Stockmarket question to the many brain trust on sbr

[harthebar]

Question I'm far from a stock market guy
No just about nothing
Luckily I have a pension plan so I don't invest in the 401k
And a these other retire ment funds
Just about all my friends are in the casino industry
Or private sector
I'm a public servant
So I'm just curious if a person had 200000 g
Or a 100000g invested in there retirement funds. And I k ow it varies. But just by making a guess how bad is this hurting them . If a person was going to retire this month would they have to reconsider
How much would a 200000g be worth now that based on. Them having it the 2g on Jan 1
Trying to get a idea about all this. Do you all expect it to keep going down
Thanks guys

[Snowball]

don't even think about buying anything for 3-6 months

numbers will be HORRIFIC when they are released

might get a rally in September-October

long way from now.

[jjgold]

200 Gs after Corona approx 170K

[MinnesotaFats]

Question I'm far from a stock market guy
No just about nothing
Luckily I have a pension plan so I don't invest in the 401k
And a these other retire ment funds
Just about all my friends are in the casino industry
Or private sector
I'm a public servant
So I'm just curious if a person had 200000 g
Or a 100000g invested in there retirement funds. And I k ow it varies. But just by making a guess how bad is this hurting them . If a person was going to retire this month would they have to reconsider
How much would a 200000g be worth now that based on. Them having it the 2g on Jan 1
Trying to get a idea about all this. Do you all expect it to keep going down
Thanks guys

Usually the advisor will balance a portfolio based on a persons age. Younger (under 40) = more equities thus higher risk, they have lost probably 40%. Older likely heavy bonds, blue chip w solid dividends, they have likely lost less than 15%

Be careful in thinking your pension is secure. My family beer distributor was part of Central States. Those retirees wound up w less than 70 cents on the dollar what they were promised.

The County, State and Feds cannot support or sustain the current public pensions. They are all under water and cannot be paid in full unless the stock market is high w high interest as well.

In the end, it may be the young to middle aged pensioners that get hurt the most here, those funds are always equity heavy and they've lost A LOT.....

[d2bets]

Usually the advisor will balance a portfolio based on a persons age. Younger (under 40) = more equities thus higher risk, they have lost probably 40%. Older likely heavy bonds, blue chip w solid dividends, they have likely lost less than 15%

Be careful in thinking your pension is secure. My family beer distributor was part of Central States. Those retirees wound up w less than 70 cents on the dollar what they were promised.

The County, State and Feds cannot support or sustain the current public pensions. They are all under water and cannot be paid in full unless the stock market is high w high interest as well.

In the end, it may be the young to middle aged pensioners that get hurt the most here, those funds are always equity heavy and they've lost A LOT.....

Shouldn't be. Currently the S&P 500 is down about 32% from the high. And most have some diversification even if high-risk. Anyone who's lost 40% peak to trough was super high-risk.

Pensions are bad. Figure there will have to be changes to social security sooner than later. At least probably raise the cap.

[d2bets]

don't even think about buying anything for 3-6 months

numbers will be HORRIFIC when they are released

might get a rally in September-October

long way from now.

So would you recommend 100% elimination of equities right now?

[Purduekev]

This upcoming Friday's US Job report will put a harsh reality to how horrible Kung Flu has and will have on our Economy. I personally don't think down 30-35% is the bottom and I would be very careful trying to catch a falling knife.

[d2bets]

This upcoming Friday's US Job report will put a harsh reality to how horrible Kung Flu has and will have on our Economy. I personally don't think down 30-35% is the bottom and I would be very careful trying to catch a falling knife.

Could be. Then again I haven't heard a single person say they think this is bottom, so a contrarian might say....

[Purduekev]

Could be. Then again I haven't heard a single person say they think this is bottom, so a contrarian might say....

I am a contrarian and would generally agree when everyone heads one direction...go the other way. In this case I'll set on the sidelines.

