Best bets for UFC 250: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer 🤜🤛
Best bets for UFC 250: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC remains in Las Vegas this week at its new Apex training center and will put on its second pay-per-view card of the crowd-less sports era. Headlining is dual-weight class champ Amanda Nunes, widely considered the women's GOAT, now in a role of routine heavy favorite. But there's also a lineup of ranked fighters in much tighter matchups.
In fact, five of the top 15 ranked bantamweights are set to face off in what could shuffle the pecking order in that newly wide-open division. There's also a pair of undefeated fighters in Sean O'Malley and Chase Hooper, who are looking to build some momentum in front of increasingly large audiences.
We'll examine the chalk on Nunes and explore more value elsewhere on the card.
Early prelims are at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+. Prelims commence at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. on PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Women's featherweight title fight: Champion Amanda Nunes (-650) vs. Felicia Spencer (+475)
Nunes' case for GOAT status gets stronger with each outing, as she now is controlling and dominating two divisions. It's hard to tell if the greatest risk to her supremacy will be a highly focused finishing threat (e.g., someone like Cris Cyborg), or just a tough and well-rounded cardio machine who can edge her out on the cards in a close fight (e.g., someone like Valentina Shevchenko).
Tale Of The Tape
The odds here suggest Spencer is less of a threat than prior challengers, and in fact betting action has been steadily in favor of Nunes since opening. With limited data on Spencer, one need only notice her lone decision loss to Cyborg to put things into perspective. Spencer survived, but she was unable to win rounds. On the other end, Nunes handily knocked out Cyborg. The transitive property doesn't always hold in MMA due to stylistic differences, but Spencer's limited threat as a striker and prior success as a grappler will be an uphill battle against Nunes.
Specifically, Nunes is likely to be more active on her feet, more precise and harder-hitting than Spencer, who in turn has shown poor head strike defense and low output. That means Spencer may be in a hurry to use her jiu-jitsu, and historically she belies this intent by attempting takedowns at an unusually high pace. But her takedown success rate is very low, while Nunes has solid takedown defense and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt of her own.
It's possible Spencer will have a mild strength advantage having spent more of her career in the higher weight class. But if she chooses to stand and trade with the champ, damage will definitely accumulate on the challenger. Her best hope is clinching, hoping Nunes' cardio isn't where it could be given the volatility of training during the pandemic, and maybe using back control to win rounds or get a long-shot submission.
If we see Nunes arrive on form, I expect her to dictate the location of the fight, and the striking differential will eventually add up in her favor. She could get a TKO finish that eluded Cyborg.
E+ recommends: Lean on Nunes, but pass at current prices. Nunes as a parlay anchor if her price comes down, plus a lean on a Nunes TKO finish prop.
Other fight card values
More parlay fodder will come in the form of undefeated prospect Sean O'Malley (-500). His slick standup striking is currently challenging Alistair Overeem for the most accurate in the UFC, although O'Malley can maintain it at a bantamweight's pace. His opponent, Eddie Wineland (+400), is certainly a solid veteran, but he has only won a single decision in the last decade. If Wineland can't land a knockout against a fighter 10 years his junior, O'Malley should have multiple paths to victory.
E+ recommends: O'Malley for parlays.
For an affordable moneyline play, consider Aljamain Sterling (-115), who could be competing to earn a shot at the whoever becomes the next bantamweight champ. His opponent, Cory Sandhagen (-105), is deservedly highly ranked, making the price on this matchup nearly even. Sterling combines rangy striking with dynamic grappling and should have the advantage on the mat.
E+ recommends: ML play on Sterling.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC remains in Las Vegas this week at its new Apex training center and will put on its second pay-per-view card of the crowd-less sports era. Headlining is dual-weight class champ Amanda Nunes, widely considered the women's GOAT, now in a role of routine heavy favorite. But there's also a lineup of ranked fighters in much tighter matchups.
In fact, five of the top 15 ranked bantamweights are set to face off in what could shuffle the pecking order in that newly wide-open division. There's also a pair of undefeated fighters in Sean O'Malley and Chase Hooper, who are looking to build some momentum in front of increasingly large audiences.
We'll examine the chalk on Nunes and explore more value elsewhere on the card.
Early prelims are at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+. Prelims commence at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. on PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Women's featherweight title fight: Champion Amanda Nunes (-650) vs. Felicia Spencer (+475)
Nunes' case for GOAT status gets stronger with each outing, as she now is controlling and dominating two divisions. It's hard to tell if the greatest risk to her supremacy will be a highly focused finishing threat (e.g., someone like Cris Cyborg), or just a tough and well-rounded cardio machine who can edge her out on the cards in a close fight (e.g., someone like Valentina Shevchenko).
Tale Of The Tape
| Last fight weight class | Bantamweight | Featherweight |
| Age | 32 | 29 |
| Height | 68 | 66 |
| Reach | 69 | 68 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 129 | 22 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 5:0 | 0:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 34% | 35% |
| Head power accuracy | 41% | 33% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 74% | 59% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 100% | 100% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| Takedown accuracy | 48% | 17% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 25 | 0 |
| Takedown defense | 80% | NA |
| Share of total ground time in control | 78% | 74% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.24 | 0.50 |
The odds here suggest Spencer is less of a threat than prior challengers, and in fact betting action has been steadily in favor of Nunes since opening. With limited data on Spencer, one need only notice her lone decision loss to Cyborg to put things into perspective. Spencer survived, but she was unable to win rounds. On the other end, Nunes handily knocked out Cyborg. The transitive property doesn't always hold in MMA due to stylistic differences, but Spencer's limited threat as a striker and prior success as a grappler will be an uphill battle against Nunes.
Specifically, Nunes is likely to be more active on her feet, more precise and harder-hitting than Spencer, who in turn has shown poor head strike defense and low output. That means Spencer may be in a hurry to use her jiu-jitsu, and historically she belies this intent by attempting takedowns at an unusually high pace. But her takedown success rate is very low, while Nunes has solid takedown defense and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt of her own.
It's possible Spencer will have a mild strength advantage having spent more of her career in the higher weight class. But if she chooses to stand and trade with the champ, damage will definitely accumulate on the challenger. Her best hope is clinching, hoping Nunes' cardio isn't where it could be given the volatility of training during the pandemic, and maybe using back control to win rounds or get a long-shot submission.
If we see Nunes arrive on form, I expect her to dictate the location of the fight, and the striking differential will eventually add up in her favor. She could get a TKO finish that eluded Cyborg.
E+ recommends: Lean on Nunes, but pass at current prices. Nunes as a parlay anchor if her price comes down, plus a lean on a Nunes TKO finish prop.
Other fight card values
More parlay fodder will come in the form of undefeated prospect Sean O'Malley (-500). His slick standup striking is currently challenging Alistair Overeem for the most accurate in the UFC, although O'Malley can maintain it at a bantamweight's pace. His opponent, Eddie Wineland (+400), is certainly a solid veteran, but he has only won a single decision in the last decade. If Wineland can't land a knockout against a fighter 10 years his junior, O'Malley should have multiple paths to victory.
E+ recommends: O'Malley for parlays.
For an affordable moneyline play, consider Aljamain Sterling (-115), who could be competing to earn a shot at the whoever becomes the next bantamweight champ. His opponent, Cory Sandhagen (-105), is deservedly highly ranked, making the price on this matchup nearly even. Sterling combines rangy striking with dynamic grappling and should have the advantage on the mat.
E+ recommends: ML play on Sterling.
