Tuesday Plays?? Juicy MLB Card

[jjgold]

[KVB]

White Sox lighting up on the board for the Contrarian Fund but it hasn't quite triggered. This is the originally scheduled Rodon/Plutko matchup which is the second game of today's double header.

My raw forecast, which has had a surprisingly decent early season start, has the game tied at roughly 3.5 points each.

Contrarian adjustments are making the White Sox look attractive. It's likely a matter of time and volume before it triggers, but sometimes plays like this develop all day and just don't make the cut.

On another note, a Houston/St Louis runline two pick might not be a bad idea, but watch out for the Twins, they could be the spoiler in that parlay as they might be primed to go on one helluva run here.

[2daBank]

I love cards +136 today! Our whole lineup has smacked Bailey around for years and it no accident as he doesn’t have any nasty breaking stuff in his arsenal. He mostly a fastball/sinker/split finger pitcher, that not how you get cards out.

This the 1st time ever Carlos has taken the off season seriously, by all accounts he worked his butt off as he had no interest being a reliever again! Other than flaherty there no other cards starter I would want to see against this sick twins lineup! Carlos has the stuff to be able to control these bats imo, he hasn’t started a game in 2 years but you could tell this spring he was in starter shape, appears he kept it going during the time off as he won the job with lots of competition. He pitched 4 innings against kc last wed then threw a pen session over weekend so I trust he can go 5-6 innings here. My only concern is he to ramped up and struggles with command, can’t walk guys against this lineup as a few jacks almost inevitable, long as they solo shots no biggie!

I think Martinez stuff will be electric tonight but more importantly I trust cards will hit bailey and the twins pen.

Look for twins to get revenge on wed. Not sure Mikolas ever has the stuff to deal with this lineup and to make matters worse I don’t think he close to 100% He had what they calling a forearm issue all offseason so rested, then within a few days of spring they shut him down again for more rest, which I dunno how a few more weeks was gonna help if resting all off season did not? He has gotten even more rest than anticipated but he still doesn’t look right to me. Mikolas at his best could struggle vs this murderers row lineup, a less than Mikolas gonna get tagged im afraid. On the other hand if Hill is his normal self he will be a nightmare for cards who do not hit curve balls or change ups very well (mild understanding as they were worst in league against off speed last year and I havnt seen much that has changed that!)!

[capitalist pig]

Houston @ plus $ is my play for today

later

[TheMetsSuck]

Houston ml
Rays ml
Twins over
Red Sox over
Cubs over
Tigers over

[KVB]

I liked the St. Louis RL initally, but that line has moved pretty far from center making the ML a little sweeter.




I just mentioned this in a text to a friend...It might not be the winner tonight, but it feels like the long term play at that price.

[KVB]

Houston ml
Rays ml
Twins over
Red Sox over
Cubs over
Tigers over

Houston easily the second best play on the contrarian radar, but still no trigger.

Detroit a good team.
Like the twins over idea, like I said, in another thread, St Louis should keep up so if they fail, I see it playing out more about Minny succeeding, or going above and beyond, as opposed to St Louis failing or shitting the bed.

Good looking OVER bet there.

[2daBank]

I liked the St. Louis RL initally, but that line has moved pretty far from center making the ML a little sweeter.




I just mentioned this in a text to a friend...It might not be the winner tonight, but it feels like the long term play at that price.

Who knows day to day but imo it absolutely the right play, I gotta believe we hit bailey pretty hard way more than 50% the time. What we gonna get from Carlos the x-factor but he absolutely has the stuff to hold down any lineup. As mentioned it might be a coin flip proposition he isn’t to jacked up and struggles w command but it just as likely he dominant imo. Even with cards not having the 3 late arrivals back in the pen I’d still take what we currently have over the twins pen.

I think this line a huge reactionary number based off twins mashing everyone’s darling white sox over the weekend. I seem to recall a game in middle that series where Kuechal held twins bats down. Even not starting for 2 years this still a huge starting pitching advantage for cards, they have the edge in the pen imo (although very scared our closer), I’ll take cards defense all day, sure twins lineup insanely good but considering the damage cards have done to bailey it might not be that much drastically better in this one game!!!

2marro be a completely different story, id kill to get twins at this price in 2marros pitching matchup!

[2daBank]

Houston starter the guy on the coffee jar?

[2daBank]

I was very interested in jays also but someone told me Roark was only gonna throw around 50 pitches?? If he on that limited a pitch count I’m not so sure as their pen had to throw a lot already this season.

[KVB]

It's getting tougher than ever to estimate how much they'll use starters. The game is evolving into a mixed up pitcher order each game and even more so this season.

I'm trying to get a feel early in the season for what they do. 60 games are going to go by very fast.

[2daBank]

It's getting tougher than ever to estimate how much they'll use starters. The game is evolving into a mixed up pitcher order each game and even more so this season.

I'm trying to get a feel early in the season for what they do. 60 games are going to go by very fast.

Yea it a real pain in the ass. Other than Saturday where there just turned out to be ton of plays I liked ive bet less games on avg per day than I normally do!

[KVB]

...Like the twins over idea, like I said, in another thread, St Louis should keep up so if they fail, I see it playing out more about Minny succeeding, or going above and beyond, as opposed to St Louis failing or shitting the bed.

Good looking OVER bet there.

Some of these Totals, including STL/MIN, are seemingly high, at least a bit.

For some of these anticipated closer games, we might be seeing the runner on 2nd base in extra innings already being felt out in the market.