[harthebar]

Usually the advisor will balance a portfolio based on a persons age. Younger (under 40) = more equities thus higher risk, they have lost probably 40%. Older likely heavy bonds, blue chip w solid dividends, they have likely lost less than 15%

Be careful in thinking your pension is secure. My family beer distributor was part of Central States. Those retirees wound up w less than 70 cents on the dollar what they were promised.

The County, State and Feds cannot support or sustain the current public pensions. They are all under water and cannot be paid in full unless the stock market is high w high interest as well.

In the end, it may be the young to middle aged pensioners that get hurt the most here, those funds are always equity heavy and they've lost A LOT.....

I'm already eligible they started taking it out when I was 14 pension needed 25 years thanks for response

[harthebar]

I'm glad I asked got a lot of knowledge here. Thanks

[Fishhead]

This upcoming Friday's US Job report will put a harsh reality to how horrible Kung Flu has and will have on our Economy. I personally don't think down 30-35% is the bottom and I would be very careful trying to catch a falling knife.

…...and this knife has a SHARP and BIG blade

[pologq]

feel like we are going to go down further. i am not too risky with my 401k as i have it in a set group of funds to retire in 30 years and am actually doing not too bad.

my ira that i play with is taking a beating except for ETF's based on bons right now.

[Roger T. Bannon]

The stock market is down about 30% right now but the good news is the stock market was MASSIVELY overvalued so it is still pretty high. The stock market was way up because of Trump and it turns out Trump was not all that good for the stock market in times of true risk.

So now the question is how far does it fall. In most times that would be 80%. But this is not most times, the stock market is basically rigged upwards and constantly ginned up so now it is going to get a huge bailout just like it got in 2008 when all financial assets went to zero but the stock market declined 37% for the year although it went down further during the year.

It probably does not go down more than 50% and the huge bailout will juice it higher. Average people will do pretty poorly but the stock market will still do pretty well.

To answer your question, anyone planning on retiring is most likely planning to work a few more years but they were counting quite a bit on golden eggs that were not going to hatch.

[Roger T. Bannon]

Part 2 of it will be when they say Remember how we spent all that money on the Iraq War? Remember when we bailout the stock market in 2008 and remember when we all of the sudden came up with all that money to bail out the stock market in 2020? Well guess, what? There is no money anymore. We spent it all.

Then they will say we need to cut your social security so we can afford all that.

[HotStreak]

Seems like an innocent question asked at a time that rubs your private pension in the face of the majority who are looking at big paper losses for traditional 401ks.

You could have asked how the market worked without including the info of your pension

[Slurry Pumper]

Keep in mind that you can also short the market. I've been shorting Boeing now for the last year, and it has lost over half of its value. Oil stocks are under severe pressure so that move is playing out nicely. Future short plays will include just about anything over the next couple of weeks. Just remember things will be violent with the moves up or down so watch the price very closely

[Roger T. Bannon]

Seems like an innocent question asked at a time that rubs your private pension in the face of the majority who are looking at big paper losses for traditional 401ks.

You could have asked how the market worked without including the info of your pension

Well the same could be said of you. You have a 401(k) that been bailed out not just once but twice and other people don't get any bailouts at all.

[JIBBBY]

Start buying and stop selling now.. Corona end is near..

Dow Stock market is in the toilet now at under 20 gees.. You don't sell in a down market you buy in times like this.. That's how you get richer.. Time is your friend even if the stock market drops to 15 gees after you buy in a month from now..

Check back in a year or two and you hit the lotto when order is restored... Don't have to be a rocket scientist or a brain surgeon to understand this.

You just need a little Patience and understanding!!!

[Roger T. Bannon]

Start buying and stop selling now.. Corona end is near..

Dow Stock market is in the toilet now at under 20 gees.. You don't sell in a down market you buy in times like this.. That's how you get richer.. Time is your friend even if the stock market drops to 15 gees after you buy in a month from now..

Check back in a year or two and you hit the lotto when order is restored... Don't have to be a rocket scientist or a brain surgeon to understand this.

You just need a little Patience and understanding!!!

