arie1985's Horse Racing Thread (Starting October 2019)

**arie1985** · 10-05-19, 04:05 PM

Race 8 @ Keeneland (US) for €35 profits:

**arie1985** · 10-05-19, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Withdrawn €300 after fees so far.

Withdrawn another €154 so total of €454 after fees so far.

**jjgold** · 10-05-19, 04:35 PM

Your a bridge jumper guys thats all

**littlekona** · 10-05-19, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Withdrawn another €154 so total of €454 after fees so far.

its a good strategy for almost guaranteed profit you just have to try to request best odds possible to maximize

**trytrytry** · 10-05-19, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

its a good strategy for almost guaranteed profit you just have to try to request best odds possible to maximize

what is best odds request for LAY wagering on that exchange? not sure what you mean here kona.

**littlekona** · 10-05-19, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by trytrytry

what is best odds request for LAY wagering on that exchange? not sure what you mean here kona.

I never take what is offered until last second...say I want to lay and 2.0 is offered I always come in lower say 1.96 and let it sit until last possible moment as a backer may take it.. I never take lay odds listed unless I have strong feeling they are moving lower...That is big reason orbitx is not playable for me with the delays...

like keenland right now further lane is back 2.98 and lay 3.05 I would not take the lay 3.05 but try to match it at 2.99

**jjgold** · 10-05-19, 05:41 PM

a few bad loses and its over and it does happen all the time

**arie1985** · 10-05-19, 06:10 PM

Race 1 @ Phar Lap (New Zealand) for €10:

**arie1985** · 10-05-19, 09:36 PM

Race 1 @ Port Lincoln (Australia) for €20:

**arie1985** · 10-05-19, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

a few bad loses and its over and it does happen all the time

Not a few, just one and it can kill it all.

But if you were trying the other way, to bet $10 on a 200/1 horse - after 50 losing races - who's gonna make more?

**arie1985** · 10-06-19, 12:29 AM

Race 7 @ Tatura for €16.50:

Just a note I cannot upload all bets I place due to time consuming.

**arie1985** · 10-06-19, 12:37 AM

Race 6 @ Port Lincoln for €24:

**arie1985** · 10-06-19, 01:22 AM

I've lost it faster than imagined....

Unfortunately I crossed my red lines, this horse was 100 to 1 in the betting exchange, touching the 95 to 1 as well .... I shouldn't have taken it if it's not less than 250 to 1 ... but even then I've seen 300 to 1 ones winning:

Access Denied

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-racing/australia-nz/ballina/race-8-4891223

Looks like I would have to say goodbye to this thread now, I've tried this investment but the final race in Ballina, Australia screwed me over.

**arie1985** · 10-06-19, 02:56 AM

You can watch the replay of the race here:

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https://racing.racingnsw.com.au/FreeFields/VideoResult.aspx?MeetDate=2019Oct06&VenueCode=Mzg1MDI=&RaceNumber=8&MeetingCategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

The longshot horse led the race all the way from start to finish.

**arie1985** · 10-06-19, 07:37 AM

I further researched about this - take a look here:

1000 Winner Conquest - Betfair forum | Betfair trading community

https://betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15392

A post by northbound which is a very useful post (Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:11 pm) shows you many winners like this in 2017 in the UK itself only for example:

One horse won with 880 SP price in BetFair.
Another with 500, another with 380.

And some winning horses don't even get an article in the newspapers or the media (e.g. Tilly Devine with 463 in BetFair).

All in all it seems like this strategy is not worth it. I'm giving up on it, apologies.

**littlekona** · 10-06-19, 08:06 AM

it's tough game laying but can be profitable if you lay lower priced horses esp drifters or horses that are acting up, run off or break through gate....you have to watch live and have the racing form too put a bit of study not just random....Maybe take another shot risking no more then 5-10% of you bank roll per race on lower priced lay's that's what I like

**arie1985** · 10-06-19, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

it's tough game laying but can be profitable if you lay lower priced horses esp drifters or horses that are acting up, run off or break through gate....you have to watch live and have the racing form too put a bit of study not just random....Maybe take another shot risking no more then 5-10% of you bank roll per race on lower priced lay's that's what I like

Nah, I was looking at this like an investment, so if the investment failed then turning to gambling is not worth it - I do agree if I was trying to lay horses with lower odds I might have returned already €1,000 - €2,000 and might still be betting by now, but you never know it for sure, but I do agree if you are already going to lay horses - do it against horses with lower odds so your return would be higher ... small returns for such a risk are simply not worth it.

**littlekona** · 10-06-19, 12:08 PM

blindly laying 200-1 shots that should be 500-1 is not an investment strategy....Like one poster said before laying is like playing the game press your luck and one whammy and your done

good luck Arie

**hsh80** · 10-06-19, 01:41 PM

Laying horses is really a tough game...have seen so many tipsters and laying systems going down the last few years.

I personally think that the Little Acorns System (laying mostly odds on shots and never over evens) is the only laying system which can make long term profits.

**littlekona** · 10-06-19, 02:05 PM

like parx race 5 SECOND EDITION got losse ran off but still was no declared non started went off 8-1 odds easy easy lay I actually layed him for the show spot even @ 2.5 odds off board finish