I think extra innings bring the over in Minnesota, but I also think while these teams could play even, either team could rap off 7 runs for a big lead.

I'm passing on that OVER, but I do think it's the OVER or nothing.

[lakerboy]

Sea is my top play

[KVB]

Yea it a real pain in the ass. Other than Saturday where there just turned out to be ton of plays I liked ive bet less games on avg per day than I normally do!

Let's see if, as the season progresses, they chill out a bit on the funky pithing stuff.

Some teams will chill, but others might just get that much more complicated. Different teams are all over the place with it.

Some teams, like the shitty Giants, might be benefitting from the mold of tradition pitching order getting broken.

If I remember, it all started in Tampa.

[2daBank]

Let's see if, as the season progresses, they chill out a bit on the funky pithing stuff.

Some teams will chill, but others might just get that much more complicated. Different teams are all over the place with it.

Some teams, like the shitty Giants, might be benefitting from the mold of tradition pitching order getting broken.

If I remember, it all started in Tampa.

Rays def the godfathers of this stuff. I thought it was cute and imaginative out of necessity but now that everyone copying them it sucks!

[KVB]

lol, it does suck from a betting standpoint.

[KVB]

The Contrarian Fund triggered the early game with the White Sox, not the game I mentioned above, which is still on the radar...

Note the rotation number, this is the first game of the double header...

I actually put it all together and ended up with a CHW trigger on the first game today...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

981

28-Jul

CHW +123

This not one of the "backbone plays" but it is consistent with the Contrarian Fund plays over the years.

Game two is still on the radar, make no mistake. Hopefully I didn't make a mistake...lol...

Nothing like a double header...

[BIGDAY]

Twins Undah the posted total.

[pologq]

i like the rays ML and -1.5 against the braves

[KVB]

Added Cinci, Detroit and Houston to the Contrarian Fund...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

958	28-Jul	CIN -110
964		DET -105
974		HOU +126

Houston represents a backbone play, for what it might be worth. Backbone plays are 0-5 so far this year...

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[KVB]

Keeping a sharp eye on that Houston play.

Dodgers are dangerous but a loss with the Houston gives us a pretty sharp decline in the Contrarian Fund and thus the contrarian market gauge.

That is sure to be met with an uptick and if done right, we'll be able to narrow the space of the uptick to a range that we can then bet into.

Then we fire away!

[2daBank]

I knew Mikolas still wasn’t right, he had this forearm issue since end of last year, now he scratched and again “needs rest”, Dunno why they keep prolonging the inevitable? You know when “forearm trouble” goes this long the Mfer elbow shot and he needs TJ! They should have got it out the way after last season, by time they figure it out next year be shot for him! Lol.

The bad news is it takes away a golden chance to fade him 2marro as I been planning since I heard he was gonna start vs twins! The good news is I think that means KK will now start and we don’t have to worry bout him trying to close again!! Giovanni been activated so now either him or Heisley should close, both more suited to do so than KK who might turn out to be better starter than Mikolas!

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Twins Undah the posted total.

I’m on Minny -150

[Art Vandelay]

Let's see if, as the season progresses, they chill out a bit on the funky pithing stuff.

Some teams will chill, but others might just get that much more complicated. Different teams are all over the place with it.

Some teams, like the shitty Giants, might be benefitting from the mold of tradition pitching order getting broken.

If I remember, it all started in Tampa.

And Milwaukee as well. Brewers used unorthodox pitching strategies to dominate the last 2 Septembers and make the postseason.

[2daBank]

Butt pirates all way up to +170. Tough not to take a stab at that price.

[KVB]

Butt pirates all way up to +170. Tough not to take a stab at that price.

I've had the Pirates in one form or another every damn day since it started.

Last night, entering the 9th with a 5-1 lead, loading bases, driving in a run with a beaned batter, I mean shit.

Demoralizing to say the least.

Might have to go back to the well again.

[2daBank]

I've had the Pirates in one form or another every damn day since it started.

Last night, entering the 9th with a 5-1 lead, loading bases, driving in a run with a beaned batter, I mean shit.

Demoralizing to say the least.

Might have to go back to the well again.

Jfc. That blows. I didn’t bet much last night so I didn’t see how they lost. Unreal.

[KVB]

Jfc. That blows. I didn’t bet much last night so I didn’t see how they lost. Unreal.

That was just the defense. Some of the Pirates strikeouts were so ugly.

I'm not sure they could have it it if it was on a tee.

I think it was Mike I texted, saying it was as ugly as watching WNBA players miss layups...lol.

[Chi_archie]

Bucs/brewers under

[Twisted_One]

Bucs/brewers under

I love the Over so this is probably golden!!!

[hotcross]

Texas Rangers -105

Over 10 +115 Colorado @ Oakland

[KVB]

Hey Cinci Reds, did you hear me? Did you hear what I said???

[BIGDAY]

I’m on Minny -150

We should parlayed the two!

[KVB]

Tuesday's results led to a more than -2 unit loss. There have been 16 total triggers, one was postponed. Because of the compressed season there's a very good chance we see some big streaks both ways and possibly less sign of the market turning...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 16 plays, with links to the plays.

958	28-Jul	CIN -110	-1
964		DET -105	0.95
974		HOU +126	-1
981		CHW +123	-1
		Tue	-2.05
		Week 1	-2.54
		Mon	-1
		Total	-5.59

That backbone contrarian set of plays is now 0-6. The good news is...

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/PitifulElectricIcterinewarbler' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='412'></iframe><p> <a href="https://gfycat.com/pitifulelectricicterinewarbler">via Gfycat</a></p>