One Wager For All 32 NFL Teams 🏈
One bet we like for all 32 NFL teams
NFL Betting Inisders
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The 2019 NFL season is ready to kick off, and we're here with betting previews for all 32 teams.ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) and our friends from Football Outsiders (Aaron Schatz, Rivers McCown, Brian Knowles, Derrik Klassen and Vince Verhei) combine to offer their best bets for each team, from win totals to championship odds to props and much more.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 100-1)
Over/under: 7 (O -150/U +130)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +350, No -440
Bills over 7 wins
Youmans: A strong argument can be made that Buffalo is the AFC East's second-best team. While the focus is generally on quarterback Josh Allen and his development, it's important to emphasize Buffalo ranked No. 2 in the NFL in total defense (294.1 yards per game) last season. First-round pick Ed Oliveradds strength to the defensive front. The Bills filled needs in the draft and were active in free agency, showing an urgency to win in coach Sean McDermott's third year. The schedule is weak enough to find eight wins, and maybe nine.
Allen has more playmakers, including wideouts Cole Beasley and John Brown, and the offensive line is improved. Allen still has a long way to go, but Buffalo's offense is no longer one of the league's worst.
Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl odds: 300-1 (opened 200-1)
Over/under: 4.5 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 7-9
Playoff odds: Yes +1100, No -2500
Dolphins under 4.5 wins
Knowles: In our Football Outsiders Almanac 2019 predictions, the Dolphins are dead last -- and it's not even close. Their projected DVOA is minus-25.5 percent; no one else is below minus-20 percent. Their offensive DVOA is minus-17.6 percent; no one else is below minus-15 percent. Their playoff odds are just 7.6 percent; no one else is below 10 percent. They average 5.1 wins in our simulations; no one else finishes under six. It is the worst projection a team has had in our simulation since the 2012 St. Louis Rams.
Now, the mathematically inclined might have noted that 5.1 is a larger number than 4.5, which would imply taking the over. And it's true, picking any specific team to finish 4-12 or worse is a stretch. Someone will finish with 12 or more losses -- it's happened in every 16-game season in NFL history -- but any statistical model that simulates the season a million times will naturally group teams more towards the middle. Even bad teams can get lucky -- the Dolphins win the Super Bowl in 0.1 percent of our simulations! Then again, they also finish with four or fewer wins 44 percent of the time -- no one else is even in their ballpark. With Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills and Kiko Alonso now gone via trade, this seems like an even better bet.
New England Patriots
Super Bowl odds: 13-2 (opened 8-1)
Over/under: 11 (O -150/U +130)
FPI projection: 10-6
2018 record: 11-5
Playoff odds: Yes -850, No +575
Sony Michel over 1,013.5 rushing yards (-110); NFL rushing leader (50-1)
Clay: In 16 rookie-season games including the playoffs, Michel racked up 280 carries for 1,267 yards (the latter would've ranked third in the league during the regular season). Despite facing the league's second-highest rate of in-box defenders (7.1 per rush), he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 2.0 yards after contact. The Patriots shifted to a run-first offense last season (43 percent run) and called run on a whopping 76 percent of Michel's snaps. His troublesome knee is a red flag, but he could miss a game or two and still hit the rushing yardage prop. At 50-1, he's also a strong dart throw to pace the league in rushing.
New York Jets
Super Bowl odds: 60-1 (opened 100-1)
Over/under: 7.5 (O -125/U +105)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 4-12
Playoff odds: Yes +270, No -330
Jets to make the playoffs
Knowles: Our projections don't have the Jets as a playoff team. They rank only ninth in the AFC in our playoff odds (32.4 percent), but at +300 there's enough upside here to make them a tasty long shot bet.
If something happens to New England, the Jets are in the best position to capitalize in the AFC East. The Dolphins are undergoing a massive rebuild, and we still don't trust Josh Allen's arm up in Buffalo. Sam Darnold improved by leaps and bounds as the 2018 season went along, with a December DVOA of 12.3 percent, seventh-best in the league. He should continue to improve in his sophomore season. Free agent Le'Veon Bell should improve the offense as well, and the quartet of Bell, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder and Chris Herndon(four-game suspension) is a very solid group of skill-position players. They also have the benefit of playing the second-easiest projected schedule in the league.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl odds: 45-1 (opened 40-1)
Over/under: 8 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 10-6
Playoff odds: Yes +170, No -190
Ravens under 8 wins
Clay: The Ravens averaged 1.9 touchdowns per game with Lamar Jackson as the starter last season, which would've ranked seventh-worst over the full season. Jackson posted the league's fourth-worst completion percentage (58 percent) and second-worst off-target rate (22 percent). Baltimore's defense ranked top-two in points and yardage allowed but was 22nd in forced turnovers last season. Gone and not close to completely replaced are the defense's No. 1 (Eric Weddle), No. 2 (C.J. Mosley), No. 5 (Terrell Suggs) and No. 7 (Za'Darius Smith) snap-getters from 2018. That's a massive loss of talent. Baltimore does have the league's ninth-easiest schedule, but the offensive question marks and defensive losses figure to be too much to overcome in 2019.
Ravens win the AFC North (+425)
Johnson: I'm not too surprised to show an edge on Baltimore to win the AFC North at +425. The Browns are getting plenty of hype (from a media and market perspective), and most people still project the Steelers to be the better team despite losing Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. How quickly we all forget, however, that the Ravens won this division in 2018, in a season where Jackson started just seven games at QB -- and as a rookie. While the word out of Baltimore is that the Ravens plan to air it out with Jackson more often this season, it certainly could backfire. Jackson's ability to throw accurately and consistently remains to be seen. But what if he can pass? The Ravens were already one of the best defenses in the NFL and arguably had the most dynamic rushing attack. If Jackson is making throws and getting the playmakers the ball in space, what is the ceiling for this team?
I like the prospects of a high-variance play on Jackson's upside at +425. My projections have Baltimore winning the AFC North 24.7 percent of the time (or a true line of +305). We need to win this bet only 19 percent of the time to break even, so the numbers line up as this being a profitable play long-term anyway.
Lamar Jackson over 2,858 passing yards (-110)
McCown: Every NFL quarterback who started 16 games last season threw for more than 3,400 yards. Russell Wilson did it in a regressive 1980s offense. Kirk Cousins did it despite his offensive coordinator getting fired. Case Keenum did it despite being, well, Case Keenum. The only quarterbacks who started even 13 games and hit the under on 2,858 passing yards were Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.