Doubtful the market drops below S&P 2000 and probably does not hit that. The market is going to ignore all the unemployment and focus on the bailout money. However, the stock market is fully valued right now so no lotto tickets. 4% max return per year on the stock market long term.

[Roger T. Bannon]

The real side effect of this crisis is going to be the last cards being played by the elites across the world. They are barely holding on now and this event is going to leave a very large number of people behind. While the stock market will be saved, the economic impact is going to be significantly negative for a long time and the change of the social order is one step closer.

[homie1975]

I'm 44 with a pretty aggressive 401K as I intentionally selected funds with 2040 and 2045 retirement year (I'd be 65 and 70 respectively) with intentions of a more aggressive appriach.

Thru yday I'm down 28%

Basically gave back everything from last year (+27%)

2018 I was minus 3%

[harthebar]

Keep in mind that you can also short the market. I've been shorting Boeing now for the last year, and it has lost over half of its value. Oil stocks are under severe pressure so that move is playing out nicely. Future short plays will include just about anything over the next couple of weeks. Just remember things will be violent with the moves up or down so watch the price very closely

Short. Like the movie the big short. But the housing market. So your betting boeing goes low

[d2bets]

Short. Like the movie the big short. But the housing market. So your betting boeing goes low

Housing market? Maybe housing will rise. Now we realize we may need to spend a lot of time at home, separate from each other, isolation room, pandemic storage, home office to work from home, homeschooling. Maybe a big house ain't so stupid after all. People spend too much on cars and too little on their house.

[harthebar]

Wow this is a lot of Info. Thanks for the write ups

[harthebar]

Do you all rhi k the dow will get close to 15000

[Fishhead]

The stock market is down about 30% right now but the good news is the stock market was MASSIVELY overvalued so it is still pretty high. The stock market was way up because of Trump and it turns out Trump was not all that good for the stock market in times of true risk.

So now the question is how far does it fall. In most times that would be 80%. But this is not most times, the stock market is basically rigged upwards and constantly ginned up so now it is going to get a huge bailout just like it got in 2008 when all financial assets went to zero but the stock market declined 37% for the year although it went down further during the year.

It probably does not go down more than 50% and the huge bailout will juice it higher. Average people will do pretty poorly but the stock market will still do pretty well.

To answer your question, anyone planning on retiring is most likely planning to work a few more years but they were counting quite a bit on golden eggs that were not going to hatch.

The DOW is down over 35% from it's PEAK

[Fishhead]

Do you all rhi k the dow will get close to 15000

A stimulus is not going to stop the MASSIVE DESTRUCTION that is going to take place in 7 days...…….Americans will begin to drop like FLIES

[harthebar]

7 days. Details. I know diddly about the stock world

[harthebar]

Massive destruction. ????????that's pretty deep

[Fishhead]

USA deaths will be in the hundreds daily

[Roger T. Bannon]

A stimulus is not going to stop the MASSIVE DESTRUCTION that is going to take place in 7 days...…….Americans will begin to drop like FLIES

30-35% doesn't matter. The S&P 500 is a better reflection of the market than the Dow.

You can't predict any of this. The is huge experimentation. The rich are trying to shield themselves from losses as much as possible. But how fast do people get re-employed? How much money do they have to spend afterwards? How much are people going to let the rich continue to bail themselves out? These are unanswered questions.

This bailout is looking pretty ugly. People are going to be enraged.

[hostile takeover]

So everyone thinks it's going to tank...

Guess the best thing to do is short the market. All in. Full margin.

Good luck.

[Roger T. Bannon]

So everyone thinks it's going to tank...

Guess the best thing to do is short the market. All in. Full margin.

Good luck.

It is probably not going to tank. The stock market is protected.

[Purduekev]

So everyone thinks it's going to tank...

Guess the best thing to do is short the market. All in. Full margin.

Good luck.

Sidelines for me. Volatility is a bitch in either direction. Too much unknown. Duration and death toll? Does it go away and come back in cooler weather this Fall?

I don't want on this roller coaster ride.