Baylor vs Iowa State

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  • WizardsFan88
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-23-20
    • 18

    #1
    Baylor vs Iowa State
    What am I missing here ? See injuries and taking that into account I can’t understand why this line is only -4.

    Trap game comes to mind but if someone could shed some statistics or facts as to why Baylor isn’t -9 in this game that would be appreciated
  • oChRoNiCo
    SBR MVP
    • 07-18-09
    • 2984

    #2
    Originally posted by WizardsFan88
    What am I missing here ? See injuries and taking that into account I can’t understand why this line is only -4.

    Trap game comes to mind but if someone could shed some statistics or facts as to why Baylor isn’t -9 in this game that would be appreciated

    Considering Baylor was only a 9 point favorite @ home 2 weeks ago I don't see why they would be a 9 point favorite on the road in arguably the toughest road venue in the Big 12 conference. Baylor is 3-12 last 15 games @ Iowa State as well so I feel the -4 is adequate in this situation if anything I would be more worried about the reverse line movement as a reason to not play Baylor, and or to play Iowa State. line opened -5.5 and with 79% spread $ and 63% ML $ on Baylor line has moved down to -4 now. Hilton Magic wouldn't be first time Iowa State has pulled off an upset at home I'm personally backing the Cyclones +4 to win 2.5% of my bankroll and another 1.25% of my bankroll bet on the ML +165.
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    • Hman
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-04-17
      • 21429

      #3
      Good to see you posting Wizfan.

      GL with your plays!
      Comment
      • Husker36
        SBR MVP
        • 12-02-08
        • 3846

        #4
        Originally posted by WizardsFan88
        What am I missing here ? See injuries and taking that into account I can’t understand why this line is only -4.

        Trap game comes to mind but if someone could shed some statistics or facts as to why Baylor isn’t -9 in this game that would be appreciated
        My son is going large on this game tonight and taking Baylor. My first reaction was that Iowa State is a really tough place to play. BUT they are 8-3 at home this year... so they are beatable at home this year. Kansas smacked Iowa State at home... and I expect Baylor to do the same.
        Comment
        • BeatTheJerk
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 08-19-07
          • 31794

          #5
          Originally posted by Husker36
          My son is going large on this game tonight and taking Baylor. My first reaction was that Iowa State is a really tough place to play. BUT they are 8-3 at home this year... so they are beatable at home this year. Kansas smacked Iowa State at home... and I expect Baylor to do the same.
          10k large ? more or less ...?
          Comment
          • Husker36
            SBR MVP
            • 12-02-08
            • 3846

            #6
            Originally posted by BeatTheJerk
            10k large ? more or less ...?
            Its my son... so his large vs my large is much different lol
            Comment
            • Husker36
              SBR MVP
              • 12-02-08
              • 3846

              #7
              Originally posted by Husker36
              Its my son... so his large vs my large is much different lol
              For him... large is probably half his limit with his bookie
              Comment
              • BeatTheJerk
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 08-19-07
                • 31794

                #8
                Originally posted by Husker36
                For him... large is probably half his limit with his bookie
                500 usd.
                Comment
                • BeatTheJerk
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-19-07
                  • 31794

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Husker36
                  Its my son... so his large vs my large is much different lol


                  I can't wait until my son gets old enough to bet so I can mold him into a successful investor/bettor. He's currently 13 & I make small bets with him at times & have taught him how to not press/chase after losses, 1st thing I taught him so far.
                  Comment
                  • Husker36
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-02-08
                    • 3846

                    #10
                    Originally posted by BeatTheJerk
                    I can't wait until my son gets old enough to bet so I can mold him into a successful investor/bettor. He's currently 13 & I make small bets with him at times & have taught him how to not press/chase after losses, 1st thing I taught him so far.
                    Ya I had to teach him to stay away from parlays.
                    Comment
                    • BeatTheJerk
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 08-19-07
                      • 31794

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Husker36
                      Ya I had to teach him to stay away from parlays.
                      I've had success with parlays in my years of gambling so I'm a little biased to the sucker bet rule of thumb. I don't condone it though I've just been lucky/fortunate to win over 6 figures on parlays actually.
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #12
                        Iowa State really hasn’t shown much I can’t take them
                        Comment
                        • Chi_archie
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-22-08
                          • 63172

                          #13
                          Baylor has a great strength of schedule, and surely on a nice streak

                          but they aren't the kind of team that is going to win 15-20 in a row without let downs. They are a lot less legit in this season then most traditonal #1 ranked teams at this point in the season with a 17-1 record

                          especially seeing a team a 2nd time

                          last game Baylor had 22 free throw attempts and ISU had 6. I expect that to switch around a bit.

                          Haliburton had a very off night shooting that night and whole team as well.

                          if Haliburton has a hot night behind the arc as he is apt to do, I can see the cyclones winning this straight up
                          Comment
                          • Husker36
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-02-08
                            • 3846

                            #14
                            Originally posted by BeatTheJerk
                            I've had success with parlays in my years of gambling so I'm a little biased to the sucker bet rule of thumb. I don't condone it though I've just been lucky/fortunate to win over 6 figures on parlays actually.
                            Well that's the problem. Because I also have had some success and he has seen that. But like last night... when I hit 4 of 5.... I shouldn't have a losing night. So I have taught him to only play a parlay if he's UP..... and make sure you are playing straight action as well. Then when you go 2-0 and miss your parlay you still have a winning night!
                            Comment
                            • thetrinity
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-25-11
                              • 22430

                              #15
                              probably a reverse steam bs like the florida game

                              this baylor will fall apart at some point though
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #16
                                Most of the computer models I've seen have it around 7. I personally don't trust a Scott Drew coached team and would stay away from laying the points, but Baylor may still be the right side. GL!
                                Comment
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