Jackson certainly wasn't a complete passer last season, but he has shown time and time again in college the ability to take his game up to the next level. Even at last season's passing rate, in one of the most run-heavy offenses in recent NFL history, Jackson would be projected to throw 388 times. The only quarterbacks to throw that often and not crack the over are Rosen and Blake Bortles. Keep in mind that it's going to be hard for the Ravens to run as much as they did last season, and that essentially every sign of Jackson's development in camp and in the preseason has been glowing.
The only thing that's going to keep Jackson from hitting this over is an injury. That is the bet in a nutshell.
Cincinnati Bengals
Super Bowl odds: 125-1 (opened 100-1)
Over/under: 6 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +650, No -1000
Bengals under 6 wins (-115)
Youmans: It was past time for Cincinnati to turn the page and move on from Marvin Lewis. Soon, it will be time to move past Andy Dalton and to a new quarterback. The face of the fresh start is 36-year-old coach Zac Taylor, a former Sean McVay assistant. It will take more than a year for Taylor to turn around the Bengals, who are way off the pace in the three-horse race in the AFC North. Cincinnati went 1-5 in division play last season and will do no better this season.
Top wideout A.J. Green went down with an ankle injury during the opening practice of training camp and is expected to miss time in September. The Bengals' top draft pick, offensive tackle Jonah Williams from Alabama, had shoulder surgery and is likely to miss the season. It's mostly bad news for the Bengals, who could challenge Arizona and Miami for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Cleveland Browns
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 16-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -120/U +100)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 7-8-1
Playoff odds: Yes -120, No +100
Browns over 9 wins (-120)
Clay: If the Browns win more than nine games this season, it will be the third such occasion since 1989 (and first since 2007). Of course, for the first time in a long time, they have the roster to pull it off. Last season, Cleveland scored 25 offensive TDs (tied for seventh) and posted a 67.9 total QBR (eighth) in eight games with new head coach Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator. And that was before the offseason trade for Odell Beckham Jr.
Baker Mayfield appears to be the real deal after posting a 7.8 yards per attempt last season, which ranks sixth-best among rookies since 2007. Cleveland's defense ranked top six in interceptions and forced fumbles but 28th in sack rate last season. Adding Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson will help improve the latter. The league's fifth-easiest projected schedule only helps the Browns' chances to reach double-digit wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl odds: 18-1 (opened 16-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 9-6-1
Playoff odds: Yes -130, No +110
Steelers to win the AFC North (+180)
McCown: The common wisdom after last season was that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown leaving broke up the Steelers. Five months later, Brown is more worried about finding a helmet than fitting in with the Raiders, and Bell missed all last season with Pittsburgh anyway. The Steelers managed just fine. They choked the division away by losing four of six single-score games from Thanksgiving on, but that doesn't have much of an impact on how our projections view them.
The Steelers have always been adept at finding receivers later than most teams. Diontae Johnson is already having a big preseason and could be ready to replace Brown -- if James Washington doesn't do it first.
Pittsburgh has the best projection in the division in Football Outsiders' simulation, winning it 42.6 percent of the time. A lot of that has to do with how there hasn't been much statistical decline from Ben Roethlisberger yet. The offensive line continues to be strong and helped James Conner make Bell irrelevant in 2018. The defense might finally have replaced Ryan Shazier with the trade-up for first-rounder Devin Bush at linebacker. The secondary continues to look a little shaky and the coaching staff is still intact (for better or for worse) but there's no reason to believe the Steelers are going away just yet.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Super Bowl odds: 35-1 (opened 35-1)
Over/under: 8.5 (O +120/U -140)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 11-5
Playoff odds: Yes +120, No -140
Deshaun Watson over 25.5 passing TDs
Kezirian: As I articulated in my Carson Wentz write-up, it takes much longer than we usually think to recover from a serious knee injury. Deshaun Watsonwas an MVP candidate before his injury in 2017 (19 touchdown passes in seven games), and I expect similar numbers this coming season. Bill O'Brien is a notoriously conservative coach, but that archaic philosophy must disappear if he wants to keep his job. Houston will face a much more difficult schedule in 2019 and will be forced to score more points than last season. In 2018, Houston benefited from what Warren Sharp dubbed "the easiest pass-offense schedule in the last four years." It included a laughable slate of quarterbacks including Blaine Gabbert, Cody Kessler, Brock Osweiler and three rookies. O'Brien won't have that luxury this season. He must ride Watson.
Deshaun Watson over 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)
Schatz: With Jadeveon Clowney a Seahawk and the Texans losing Kareem Jackson to free agency, Houston's defense will have a tough time shutting down a good quarterback. That's a problem, because even though Luck retired, the Texans have a rough first-place schedule including games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.
Watson passed only 505 times last season, which was 15th in the NFL. Game scripts kept him from throwing more because the Texans faced an easy opposing QB schedule, but he still cleared 4,050 yards. Now he returns all his weapons (minus Lamar Miller), and the Texans add Laremy Tunsil, Duke Johnson and Kenny Stills. There are a lot of different ways to envision Watson clearing this over, and it's hard to imagine the Texans out-and-out running away from the rest of the AFC South like they did last season until December.
Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl odds: 45-1 (opened 15-1)
Over/under: 7.5 (O -110/U -110)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 10-6
Playoff odds: Yes +230, No -270
Colts over 7.5 wins
Youmans: With a healthy Luck, I had the Colts power-rated as the No. 3 team in the AFC (behind the Chiefs and Patriots). Without him, Indianapolis slips to seventh in my conference ratings, but is still strong enough to contend for a playoff spot. The win total adjustment from 9.5 or 10 is an overreaction.
The Colts can definitely win eight or nine games with Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired in a 2017 trade with New England and started 15 games that season with a 4-11 record. Brissett is a better quarterback now, the weapons around him are improved and the offensive line is now of the league's best. Remember: Brissett has been taking the vast majority of the first-team reps this offseason. Colts coach Frank Reich is a sharp play-caller who worked wonders with Nick Foles in Philadelphia and can do something similar with Brissett. The defense also has been upgraded in every area, thanks to general manager Chris Ballard's shrewd moves.
