who has EYE on MARSHALL ncaaf play

dark star · 10-07-20, 02:50 PM

They were impressive defensively against App St thats for sure

KVB · 10-07-20, 03:15 PM

My stacking percentages forecast has this game 31-24, Marshall. That forecast is 50-46-4 over its last 100 plays against the close and 57-43 over the last 100 plays against the opening line.

Interestingly, over the last 15 years and more than 11000 NCAAF games that's not only the most common Total score (55), but it's the 2nd most frequent margin of victory and the 1st and 3rd most frequent team scores.

The non predictive public gauge shows Marshall winning 24-20 and that Total is much more in line with the market.

While the line opened at around 48.5, there was a big drop to 44.5. There is rain in the forecast and a roughly 10 mph wind.

Indications from the market show early bets on Marshall and that's consistent with the line move from the -4 and -5 opener near the -4 public gauge to the stacking forecast of -7 points.

I'm waiting for more market information before making a call here but it appears with the very early action that the books have already adjusted and may not be taking a position given the low opener to work with. I would not be surprised to see any -6.5s out there turn to 7 and possibly 7.5 if the market succumbs to steam.

We need to get into Friday and see the weekend action for the game to get more from the market.

carolinakid · 10-07-20, 03:52 PM

i think the weekend weather will play a big part to this weekend of football, before any bet for sat, be sure to keep a good watch on the weather at the games.

veriableodds · 10-07-20, 08:47 PM

MARSHALL should roll them but the software I use says marshall only wins by -1 despite the 17 rank gap. That why they not on my plays cause -6.5 isnt value atleast in my book(data guy here no emotion) even though think marshall rolls easy.

stackz125 · 10-08-20, 05:44 PM

I bet them already -7
Sharp action on Matshall as well.

Otters27 · 10-08-20, 08:24 PM

Thanks I'll take the ML

veriableodds · 10-10-20, 05:11 PM

Game smells but it really shouldnt

jjgold · 10-10-20, 05:13 PM

Classic

I know that line

kingdom · 10-10-20, 05:45 PM

Marshall has terrible cover pctg over last 3 seasons as a fav and W. Ky as a home dog does pretty well. gonna be a tight game based on the numbers. but who really knows lol

Fred The Hammer · 10-10-20, 05:51 PM

Joey Galloway on ESPN is 27-6 ATS (2 picks per week) in the last 2 years in cfb. He already hit Florida Over today (so did I $$) and his other play is Marshall -7. I just took ML in a parlay because it feels like road favs aren't covering shit this year.

kingdom · 10-10-20, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Joey Galloway on ESPN is 27-6 ATS (2 picks per week) in the last 2 years in cfb. He already hit Florida Over today (so did I $$) and his other play is Marshall -7. I just took ML in a parlay because it feels like road favs aren't covering shit this year.

wonder if he bets? most of the tv guys and former players know very little about gambling.

Fred The Hammer · 10-10-20, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by kingdom

wonder if he bets? most of the tv guys and former players know very little about gambling.

He knows football. I don't know how old you are, but he played in the NFL a long time even though he was always hurt

kingdom · 10-10-20, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

He knows football. I don't know how old you are, but he played in the NFL a long time even though he was always hurt

one of fastest guys off the break i ever saw. watched him live at jax when he was with the seahawks. lotta those guys know football, but choose not to gamble. on one of those talented ohio st. teams with eddie george and hoyer that got the coach fired for never beating michigan lol.

Fred The Hammer · 10-10-20, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

I think they cover the -6.5 easy. Impressive with defense also
w.kentucky has already let me down this year
no brainer play???

Nice one brother. Joey Galloway on ESPN had Marshall -7 so I had to atleast put ML in some parlays. That dude 28-6 ATS since last year. Thats incredible. Most his picks hit by 2-3 TDs or more. Florida was 21 pts Over the total and Marshall is up 38-0

KVB · 10-10-20, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

I think they cover the -6.5 easy. Impressive with defense also
w.kentucky has already let me down this year
no brainer play???

Good look here, We Are Marshall on the beatdown tonight.

veriableodds · 10-10-20, 10:05 PM

shit all over W KENTUCKY

pavyracer · 10-10-20, 10:09 PM

This is W.Kentucky after Marshall shit all over them. They are singing la,la,la,la,la,la.

veriableodds · 10-10-20, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Fred The Hammer

Joey Galloway on ESPN is 27-6 ATS (2 picks per week) in the last 2 years in cfb. He already hit Florida Over today (so did I $$) and his other play is Marshall -7. I just took ML in a parlay because it feels like road favs aren't covering shit this year.

Interesting that hammer didnt take into account this years marshall, if he took a second look he would of backed off , it reminds me of my plays this week if i would of dove a little deeper id prolly pass ncaaf this week all together to many sleepers out this week like tualne, ga tech, coastal carolina, utep, arkansas, ect SHAME ON ME for contrarian my own rules even if small bets
My stupid ass too miami +15 and sweating balls