Value this week seems to be the dogs

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  • RangeFinder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-27-16
    • 8041

    #1
    Value this week seems to be the dogs
    I've made 4 early plays

    All doggies

    TB +7 (NFL)

    North Carolina +3 (CFB)

    BYU +4.5 (CFB)

    Arizona +13 (NFL)

    Good luck if you follow
  • KVB
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 05-29-14
    • 74817

    #2
    Been buying some Dogs myself.

    Like that NC Range.

    I also like Akron...

    103 13-Sep NC +150
    125 14-Sep AIR FORCE +155
    133 AKRON +140
    153 IOWA -125
    167 S MISS +130
    185 TCU +105
    117 14-Sep MIA (OH) +16 (-105)
    133 AKRON +6 (-105)
    147 UNLV +20 (-105)
    171 OHIO +5.5 (-105)
    225 WEBER ST +10 (-120)
    233 MISSOURI ST +29 (-120)
    133 14-Sep AKRON +195
    139 E CAROLINA +235
    189 FLORIDA ST +240
    Comment
    • RangeFinder
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-27-16
      • 8041

      #3
      Good luck, K

      I like the Iowa play. Lets hope the dogs eat.
      Comment
      • KVB
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 05-29-14
        • 74817

        #4
        Yeah, technically that's supposed to be an UPSET buy and the line even opened at Iowa plus money. I am hitting all these right at the open, except for the later AKRON +140 play.

        By the time we could get moneylines on Iowa it started moving. To me there was value at -125 but I feel like we got screwed out of a better number.

        I suppose the books just caught on to that one too soon. It will happen as the season progresses, but we'll still catch plenty of errors and continue to beat that closer in that UPSET Basket.

        Even if these dogs have to drop an egg or two...

        Comment
        • STANDARD BET
          SBR High Roller
          • 05-10-19
          • 224

          #5
          Not buying the ravens? I think Zona gets smoked.
          Comment
          • gauchojake
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 09-17-10
            • 34116

            #6
            Tampa - I like it.
            Comment
            • jtoler
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-17-13
              • 30967

              #7
              Originally posted by KVB
              Yeah, technically that's supposed to be an UPSET buy and the line even opened at Iowa plus money. I am hitting all these right at the open, except for the later AKRON +140 play.

              By the time we could get moneylines on Iowa it started moving. To me there was value at -125 but I feel like we got screwed out of a better number.

              I suppose the books just caught on to that one too soon. It will happen as the season progresses, but we'll still catch plenty of errors and continue to beat that closer in that UPSET Basket.

              Even if these dogs have to drop an egg or two...
              wonder why that akron line dropped or was it a correction
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388179

                #8
                a lot of games to choose from here
                Comment
                • KVB
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 05-29-14
                  • 74817

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jtoler
                  wonder why that akron line dropped or was it a correction
                  Not sure, I don't see any immediate game changing injury reports or anything but I dio like the play for multiple strategies.

                  Even before the line was released I was looking at the game.

                  Originally posted by KVB
                  The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation...
                  Not only did this play qualify for multiple strategies at the open, and the UPSET basket when the line dropped, but in the Visiting Dog Fund this game had, independently, qualified for more than one adjustment that I use.

                  This is a rare game here and a rare spot to be set up. There are destined to be some plays that cross over the Funds and even some plays between the Funds that contradict each other through the year.

                  But the Akron game shines like the Queen of Diamonds here, and for so many reasons, so it seems a little unusual.

                  I have bet the game, but I sure as hell am not going all in here, games with extreme capping opinions tend to not go as planned.

                  Comment
                  • daneblazer
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 09-14-08
                    • 27861

                    #10
                    Both Akron and Central Michigan are miserable teams. Gun to head, I’d probably fade coach Sharky
                    Comment
                    • stackz125
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-03-16
                      • 6191

                      #11
                      BYU will got rocked.
                      Lean Carolina
                      Not sure about the other 2
                      BOL
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #12
                        Originally posted by jtoler
                        wonder why that akron line dropped or was it a correction
                        So not only did several market beating strategies pick up on the overlay but the pressure had to be on Akron.

                        This is not a very heavily bet game and we hit many places at the open, as they opened, throughout the week with as much as we could hit and did with multiple accounts as the early limits are very low.

                        I don't know, maybe some protection, I doubt there was nearly the number Central Michigan bets early on here.

                        Maybe I moved the line, with this highly, highly unpopular game. Maybe the books are trying to steam Akron in and take a position.