The health of a quarterback is imperative to any over wager, and the Colts have made the best of a bad situation with Luck by signing veteran Brian Hoyer as Brissett's backup. Considering the Jaguars, Texans and Titans are flawed teams, Indianapolis has a realistic shot to win the AFC South, let alone rack up at least eight wins.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under: 8 (O -120/U +100)
FPI projection: 8-8
2018 record: 5-11
Playoff odds: Yes +200, No -240
Josh Allen under 6.5 sacks (-110)
Clay: Over the past decade, 161 first-round picks played at least one snap as a rookie. Only 15 reached 7.0 sacks (19 total edge rushers hit the mark). The average snap total for the 15 players was 691, which is notable because, same as his predecessor Dante Fowler, Allen will work behind starters Calais Campbelland Yannick Ngakoue. Both players were on the field for over 75 percent of the team's 2018 snaps. Fowler, meanwhile, averaged 23 snaps per game and recorded 2.0 sacks during his seven games as the Jaguars' No. 3 edge rusher last season.
Tennessee Titans
Super Bowl odds: 50-1 (opened 75-1)
Over/under: 7.5 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 8-8
2018 record: 9-7
Playoff odds: Yes +190, No -230
Titans under 7.5 wins
Kezirian: I liked this play a lot more at 8 wins, but I still think it cashes, and you get the bonus of plus-money. The AFC South is probably the NFL's most competitive division, and while I like head coach Mike Vrabel, I just think Tennessee is outmanned. Indianapolis took a big hit with Luck's retirement, but Houston has an elite quarterback in Watson and Jacksonville is better with the addition of Nick Foles. And I'm simply not a believer in Marcus Mariota. Management might not be, either, as potential starter Ryan Tannehill is currently the backup. The schedule also presents a brutal start. I wouldn't be that surprised if the Titans opened the season 1-6. A season with at least eight wins would entail too many upsets and consistent QB play.
Titans to win the AFC South (+600)
McCown: This isn't a bet on the Titans somehow becoming a dominant team, but rather on regression from the two teams that lapped them out of the playoffs in 2018. The loss of Luck is obviously brutal for the Colts. The Texans got help on the offensive line in the trade for Tunsil, but lost Clowney. That's on top of regression already forecasting Tennessee as an eight-win team after exchanging one of the easiest NFL schedules for the hardest.
In our current simulations, the Titans win the division 26.9 percent of the time. Things are not all roses here, between Taylor Lewan's likely four-game suspension and Jurrell Casey's stay on the physically unable to perform list. What they do have going for them, though, is the strongest recent track record in the division. They've finally promised to ride Derrick Henry and have a defense loaded with solid, steady performers.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 75-1)
Over/under: 7 (O -115/U -105)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +370, No -460
Broncos under 7 wins
Clay: Denver has registered 11 total wins over the past two seasons, and new starting QB Joe Flacco posted the league's eighth-worst completion percentage (61 percent) and fifth-worst yards per attempt (6.5) prior to losing his job to Lamar Jackson last season. In fact, Flacco's 6.3 YPA over the past four seasons is worst among 38 qualified passers. There is reason for some optimism on the defensive side of the ball, as new coach Vic Fangio's defenses have averaged a strong 2.0 touchdowns per game allowed since he returned to the NFL as a defensive coordinator in 2011. Perhaps most damning for Denver's chances is what projects as the league's hardest schedule, which makes the under extremely intriguing.
Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl odds: 6-1 (opened 6-1)
Over/under: 10.5 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 10-6
2018 record: 12-4
Playoff odds: Yes -350, No +285
Chiefs make the playoffs (-350)
Kezirian: Kansas City had a magical season in 2018, producing a 100-1 longshot MVP in Patrick Mahomes. I understand the concept of regression, but to expect a campaign without the postseason is just something I cannot grasp. While I doubt Mahomes will throw 50 TD passes again, I do think his overall ability will continue to improve. He's that talented and has the ideal coach in Andy Reid. The defense was an embarrassment, and I expect new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to improve that unit. He doesn't need to do much; the offense will still carry them.
Chiefs miss the playoffs (+285)
Knowles: Don't take this entry to mean that we're saying the Chiefs will be bad -- they rank sixth in mean wins according to our preseason forecast and are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, there are reasons to think the Chiefs will slide a little bit back to the pack in 2019.
The Chiefs saw their DVOA jump 22.3 percentage points from 2017 to 18; historically, teams that jump that much lose between a third and a half of those gains the season after -- they're better than when they started, but they fall back a little from those highs as the Plexiglass Principle takes effect. The Chiefs are better suited to hold on to those gains because they're attached to Mahomes, but he could see some regression in 2019. His 2,039 DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) season was exceptional, in every sense of the word. Since our records begin in 1986, only two quarterbacks have had multiple seasons with at least 2,000 DYAR: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, with three apiece. Add in the growing pains coming from bringing in a new defensive coordinator and the eighth-toughest projected schedule in football, and it's not hard to imagine the Chiefs taking a half-step back, even if it's just to, say, 10-6.
A +285 line means you're betting the Chiefs will miss the playoffs just over a quarter of the time. We don't have any team making the playoffs that frequently, and the Chiefs are a clear rung below the tippy-top of the projections. It's worth a flyer, just in case the Kansas City offense comes back to Earth a tad in 2019.
Mahomes over 38.5 pass TDs (-110)
Youmans: In Mahomes' second season as a starter, the so-called sophomore slump is a minor concern. It would take a major slump or an injury for him to drop off this much a season after passing for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs en route to winning league MVP. Bet on only a slight decline in those numbers this season. The Chiefs survived a potentially damaging offseason when Tyreek Hill was not suspended by the NFL, so Mahomes still has his fastest receiver in addition to rookie speedster Mecole Hardman, Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce and running backs Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy. Mahomes passed for three or more TDs in 10 games last season. Reid's offense remains just as potent, and Mahomes is a dazzling player in a league where the rules enable QBs to put up inflated numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 16-1)
Over/under: 10 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 12-4
Playoff odds: Yes -210, No +180
Philip Rivers over 28.5 pass TDs (-110)
Clay: Rivers has been money in the bank in this area, so he should be considered a strong bet to clear 28 passing touchdowns. He's done so six of the past nine seasons, including 28 or more each of the past six, and tossed 32 touchdowns in 2018. An NFL-high 78 percent of the Chargers' offensive touchdowns have been passes over the past seven seasons. Rivers is as durable as they come; he's started every Chargers game since Week 1 of 2006. A larger role for Mike Williams in his third season and the return of Hunter Henry only help his cause.
Mike Williams over 759.5 receiving yards (-110)
Knowles: After an injury-plagued rookie season, Williams broke out in 2018. His 39.2 percent receiving DVOA was second in the league, and he was 13th in DYAR despite receiving only 66 targets. Eleven of the 12 receivers ahead of him had at least 100 targets, and most of them were well over 130. If you prefer traditional stats, Williams' 664 receiving yards was second on the team, which is impressive when you consider he started the year as Los Angeles' No. 4 wideout, behind Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin.
