                                              Why the Line Movement?


                                                              Was thinking the same thing,,,,Been on these guys first couple games
                                                              Comment
                                                              • unde0087
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 03-27-08
                                                                • 28958

                                                                #32
                                                                Good luck tonight hubie, I fell in love with the over in this game so over 58 for me.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Darkside Magick
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 05-28-10
                                                                  • 12638

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Coastal Carolina +270 vs UL Lafayette
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • hubie69
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 09-16-10
                                                                    • 7329

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Darkside Magick
                                                                    Coastal Carolina +270 vs UL Lafayette
                                                                    Originally posted by unde0087
                                                                    Good luck tonight hubie, I fell in love with the over in this game so over 58 for me.
                                                                    GL boys.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bosstown27
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 09-19-12
                                                                      • 1

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Why is line going North CC good team
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      Search
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...