Those of you that have read my posts over the years know I seldom provide a write-up with my plays. If there is a play I like a lot I'll post it. I take my time making selections and seldom feel obligated to spend more convincing people to follow me with a lengthy post. More of those plays have won than lost. Even so, this week I am so optimistic about a play, I am doing a write-up.
I am in love with a Week 2 CFB total. Illini/UConn under 59.5. As my video post last Thursday proved, I took a $500 L week 1 on UConn -18.5 at home vs Wagner. In that game, against an inferior opponent , UConn rushed 48 times for 234 yards. They went 14/21 through the air for 0 TDs (unless you count the Pick 6 that went the other way for Wagner at the end of a promising drive). Even so, they eeked out the 24-21 victory in a game they should have dominated, yet ultimately deserved to lose.
Illinois, likewise favored at home week 1, also preferred the run. They rushed extensively, spreading 47 touches across 10 players.The difference here is that they dominated the game. They jumped out early on offense, dominated on defense (holding Akron to 166 total yards), and ran away 42-3. When they were up big in the third quarter they were content milking the remaining 25 minutes in front of a home crowd begging for more blood.
This week we see a game that opened at Illinois -20 move to -21.5 on heavy Illini action. Last week it was reported that two bettors plunked down $55,000 minus the points against Akron. Yesterday, once again reports came out of Vegas that a bettor laid down $55,000 on Illini minus the points at MGM for Week 2 (Same player?).
Bottom Line: The implied outcome based on the Spread and Total is something like 41-19 Illini. Even if Illini returns with some early offensive success, we should not expect them to all the sudden stay aggressive. On the Uconn side the reality is that they are not a particularly good team. Especially on offense. They prefer long drives on the ground. Due to their inconsistent QB play we should not expect to see them start airing it out, even if they fall behind early. Two teams running the ball with the better of the two playing on the road as big faves. This has under written all over it.
As always, wishing the community nothing but the best this weekend.
I am in love with a Week 2 CFB total. Illini/UConn under 59.5. As my video post last Thursday proved, I took a $500 L week 1 on UConn -18.5 at home vs Wagner. In that game, against an inferior opponent , UConn rushed 48 times for 234 yards. They went 14/21 through the air for 0 TDs (unless you count the Pick 6 that went the other way for Wagner at the end of a promising drive). Even so, they eeked out the 24-21 victory in a game they should have dominated, yet ultimately deserved to lose.
Illinois, likewise favored at home week 1, also preferred the run. They rushed extensively, spreading 47 touches across 10 players.The difference here is that they dominated the game. They jumped out early on offense, dominated on defense (holding Akron to 166 total yards), and ran away 42-3. When they were up big in the third quarter they were content milking the remaining 25 minutes in front of a home crowd begging for more blood.
This week we see a game that opened at Illinois -20 move to -21.5 on heavy Illini action. Last week it was reported that two bettors plunked down $55,000 minus the points against Akron. Yesterday, once again reports came out of Vegas that a bettor laid down $55,000 on Illini minus the points at MGM for Week 2 (Same player?).
Bottom Line: The implied outcome based on the Spread and Total is something like 41-19 Illini. Even if Illini returns with some early offensive success, we should not expect them to all the sudden stay aggressive. On the Uconn side the reality is that they are not a particularly good team. Especially on offense. They prefer long drives on the ground. Due to their inconsistent QB play we should not expect to see them start airing it out, even if they fall behind early. Two teams running the ball with the better of the two playing on the road as big faves. This has under written all over it.
As always, wishing the community nothing but the best this weekend.
an unexpected Pick 6 and two failed drives resulting in FGs. Minus the pick 6 could not have written this up better.