Williams also became more consistent over the course of the season; he had at least 40 receiving yards in seven of Los Angeles' final nine games, including the postseason. In December and January, he was receiving 6.1 targets a game, up from 3.5 over the first three quarters of the season, as he took a larger and larger role in the offense. That role should only increase in 2019; Tyrell Williams has taken his 65 targets to Oakland, and running back Melvin Gordoncontinues to be in a contract dispute with the team. The door is wide open for Williams to jump up to being one of the most productive WR2s in the league.
Oakland Raiders
Super Bowl odds: 60-1 (opened 150-1)
Over/under: 6 (O -105/U -115)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 4-12
Playoff odds: Yes +475, No -650
Raiders miss the playoffs
Kezirian: It's hard to find value in money lines this high, but I think the Raiders present that rare opportunity. A -650 price suggests an 86.7 percent chance of hitting, and I feel there is a higher likelihood of this outcome. The AFC West has two legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the Chiefs and Chargers, and the Broncos improved drastically at two key positions: QB Joe Flacco and coach Vic Fangio. Beyond that, ESPN ranks Oakland's schedule as the toughest in the league. Not only do the Raiders face tough opponents, but the slate presents a stretch without a home game between Sept. 16 and Nov 2. On paper, Antonio Brown adds a huge weapon to an offense that could have its moments, but he also adds a potential headache, as we have already witnessed. The Raiders should stumble out of the gates, opening with Denver, Kansas City, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay and Houston. I do not see how Jon Gruden keeps everything intact for a playoff run.
Derek Carr over 22.5 pass TDs (-110)
Youmans: There is a hot debate in Las Vegas about Oakland's potential to top its over/under of six. The Raiders face the league's toughest travel schedule and are attempting to climb the ladder in an unforgiving division with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos. The record might not show it in the end, but Gruden should have one of the league's most improved teams, especially on offense, where the Raiders ranked 28th in scoring (18.1 PPG) last season. Brown, who had 104 receptions and 15 touchdowns in Pittsburgh last season, is expected to provide a similar boost for the Oakland offense. Gruden loves the running game, but Carr will be throwing often. It's easy to forget that Carr passed for 32 touchdowns in 2015 and 28 TDs in 2016 before declining. The Raiders are rising again, and Carr's numbers should surge with the help of Gruden's playcalling and Brown's big plays. Carr could approach 30 TD passes.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl odds: 15-1 (opened 25-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -115/U -105)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 8-8
Playoff odds: Yes -115, No -105
Cowboys miss the playoffs (-105)
Johnson: The Cowboys outscored their opponents by just 15 points last season, but thanks to a 9-3 record in one-score games, Dallas won 10 games. The Pythagorean win expectation for a point differential of plus-15 is just 8.5 wins; Dallas had the fourth-most wins above expectation in the NFL last season. I anticipate the Eagles and Giants to be better within the division (the Giants had the fewest wins versus expectation in the NFL last season), and the Cowboys have to face the Saints, Patriots and Bears on the road outside of division play. It's going to be extremely tough for Dallas to duplicate its 10-win season from 2018, and I'm not sure first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is an answer anybody can count on.
My projection for Dallas this season is 8.0 wins, and I have the Cowboys missing the playoffs 59.5 percent of the time (-147 true line). I show an edge to the under on their season win total at nine games as well, but the playoff bet offers better value. The value relative to my projections and the market makes this the strongest edge for me of any NFL futures bet I've made this summer.
New York Giants
Super Bowl odds: 75-1 (opened 35-1)
Over/under: 5.5 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 5-11
Playoff odds: Yes +550, No -800
Evan Engram over 5 total TDs (-115)
Kezirian: The Giants are a popular punchline, but they will have their moments. Saquon Barkley should provide most of them, but Engram is going to be Eli Manning's favorite target in the red zone. The tight end caught six touchdown passes in 2017 but was limited to just 11 games last season. The offensive line is also much better now, allowing Manning more scoring opportunities. More so, ESPN's Fantasy Football cheat sheet categorizes Engram as the fourth-best tight end and offers only one Giant among the top 50 wide receivers. He is poised to have a solid season with plenty of targets.
Saquon Barkley over 1,899.5 scrimmage yards (-110)
Klassen: The track record for running backs who lead the league in scrimmage yards maintaining their production the following season is admittedly not fantastic. LeSean McCoy (2013), DeMarco Murray (2014), David Johnson(2016), and Todd Gurley (2017) are the previous four running backs to hold the title. Barkley is in a unique position compared to those four, though.
Almost 75 percent of McCoy's scrimmage yards and 81.6 percent of Murray's scrimmage yards were rushing yards, and each carried the ball at least 300 times. Neither were high-volume pass-catchers, and neither came within 600 scrimmage yards of their league-leading marks the following season. The two were also heading into their sixth and fifth NFL seasons, respectively, so they weren't quite as fresh as Barkley will be. Murray, unlike anyone else on this list, switched teams the following season, too.
Not only is Barkley younger and healthier now than any of the four were in their follow-up seasons, but of Barkley's 2,028 scrimmage yards, 64.5 percent were rushing yards. Barkley also had fewer rushing attempts and more targets than any of the other four previous leaders. With Beckham Jr. out of New York, Barkley's receiving production might even climb. The Giants also traded for guard Kevin Zeitler to bolster their offensive line. All the stars are aligned for Barkley to exceed 1,900 scrimmage yards again.
Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under: 10 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 9-7
Playoff odds: Yes -230, No +190
Eagles to win the NFC East (-150)
Johnson: Last season, when they faced the sixth-toughest schedule, the Eagles ranked 12th in success rate despite playing a clearly less than 100 percent Carson Wentz at quarterback (and then losing him for the final five games of the regular season). The Eagles also ranked 26th in turnover margin and had the second-most adjusted games lost due to injury. Philadelphia still went 9-7, and I project them to have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.
The Eagles' season win total is set at 10, juiced -145 to the over. I project 10.6 wins on average, but at -145 it is close to a fair price. For just 5 cents more, however, we can bet Philadelphia to win the NFC East. A significant portion of the time the Eagles finish the season 10-6 (and push a season win total over bet), they still win the NFC East. They might even win the division occasionally at 9-7. This is a much more valuable bet than banking on 11 or more wins to cash a ticket. I project the Eagles to win the division 64.3 percent of the time, which is a true line of -180.
