Originally posted by dj_destroyer
60-47-1 (+$466.14)
Broncos +5.5 [-110] $11 to win 10
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6-1 (+$74.30)
60-47-1 (+$466.14)
Broncos +5.5 [-110] $11 to win 10Comment -
Nice!Originally posted by dj_destroyer
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1-2 (-$24.1)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
61-49-1 (+$442.04)
49ers -4.5 [-106] $21.20 to win 20Comment -
Nationals [-115] $23 to win 20Comment -
Yankees [-135] $13.50 to win 10Comment -
3-0 (+$50.00)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
64-49-1 (+$492.04)
Astros -1.5 [-133] $13.30 to win 10
Flames [-193] $19.30 to win 10Comment -
Adding:
Vanderbilt+Marshall+Michigan $22 to win 10
Vanderbilt+Marshall+Michigan+Joana Jedrzejczyk $11.60 to win 10
Missouri+UAB+Vanderbilt+Kent St. +Marshall+Michigan $10 to win 16.25Comment -
0-2 (-$32.60)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
64-51-1 (+$459.44)
No plays today.Comment -
Adding:
Knicks -4 [-110] $11 to win 10
Oregon+Vanderbilt+Marshall+Michigan+Duke $13.20 to win 10Comment -
0-1 (-$11)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
64-52-1 (+$448.44)
Utah/Oregon St. U59.5 [-110] $22 to win 20
New Mexico St./Central Michigan U57.5 [-110] $22 to win 20Comment -
1-5 (-$58.80)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
65-57-1 (+$389.64)
No plays today, happy (Canadian) Thanksgiving!Comment -
65-57-1 (+$389.64)
Chargers +2.5 [-115] $23 to win 20
Bears -3 [-124] $12.40 to win 10Comment -
Canucks -1.5 [+176] $20 to win 35.20
Pistons/76ers U219.5 [-110] $11 to win 10Comment -
just observation wise sir
first thing, in god we trust, all others bring data. humbly suggest you update your record to only reflect the results that you posted pre match. or even split them out into: unofficial record (including everything posted and not), and official record (posted plays only). anytime you have the chance to add transparency and credibility, do it.
second thing, i read through the thread and still am unsure what it is you are trying to accomplish. i like the idea of parlaying plays if you have an edge because the math supports it, even when you aren't getting true payout odds on your parlays. but i don't like the idea of crossing streams. seems like you have multiple strategies going on in this thread, parlays, steam chasing, maybe more?
somewhat loops back to the first point. be clear and concise on what you are doing. if you have multiple systems going on here, separate them out please. the more busy and unexplained your thread is, the more push back and negativity you will receive from other people striving to win.
you might get further in HTT if you state a single system or premise in a thread and challenge people to help refine it.
glComment -
This has come up a bit and I'm fine if the mods want to move this thread to where ever they please. I'm simply trying to track a personal system that I've been working on. I mentioned in the first post that it's likely a loser/not scientific and has a multitude of inherent problems. But to answer your questions:Originally posted by Believe_EMT
I'm not going to run two records. I tried posting all the bet slips here and in the post preview, they looked fine but then became a formatting mess when posted so I just skipped it.
Secondly, I don't think crossing streams matters whatsoever. Edges are edges and they compound (as you know) but there is no imaginary boundary blocking edges between sports.
Like I said, happy to have this moved to another forum but I couldn't find anywhere better suited for a mutlisport system based strategy.Comment -
2-0 (+$45.20)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
67-57-1 (+$434.84)
Troy+Ohio St.+Fresno St.+Central Michigan+Iowa+Cincinnati+Navy+UAB $15 to win 29.06
Central Michigan+Iowa+Cincinnati+Navy+UAB $15 to win 16.65
Iowa St.+Central Michigan+SDSU $10 to win 13.65
Mississippi State [+791] $10 to win 79.10
Boise St./BYU U50 [-111] $11.10 to win 10Comment -
Hawks/Knicks U225 [-111] $11.10 to win 10Comment -
Personally, I would like this thread moved by you or the mods. I'm not interested in your or anyone else's picks. They are a waste of my time. SBR does provide other forums to post your picks. They are grouped under the heading "Sports Betting & Handicapping Forums". They are divided by sport. You could separate your picks by sport or just post in any of the sports. There is one for "More Sports".Originally posted by dj_destroyer
Just my suggestion.Comment -
yeah, maybe i'm just looking at it the wrong way DJ
really don't care where this thread lives
personal opinion, for any type of pick posting thread to stay in HTT, it should be one that clearly states the approach and is something that can be replicated by other members. so i guess it comes down to your intentions, which i see them as:
1. you are posting picks and members can follow them or not. if so, probably belongs somewhere else, as bsims suggests.
