Originally posted by kingdom
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every game you can make a case for either team if you do enough searchesComment -
sdsu is usually a solid dog team. but as a home fav they are 3-12 ats their last 15.
the under is a better play as wyo is 1-9-3 o/u on road since '17 and sdsu is 2-11 ats and 3-8-2 o/u in same time frame.
byu is 9-2 ats last 11 on road. usf is 2-10 ats last 12 at home. two teams in different directions.Comment -
thanks. but i think statistically its hard to make a case for purdue. or usc for that matter. these are very simple common trends. not something abstract. H and Away for most and fav or dog.Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
memphis is a solid road fav going 8-2 last 10 ats on road. temple equally strong as home dog going 8-2 ats. i think this game will be tight to the number and temple covers the 4. memphis is 3-7 o/u while temple has gone 3-7 under as well. if temple keeps it tight, i think it falls under.
uab is 26-13 ats since they've been back in 17 and 8-0 su and ats in october. utsa is one of worst and are 3-9 ats at home since 17.Comment -
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interesting matchup as wku is running 35-16 ats as a dog including 13-4 ats as a home dog. army has gone 9-3 ats last 12 on the road.
isu is 9-4 ats on road since 2017 with o/u 2-11-1. wva is 3-12 ats last 15 as a dog, but all games at home went over. i think the +10 will be too much as wva will score a bit at home.Comment -
home dogs of 7+ haven't done well against the number and most games go under. Cowboy big fav at jets this week.
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falcons are 1-8 ats after losing their last two games since 15 season.
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Broncos have gone under 12 of last 13 plus 1 push. also lost 8 of 9 su and ats. a titans and under tease looks like a good play.
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Bengals are on road after being home as a fav and losing. 13 of last 14 have won in that position ats.
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Chargers are 2-7-1 as a home fav while steelers are 8-2 their last 10 as road dog. both loses came against pats.
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chiefs are 3-7 ats last 10 as home fav while texans have won 5 of 6 ats as a road dog since start of last season.Comment -
ncaa trends were up and down last week. nfl was pretty solid except for the cowboys being terrible. tonights games have some strong recent trends. lafayette is coming off a loss last week where they only scored 7 points. they are a winning team at 4-2 and 5-1 ats. this trend is in their favor tonight and is 14-0 since 15 season for away favorites under these conditions:
also with expanded parameters the system is 41-11 for a 79% win percentage since the start of the 15 season:
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stanford is 86-60 ats since start of 08 season. ucla is 26-44-2 since middle of 13 season. it is more disparity when they play each other as stanford is 11-0 su and 10-1 ats vs ucla since 2009 season:
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broncos are 1-13-1 o/u their past 15 games as majority of talent is on defense and running game. they should be able to run the ball again tonight and control clock. thursday games are weird though.
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Its quite rare when a team that gives up as many rushing yards as chiefs and doesn't control time of possession, yet is still a fav against a good rushing team.
the dog has gone 13-12 su in those games and 16-9 ats with an 8-17 o/u. puts broncos in a strong position for a tease with the under.
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Pitt is 17-8 on road since 2015 for a 68% cover rate. o/u is 2-11 on road since start of 17 season.Comment -
NW is 2-7 ats at home since start of 17 season. the under is 3-6-1 last 10 at home.Comment -
Fresno is 1-9 under last 10 as a fav and 4-15-1 o/u since oct of 17 season as a fav
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App St has been rolling since start of last season. 16-2 su and 12-4-2 ats. Monroe should be overmatched today.
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auburn qualifies under same trend as lafayette did moving it to 42-11 ats since the 15 season. 19 is a huge number so we'll see:
and teams that win 60% of their games are 26-4 ats for an 87% ats winning percentage since 15 season:
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a surprising stat is teams that rush for over 200 yds and pass for over 300 yds struggle ats the next week. BC and WF qualify today. teams in this spot are 9-15 ats for a 37% wp and are 6-21 o/u since 2014 season.
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teams that lose as a home fav and are a dog away the following week since 15 season are 26-4 ats for a 87% wp and under is 11-18 for a 38% o/u rate. (sept is excluded to remove teams with lines based on previous season in first couple weeks). this trend has offered at least 7 plays each season which is great for a play hitting at that percentage. Coastal qualifies today.
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oregon st. defense has been horrid as a dog on the road. they are giving up an avg of 46 ppg the last 15 as a road dog going 13-2 o/u.
Cal is 2-7-3 as a fav since 2016 season. both covers came against osu as they scored 37 and 49 points against them. in the game cal lost to osu, they scored 44 (41 in regulation).
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BG covered last week as a 24.5 point dog at home to move to 4-17 ats last 21 home games. it was their 10th under in last 11 games. cmu is 5-1-1 this season including 3-0 ats as a fav against bad teams. be hard for BG to pull cover again this week:
and on topic of bad teams, uconn has become an autofade. they are 15-36 ats since sept of 15 season. 29% cover pct. fading this team all season should end in a postive result.
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Purdue is a terrible home dog going 6-16 ats since 14 season. but it totally flips on the road as they are 16-5 for a 76% cover pct in same time frame. they also avg only 20.5 ppg as a road dog since 14 season and last 7 have gone under.
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ole miss has become a bad team and are 6-15 ats at home their last 21. the over is 14-7 as they avg 35.5 ppg there and give up 32 ppg. tx a.m is 7-2 ats on road since 17, but only two as a fav in close covers. aggies look like a good teaser play.Comment -
usf stole a win at home last week. teams that win despite gaining 120+ yards less than their opponent are 10-26 ats the following week as an away dog including losing 12 of last 15 ats .
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wva is 3-13-1 as a dog since 2015 and 0-4 ats against ou. 33 is a ton of points, but ou may be a good team to throw in a teaser:
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asu is known as a solid road dog. they are 8-2-1 since sep 17 including a 30-10 win at utah. also blew utah out at home last year 38-20 as a home dog. 14 is a ton of points to give up.
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michigan is 2-8 ats last ten on road. psu is very good this year. 7.5 probably won't be enough.Comment -
Closing it out with AF. this trend has been a hot fade of teams that are pass heavy. over could be a good play as both teams should score some.
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