Eagles over 10 wins
Kezirian: I've often said that Adrian Peterson ruined the expectations of every other injured athlete, since he led the NFL in rushing the season after tearing his ACL, which desensitized fans. Recovery takes much longer for anyone else. Wentz is now playing without a knee brace, and all reports indicate he has regained his MVP form from 2017. The NFC East is seemingly a two-horse race with Dallas, and Doug Pederson is the division's best coach. The roster is loaded, and I have faith in the Eagles.
Eagles to win NFC championship
Klassen: A Super Bowl hangover and a league-high 118.5 adjusted games lost to injury didn't stop the Eagles from creeping into the playoffs last season. They even managed an upset victory over the Bears at Soldier Field before narrowly falling to the Saints. If an Eagles roster nowhere near full capacity (especially on defense) can still finish as one of the best teams in the NFL, there is no question a healthier season should propel them back to the top of the conference.
QB Carson Wentz over 3,995.5 pass yards (-110)
Youmans: With Wentz, staying healthy and on the field for 15 or 16 games is obviously a major concern. But if that happens, he will blow away this total for his passing yards. Don't be surprised if Philadelphia boasts the most improved offense in the NFL. In MVP contention in 2017, Wentz passed for 3,296 yards and 33 touchdowns before going down to a knee injury in his 13th game. The Eagles slipped to 18th in scoring offense (22.9 points per game) last season, but the personnel are in place for a big rebound.
The offensive line should be a force and Jordan Howard, rookie Miles Sandersand Darren Sproles highlight a loaded backfield. Wentz will be throwing to a ridiculously talented group of pass-catchers as well. The potential for offensive explosiveness is scary, and so is Wentz's injury history, but this prop is worth a roll of the dice. (Also consider Wentz at 8-1 odds for MVP.)
Washington Redskins
Super Bowl odds: 200-1 (opened 200-1)
Over/under: 6 (O +125/U -145)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 7-9
Playoff odds: Yes +550, No -800
Redskins under 6 wins
Clay: The Redskins have a solid offensive line (assuming Trent Williams returns) and defensive front, but it's otherwise tough to find a position where they stand out. That includes the ultra-important quarterback position, in which new QB Case Keenum completed 62 percent of his passes (10th-worst) and posted a 6.6 yards per attempt (sixth-worst) in Denver last season. If Keenum doesn't work out, the likes of Colt McCoy and rookie Dwayne Haskinswill get the call. The Washington defense was top 10 in interceptions and sacks last season and, though the Redskins added Landon Collins, they also lost Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Preston Smith and Zach Brown. Expect the Redskins to join the division-rival Giants near the top of the 2020 NFL draft order.
Redskins under 6 wins
Youmans: Nothing that happened in August pointed to the Redskins as a playoff threat. A preseason QB competition is seldom a positive sign, and if Haskins is starting early in the season, Washington will be a lost cause. Haskins isn't ready, but do the Redskins play him anyway or try to piece together a respectable record by playing Keenum and McCoy? It's a lose-lose situation for a dysfunctional organization.
The focus of coach Jay Gruden's offense will be running backs Derrius Guiceand Peterson. The quarterbacks are in a tough spot behind a bad line minus an elite left tackle in Williams, and with no big-play receivers. Collins does help a defense that will be the team's strength. Washington ranked 15th in scoring defense (22.4) last season when an injury to QB Alex Smith turned a 6-3 start into a 7-9 finish.
Four of the Redskins' first five games -- at Philadelphia, home against Dallas, Chicago and New England -- are against 2018 playoff teams, and the other game is against the Giants on the road. It should be rough sailing early and speculation will heat up about Gruden going down with the ship. Last season, 12 NFL teams finished with six or fewer wins. The rebuilding Redskins, not the Giants, will sink to the bottom of the NFC East.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Super Bowl odds: 9-1 (opened 12-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 12-4
Playoff odds: Yes -120, No +100
Bears under 9 wins
Klassen: Our projections have the Bears finishing last in the division. Granted, the NFC North is the tightest division in the NFL and a projected 7.9 wins would make the Bears the "best" fourth-place team, but that won't earn Chicago anything other than a dash of sympathy from analysts.
Fewer than nine wins and a last-place finish seems outlandish for a team that smashed the division with a 12-4 record just last season, but it took a lot of things going the Bears' way for them to have the success they did. For one, Chicago's outstanding defense is expected to regress a bit. Not only is defense less stable year over year than offense is, but the Bears led the league in ending 19.1 percent of their defensive drives with turnovers, which should not be expected to hold. Chicago also had the third-fewest adjusted games lost due to injury -- a bit of good fortune that is likely to swing back the other way this season. Considering their poor and/or unproven depth at outside linebacker, cornerback and wide receiver, the last thing a Bears team already set for regression needs is a long injury list.
The Bears' schedule is significantly tougher this season, too. In 2018, Chicago finished with the second-easiest schedule per DVOA, ahead of only the Colts. Its projected 2019 schedule is the fifth-hardest in the league. The Bears' saving grace will have to be a massive season from Mitchell Trubisky and the offense. Good luck to you if that's the quarterback you want to put your money on.
Detroit Lions
Super Bowl odds: 75-1 (opened 125-1)
Over/under: 6.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +320, No -400
Lions win NFC North (7-1)
Clay: Nearly every season there is a team that goes from worst to first in its division. In 2019, the competitiveness of the NFC North could allow the Lions to be the team that makes the surprising leap. Detroit made some significant offseason improvements: adding Trey Flowers to a stagnant pass rush, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin to a weak cornerback group behind Darius Slayand rookie T.J. Hockenson, and Jesse James to a tight end room that had been a nonfactor. Detroit has a solid quarterback in Matthew Stafford and comes in around league average in both offensive and defensive talent on paper. That's enough to keep the Lions competitive and it makes them an intriguing bet at 7-1.
Lions win NFC North (7-1)
Klassen: The Bears (+190), Packers (+200) and Vikings (+200) all have virtually the same chance to win the division, but Football Outsiders' projections have the Lions winning the NFC North in 25.5 percent of simulations, trailing only the Packers.
The Lions' roster might not be sexy at first glance, but it's filled out far better than it was a year ago. Tight ends James and Hockenson are an incalculable upgrade over Levine Toilolo, while Danny Amendola should fill in nicely in the short-area receiver role that was vacated when Golden Tate was traded midseason. Detroit was the fifth-worst short passing offense in the league per DVOA, and the front office made it its mission to fix that.