                        I don't know but it only went one direction so I hope it's a win.

                        Comment
                        • CappinTerp
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-26-09
                          • 9650

                          #13
                          I really like Tulsa +14 and IU +17.
                          Comment
                          • jtoler
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-17-13
                            • 30967

                            #14
                            Originally posted by stackz125
                            BYU will got rocked.
                            kinda think so too
                            Comment
                            • jtoler
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-17-13
                              • 30967

                              #15
                              Originally posted by KVB
                              So not only did several market beating strategies pick up on the overlay but the pressure had to be on Akron.

                              This is not a very heavily bet game and we hit many places at the open, as they opened, throughout the week with as much as we could hit and did with multiple accounts as the early limits are very low.

                              I don't know, maybe some protection, I doubt there was nearly the number Central Michigan bets early on here.

                              Maybe I moved the line, with this highly, highly unpopular game. Maybe the books are trying to steam Akron in and take a position.

                              I don't know but it only went one direction so I hope it's a win.

                              I dropped out in 8th grade bruh gonna have to dumb it down for me
                              Comment
                              • iwantcougars
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-29-09
                                • 2156

                                #16
                                Originally posted by CappinTerp
                                I really like Tulsa +14 and IU +17.
                                indiana has good value, thinking they will stay close to 7-10
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  Tampa live dog

                                  Last week many players had flu
                                  Comment
                                  • Slurry Pumper
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-18-18
                                    • 2811

                                    #18
                                    The big boy league has some barking dogs as well.

                                    Min, NYG, Den, Was, I think a moneyline bet on all of them will be a positive return.
                                    Comment
                                    • daneblazer
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 09-14-08
                                      • 27861

                                      #19
                                      Beware central Michigan backers, Akron has a turnover pencil!!

                                      Comment
                                      • Tanko
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-19-09
                                        • 5143

                                        #20
                                        CMU Starting QB (Dormady) is out. The timing of the announcment corresponds to the line change yesterday.
                                        Comment
                                        • KVB
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 05-29-14
                                          • 74817

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Tanko
                                          CMU Starting QB (Dormady) is out. The timing of the announcment corresponds to the line change yesterday.
                                          True, for the drop from 3 to 1, but this line dropped from 6 to 3 before that news was released.

                                          Any idea when he got injured? Was he questionable or just "out" yesterday/this morning?

                                          Could be dealing with inside info or manipulation here.

                                          Comment
                                          • KVB
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-29-14
                                            • 74817

                                            #22
                                            Nice work so far Range!

                                            TB comes through!

                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Slurry Pumper
                                              The big boy league has some barking dogs as well.

                                              Min, NYG, Den, Was, I think a moneyline bet on all of them will be a positive return.
                                              Don’t like minny at all. I’d love donks if it wasn’t for short week vs 10 days for bears. All things being equal id love that play.
                                              Comment
                                              • RangeFinder
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-27-16
                                                • 8041

                                                #24
                                                Well it's 1-1 so far but plenty to go
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179

                                                  #25
                                                  Value the favorite word
                                                  Of us gamblers to justify our opinions
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Pick'nParlays
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-22-08
                                                    • 3134

                                                    #26
                                                    Go get it em Range
                                                    Comment
                                                    • RangeFinder
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 10-27-16
                                                      • 8041

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Pick'nParlays
                                                      Go get it em Range
                                                      on it
                                                      Comment
                                                      • KVB
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                        • 74817

                                                        #28
                                                        We lost the NC Range, they stole the push from you.

                                                        And that bastard didn't go out of bounds only to get stood up and kill our shot at a hail mary.

                                                        Comment
                                                        • RangeFinder
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 10-27-16
                                                          • 8041

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                                          We lost the NC Range, they stole the push from you.

                                                          And that bastard didn't go out of bounds only to get stood up and kill our shot at a hail mary.

                                                          All good K, BYU rocked. Stay +EV my friend.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • RangeFinder
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 10-27-16
                                                            • 8041

                                                            #30
                                                            Adding Washington +6

                                                            Good luck
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jjgold
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 07-20-05
                                                              • 388179

                                                              #31
                                                              Ranger keeps pounding games
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RangeFinder
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 10-27-16
                                                                • 8041

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by jjgold
                                                                Ranger keeps pounding games
                                                                Books don't stand a chance
                                                                Comment
                                                                • RangeFinder
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 10-27-16
                                                                  • 8041

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Doggies went 3-2


                                                                  The add came back to bite me
                                                                  Comment
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