2. you are posting in order to teach members a new approach they could learn to do on their own, add to their arsenal. if so, clearly state approach and help members to stand on their own feet.
no need to post bet slips. i, for one, appreciate the honesty in recording the plays and the amounts. refreshing to have real information posted instead of 50 Unit specials or 'going 4K on blah, blah team boys!!' that ish helps no one.
i dig what you are doing DJ, good luckComment -
I'm not going to run 6+ different threads that all follow the same theory and I can't move it myself but mods can move it wherever they see fit.Originally posted by BsimsComment -
Like I said, it's not quantitative so much as it is qualitative but basically I'm chasing steam but also trying to predict it via public perception/consensus websites, making plays that are within 20% of the opening number/line and moving in a solid direction based on a few different inputs (but none are paid services so take it with a grain of salt) and retroactively analyzing my wins/losses compared to closing line value/best line available (this is still debated on whether beating the closing line leads to value or beating the closing line or neither but we can discuss that as we go). This system also involves having multiple outs to get those best possible numbers and preferably some weaker/slow-to-move books which allows for more and easier opportunities. One of the biggest benefits of betting small time is that they allow winners so I'm still posted up at Bovada, Bodog, SIA, etc. though limited at some.Originally posted by Believe_EMT
Let me know if I can explain anything further. I tried to be clear and concise but that's only in my head
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1-0 (+$10)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
68-57-1 (+$444.84)
Golden Knights -1.5 [-115] $11.50 to win 10Comment -
From Cleat Street:
"Which sportsbook should I use?
Ignoring promotions put on by sportsbooks, the simple answer is: the book that charges the lowest vig. This makes sense: all things equal, over the long term, the book with the lowest vig holds the lowest percentage of your money.
However, this is the wrong question to ask. The right question is: how many sportsbooks should I use? Having multiple sportsbooks allows a bettor to shop for the best odds, similar to comparing prices across multiple stores when making a big purchase. Shopping for the best odds is one of the most important but least emphasized aspects of sports betting. In this article, we will demonstrate the importance of having multiple sportsbooks and how shopping for odds can have a profound impact on the returns of your sports betting portfolio.
Consider an example where a bettor bets $100/game on every MLB game during the period May 16-18, betting the money-line for the home team (the actual betting strategy and outcomes don’t matter but we will get to that).
Based on closing odds posted for these games, let’s examine what the returns would look like across six popular sportsbooks:
https://imgur.com/a/okLB2Lz
Our natural inclination may be to use a sportsbook like BetOnline or 5Dimes, which historically has been known to offer the lowest vig, while avoiding a sportsbook like Bovada, notorious for having a high vig. However, if we were to compare across multiple sportsbooks, choosing the best closing line, we can greatly improve our returns. This is what our returns would look like if we picked the best closing line across multiple books:
https://imgur.com/a/jzHkcru
Despite using the same betting example above, by shopping for the best closing line across multiple sportsbooks, a money-losing proposition has now turned into a winning one. While there are diminishing returns as you add additional sportsbooks, notice how the returns increase at every level of adding an additional sportsbook, demonstrating that even adding Bovada, the sportsbook with the highest vig, provides value when shopping for lines.
What does this all mean? Going back to our original thought experiment and looking at the bet outcomes in absolute terms, making $4,000 worth of bets with $100 bet sizes, the sportsbook with the lowest vig, BetOnline, loses $6.90. Shopping across all six sportsbooks listed generates a profit of $21.28. This is free money, the equivalent of 0.28 betting units generated out of thin air across only 40 betting units wagered. Using multiple sportsbooks to find the best price will always outperform using only one sportsbook, regardless of your betting strategy."Comment -
Sorry bud, I certainly wouldn't want to inconvenience you. I'll just have to add you to my ignore list. Good luck with your picks. Beating the books is a difficult undertaking.Originally posted by dj_destroyerComment -
Astros [+120] $20 to win 24Comment -
Oleksandr Gvozdyk [+102] $30 to win 30.60Comment -
Fresno State+Cincinnati+UAB $21 to win 10Comment -
Sean Woodson [+120] $20 to win 24
Fresno St.+Molly McCann $25.10 to win 10Comment -
Molly McCann+Iowa+Cincinnati+UAB $14.08 to win 10Comment -
1-1 (+$12.50)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
69-58-1 (+$457.34)
Lots of plays lined up for over the weekend, let's get it!Comment -
Manny Bermudez/Charles Rosa U2.5 [+165] $80 to win 140.25
Ben Sosoli/Greg Hardy O1.5 [+225] $40 to win 90
Florida Panthers [-115] $23 to win 20
Astros [-130] $13 to win 10
Sean Woodson [+115] $10 to win 11.50Comment -
76ers+Spurs+Warriors $10 to win 17.45
76ers+Molly McCann+Oleksandr Gvozdyk $10 to win 20.74Comment -
4-5 (+179.75)Originally posted by dj_destroyer
73-63-1 (+$637.09)
This is what we do, we patiently wait for some bets to explode on. I haven't made any bets above 2% let alone 4% but hit two big ones today. Relative massive profits despite a losing record. Kelly works.Comment -
Just noticed Fresno St.+Molly McCann came through but I'll add it to tomorrow's total.Comment -
SMU+Navy+Utah+San Diego St. $10 to win 14.50Comment