It would be a stretch to say the Lions should be expected to win the NFC North title, but their DVOA projections and favorable schedule give them as good a chance as anyone in a tight division. With its betting odds being significantly lower than the other three teams, Detroit is an easy value call.
Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl odds: 18-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -125/U +105)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 6-9-1
Playoff odds: Yes -110, No -110
Packers miss the playoffs
Youmans: It's never easy to bet against Aaron Rodgers, but his durability is a concern and an injury to Rodgers would sink the Packers' season. Rodgers was outstanding last season, passing for 25 touchdowns with two interceptions. The result? A 6-9-1 finish for Green Bay. The Packers' personnel is not dramatically improved, and Rodgers appears less than thrilled about new coach Matt LaFleur, who called the plays as Tennessee's offensive coordinator last season. The result? The Titans ranked 25th in total offense and 27th in scoring. Pro-Packers bettors will argue Rodgers is playing with something to prove now that Mike McCarthy is history, and while that's probably true, LaFleur might not be an upgrade.
Green Bay's defense, which ranked 18th in the league last season, will miss Clay Matthews and looks to be the worst in the NFC North. This is a mediocre team with a great quarterback. If Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers can win nine games and contend for a playoff spot, but that's the best-case scenario.
Minnesota Vikings
Super Bowl odds: 20-1 (opened 18-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -125/U +105)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 8-7-1
Playoff odds: Yes +115, No -135
Vikings over 9 wins
Youmans: Kirk Cousins was overpaid with expectations that he could get the Vikings over the top last season. When everything fell apart, he became a convenient scapegoat. The veteran quarterback did not play well in the biggest games -- similar to his career in Washington -- but did complete 70.1 percent of his passes with 30 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and wasn't as bad as public perception. Now that the fan and media sizzle has fizzled, it's time to buy the Vikings.
In 2017, Minnesota was a 13-3 team with the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 PPG) in the NFL. Injuries had something to do with last season's decline. Mike Zimmer, the best head coach in the division, made smart changes in his staff that should pay off. Look for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to boost the rushing attack behind an improved line. Not to make excuses for Cousins, but a weak line, absent running game and poor offensive coordinator contributed to his failings in 2018. It's tricky to bet on Cousins to deliver, but give him a second chance, because this Minnesota team is built to win -- and should be much better in 2019.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 30-1)
Over/under: 8.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection: 8-8
2018 record: 7-9
Playoff odds: Yes +155, No -175
Falcons make the playoffs
[COLOR=#48494A][FONT=Georgia][B][B][B]Walder: According to our efficiency numbers (expected points added per play, with garbage time down-weighted), Atlanta had the seventh-best offense last season but the 31st defense. Offense is more stable year to year than defense in the NFL, so we'd expect more regression on the latter than the former -- a good thing for Atlanta. But we aren't just banking on regression; we're also banking on Deion Jones. The elite linebacker was out for most of last season, but the difference he makes is drastic. Opponents' expected points added per play dropped from .21 to minus-.05 from when
NFL Betting Inisders
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The 2019 NFL season is ready to kick off, and we're here with betting previews for all 32 teams.ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) and our friends from Football Outsiders (Aaron Schatz, Rivers McCown, Brian Knowles, Derrik Klassen and Vince Verhei) combine to offer their best bets for each team, from win totals to championship odds to props and much more.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 100-1)
Over/under: 7 (O -150/U +130)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +350, No -440
Bills over 7 wins
Youmans: A strong argument can be made that Buffalo is the AFC East's second-best team. While the focus is generally on quarterback Josh Allen and his development, it's important to emphasize Buffalo ranked No. 2 in the NFL in total defense (294.1 yards per game) last season. First-round pick Ed Oliveradds strength to the defensive front. The Bills filled needs in the draft and were active in free agency, showing an urgency to win in coach Sean McDermott's third year. The schedule is weak enough to find eight wins, and maybe nine.
Allen has more playmakers, including wideouts Cole Beasley and John Brown, and the offensive line is improved. Allen still has a long way to go, but Buffalo's offense is no longer one of the league's worst.
Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl odds: 300-1 (opened 200-1)
Over/under: 4.5 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 7-9
Playoff odds: Yes +1100, No -2500
Dolphins under 4.5 wins
Knowles: In our Football Outsiders Almanac 2019 predictions, the Dolphins are dead last -- and it's not even close. Their projected DVOA is minus-25.5 percent; no one else is below minus-20 percent. Their offensive DVOA is minus-17.6 percent; no one else is below minus-15 percent. Their playoff odds are just 7.6 percent; no one else is below 10 percent. They average 5.1 wins in our simulations; no one else finishes under six. It is the worst projection a team has had in our simulation since the 2012 St. Louis Rams.
Now, the mathematically inclined might have noted that 5.1 is a larger number than 4.5, which would imply taking the over. And it's true, picking any specific team to finish 4-12 or worse is a stretch. Someone will finish with 12 or more losses -- it's happened in every 16-game season in NFL history -- but any statistical model that simulates the season a million times will naturally group teams more towards the middle. Even bad teams can get lucky -- the Dolphins win the Super Bowl in 0.1 percent of our simulations! Then again, they also finish with four or fewer wins 44 percent of the time -- no one else is even in their ballpark. With Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills and Kiko Alonso now gone via trade, this seems like an even better bet.
New England Patriots
Super Bowl odds: 13-2 (opened 8-1)
Over/under: 11 (O -150/U +130)
FPI projection: 10-6
2018 record: 11-5
Playoff odds: Yes -850, No +575
Sony Michel over 1,013.5 rushing yards (-110); NFL rushing leader (50-1)
Clay: In 16 rookie-season games including the playoffs, Michel racked up 280 carries for 1,267 yards (the latter would've ranked third in the league during the regular season). Despite facing the league's second-highest rate of in-box defenders (7.1 per rush), he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 2.0 yards after contact. The Patriots shifted to a run-first offense last season (43 percent run) and called run on a whopping 76 percent of Michel's snaps. His troublesome knee is a red flag, but he could miss a game or two and still hit the rushing yardage prop. At 50-1, he's also a strong dart throw to pace the league in rushing.
New York Jets
Super Bowl odds: 60-1 (opened 100-1)
Over/under: 7.5 (O -125/U +105)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 4-12
Playoff odds: Yes +270, No -330
Jets to make the playoffs
Knowles: Our projections don't have the Jets as a playoff team. They rank only ninth in the AFC in our playoff odds (32.4 percent), but at +300 there's enough upside here to make them a tasty long shot bet.
If something happens to New England, the Jets are in the best position to capitalize in the AFC East. The Dolphins are undergoing a massive rebuild, and we still don't trust Josh Allen's arm up in Buffalo. Sam Darnold improved by leaps and bounds as the 2018 season went along, with a December DVOA of 12.3 percent, seventh-best in the league. He should continue to improve in his sophomore season. Free agent Le'Veon Bell should improve the offense as well, and the quartet of Bell, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder and Chris Herndon(four-game suspension) is a very solid group of skill-position players. They also have the benefit of playing the second-easiest projected schedule in the league.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl odds: 45-1 (opened 40-1)
Over/under: 8 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 10-6
Playoff odds: Yes +170, No -190
Ravens under 8 wins
Clay: The Ravens averaged 1.9 touchdowns per game with Lamar Jackson as the starter last season, which would've ranked seventh-worst over the full season. Jackson posted the league's fourth-worst completion percentage (58 percent) and second-worst off-target rate (22 percent). Baltimore's defense ranked top-two in points and yardage allowed but was 22nd in forced turnovers last season. Gone and not close to completely replaced are the defense's No. 1 (Eric Weddle), No. 2 (C.J. Mosley), No. 5 (Terrell Suggs) and No. 7 (Za'Darius Smith) snap-getters from 2018. That's a massive loss of talent. Baltimore does have the league's ninth-easiest schedule, but the offensive question marks and defensive losses figure to be too much to overcome in 2019.
Ravens win the AFC North (+425)
Johnson: I'm not too surprised to show an edge on Baltimore to win the AFC North at +425. The Browns are getting plenty of hype (from a media and market perspective), and most people still project the Steelers to be the better team despite losing Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. How quickly we all forget, however, that the Ravens won this division in 2018, in a season where Jackson started just seven games at QB -- and as a rookie. While the word out of Baltimore is that the Ravens plan to air it out with Jackson more often this season, it certainly could backfire. Jackson's ability to throw accurately and consistently remains to be seen. But what if he can pass? The Ravens were already one of the best defenses in the NFL and arguably had the most dynamic rushing attack. If Jackson is making throws and getting the playmakers the ball in space, what is the ceiling for this team?
I like the prospects of a high-variance play on Jackson's upside at +425. My projections have Baltimore winning the AFC North 24.7 percent of the time (or a true line of +305). We need to win this bet only 19 percent of the time to break even, so the numbers line up as this being a profitable play long-term anyway.
Lamar Jackson over 2,858 passing yards (-110)
McCown: Every NFL quarterback who started 16 games last season threw for more than 3,400 yards. Russell Wilson did it in a regressive 1980s offense. Kirk Cousins did it despite his offensive coordinator getting fired. Case Keenum did it despite being, well, Case Keenum. The only quarterbacks who started even 13 games and hit the under on 2,858 passing yards were Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.
Jackson certainly wasn't a complete passer last season, but he has shown time and time again in college the ability to take his game up to the next level. Even at last season's passing rate, in one of the most run-heavy offenses in recent NFL history, Jackson would be projected to throw 388 times. The only quarterbacks to throw that often and not crack the over are Rosen and Blake Bortles. Keep in mind that it's going to be hard for the Ravens to run as much as they did last season, and that essentially every sign of Jackson's development in camp and in the preseason has been glowing.
The only thing that's going to keep Jackson from hitting this over is an injury. That is the bet in a nutshell.
Cincinnati Bengals
Super Bowl odds: 125-1 (opened 100-1)
Over/under: 6 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +650, No -1000
Bengals under 6 wins (-115)
Youmans: It was past time for Cincinnati to turn the page and move on from Marvin Lewis. Soon, it will be time to move past Andy Dalton and to a new quarterback. The face of the fresh start is 36-year-old coach Zac Taylor, a former Sean McVay assistant. It will take more than a year for Taylor to turn around the Bengals, who are way off the pace in the three-horse race in the AFC North. Cincinnati went 1-5 in division play last season and will do no better this season.
Top wideout A.J. Green went down with an ankle injury during the opening practice of training camp and is expected to miss time in September. The Bengals' top draft pick, offensive tackle Jonah Williams from Alabama, had shoulder surgery and is likely to miss the season. It's mostly bad news for the Bengals, who could challenge Arizona and Miami for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Cleveland Browns
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 16-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -120/U +100)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 7-8-1
Playoff odds: Yes -120, No +100
Browns over 9 wins (-120)
Clay: If the Browns win more than nine games this season, it will be the third such occasion since 1989 (and first since 2007). Of course, for the first time in a long time, they have the roster to pull it off. Last season, Cleveland scored 25 offensive TDs (tied for seventh) and posted a 67.9 total QBR (eighth) in eight games with new head coach Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator. And that was before the offseason trade for Odell Beckham Jr.
Baker Mayfield appears to be the real deal after posting a 7.8 yards per attempt last season, which ranks sixth-best among rookies since 2007. Cleveland's defense ranked top six in interceptions and forced fumbles but 28th in sack rate last season. Adding Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson will help improve the latter. The league's fifth-easiest projected schedule only helps the Browns' chances to reach double-digit wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl odds: 18-1 (opened 16-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 9-6-1
Playoff odds: Yes -130, No +110
Steelers to win the AFC North (+180)
McCown: The common wisdom after last season was that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown leaving broke up the Steelers. Five months later, Brown is more worried about finding a helmet than fitting in with the Raiders, and Bell missed all last season with Pittsburgh anyway. The Steelers managed just fine. They choked the division away by losing four of six single-score games from Thanksgiving on, but that doesn't have much of an impact on how our projections view them.
The Steelers have always been adept at finding receivers later than most teams. Diontae Johnson is already having a big preseason and could be ready to replace Brown -- if James Washington doesn't do it first.
Pittsburgh has the best projection in the division in Football Outsiders' simulation, winning it 42.6 percent of the time. A lot of that has to do with how there hasn't been much statistical decline from Ben Roethlisberger yet. The offensive line continues to be strong and helped James Conner make Bell irrelevant in 2018. The defense might finally have replaced Ryan Shazier with the trade-up for first-rounder Devin Bush at linebacker. The secondary continues to look a little shaky and the coaching staff is still intact (for better or for worse) but there's no reason to believe the Steelers are going away just yet.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Super Bowl odds: 35-1 (opened 35-1)
Over/under: 8.5 (O +120/U -140)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 11-5
Playoff odds: Yes +120, No -140
Deshaun Watson over 25.5 passing TDs
Kezirian: As I articulated in my Carson Wentz write-up, it takes much longer than we usually think to recover from a serious knee injury. Deshaun Watsonwas an MVP candidate before his injury in 2017 (19 touchdown passes in seven games), and I expect similar numbers this coming season. Bill O'Brien is a notoriously conservative coach, but that archaic philosophy must disappear if he wants to keep his job. Houston will face a much more difficult schedule in 2019 and will be forced to score more points than last season. In 2018, Houston benefited from what Warren Sharp dubbed "the easiest pass-offense schedule in the last four years." It included a laughable slate of quarterbacks including Blaine Gabbert, Cody Kessler, Brock Osweiler and three rookies. O'Brien won't have that luxury this season. He must ride Watson.
Deshaun Watson over 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)
Schatz: With Jadeveon Clowney a Seahawk and the Texans losing Kareem Jackson to free agency, Houston's defense will have a tough time shutting down a good quarterback. That's a problem, because even though Luck retired, the Texans have a rough first-place schedule including games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.
Watson passed only 505 times last season, which was 15th in the NFL. Game scripts kept him from throwing more because the Texans faced an easy opposing QB schedule, but he still cleared 4,050 yards. Now he returns all his weapons (minus Lamar Miller), and the Texans add Laremy Tunsil, Duke Johnson and Kenny Stills. There are a lot of different ways to envision Watson clearing this over, and it's hard to imagine the Texans out-and-out running away from the rest of the AFC South like they did last season until December.
Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl odds: 45-1 (opened 15-1)
Over/under: 7.5 (O -110/U -110)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 10-6
Playoff odds: Yes +230, No -270
Colts over 7.5 wins
Youmans: With a healthy Luck, I had the Colts power-rated as the No. 3 team in the AFC (behind the Chiefs and Patriots). Without him, Indianapolis slips to seventh in my conference ratings, but is still strong enough to contend for a playoff spot. The win total adjustment from 9.5 or 10 is an overreaction.
The Colts can definitely win eight or nine games with Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired in a 2017 trade with New England and started 15 games that season with a 4-11 record. Brissett is a better quarterback now, the weapons around him are improved and the offensive line is now of the league's best. Remember: Brissett has been taking the vast majority of the first-team reps this offseason. Colts coach Frank Reich is a sharp play-caller who worked wonders with Nick Foles in Philadelphia and can do something similar with Brissett. The defense also has been upgraded in every area, thanks to general manager Chris Ballard's shrewd moves.
The health of a quarterback is imperative to any over wager, and the Colts have made the best of a bad situation with Luck by signing veteran Brian Hoyer as Brissett's backup. Considering the Jaguars, Texans and Titans are flawed teams, Indianapolis has a realistic shot to win the AFC South, let alone rack up at least eight wins.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under: 8 (O -120/U +100)
FPI projection: 8-8
2018 record: 5-11
Playoff odds: Yes +200, No -240
Josh Allen under 6.5 sacks (-110)
Clay: Over the past decade, 161 first-round picks played at least one snap as a rookie. Only 15 reached 7.0 sacks (19 total edge rushers hit the mark). The average snap total for the 15 players was 691, which is notable because, same as his predecessor Dante Fowler, Allen will work behind starters Calais Campbelland Yannick Ngakoue. Both players were on the field for over 75 percent of the team's 2018 snaps. Fowler, meanwhile, averaged 23 snaps per game and recorded 2.0 sacks during his seven games as the Jaguars' No. 3 edge rusher last season.
Tennessee Titans
Super Bowl odds: 50-1 (opened 75-1)
Over/under: 7.5 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 8-8
2018 record: 9-7
Playoff odds: Yes +190, No -230
Titans under 7.5 wins
Kezirian: I liked this play a lot more at 8 wins, but I still think it cashes, and you get the bonus of plus-money. The AFC South is probably the NFL's most competitive division, and while I like head coach Mike Vrabel, I just think Tennessee is outmanned. Indianapolis took a big hit with Luck's retirement, but Houston has an elite quarterback in Watson and Jacksonville is better with the addition of Nick Foles. And I'm simply not a believer in Marcus Mariota. Management might not be, either, as potential starter Ryan Tannehill is currently the backup. The schedule also presents a brutal start. I wouldn't be that surprised if the Titans opened the season 1-6. A season with at least eight wins would entail too many upsets and consistent QB play.
Titans to win the AFC South (+600)
McCown: This isn't a bet on the Titans somehow becoming a dominant team, but rather on regression from the two teams that lapped them out of the playoffs in 2018. The loss of Luck is obviously brutal for the Colts. The Texans got help on the offensive line in the trade for Tunsil, but lost Clowney. That's on top of regression already forecasting Tennessee as an eight-win team after exchanging one of the easiest NFL schedules for the hardest.
In our current simulations, the Titans win the division 26.9 percent of the time. Things are not all roses here, between Taylor Lewan's likely four-game suspension and Jurrell Casey's stay on the physically unable to perform list. What they do have going for them, though, is the strongest recent track record in the division. They've finally promised to ride Derrick Henry and have a defense loaded with solid, steady performers.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 75-1)
Over/under: 7 (O -115/U -105)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +370, No -460
Broncos under 7 wins
Clay: Denver has registered 11 total wins over the past two seasons, and new starting QB Joe Flacco posted the league's eighth-worst completion percentage (61 percent) and fifth-worst yards per attempt (6.5) prior to losing his job to Lamar Jackson last season. In fact, Flacco's 6.3 YPA over the past four seasons is worst among 38 qualified passers. There is reason for some optimism on the defensive side of the ball, as new coach Vic Fangio's defenses have averaged a strong 2.0 touchdowns per game allowed since he returned to the NFL as a defensive coordinator in 2011. Perhaps most damning for Denver's chances is what projects as the league's hardest schedule, which makes the under extremely intriguing.
Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl odds: 6-1 (opened 6-1)
Over/under: 10.5 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 10-6
2018 record: 12-4
Playoff odds: Yes -350, No +285
Chiefs make the playoffs (-350)
Kezirian: Kansas City had a magical season in 2018, producing a 100-1 longshot MVP in Patrick Mahomes. I understand the concept of regression, but to expect a campaign without the postseason is just something I cannot grasp. While I doubt Mahomes will throw 50 TD passes again, I do think his overall ability will continue to improve. He's that talented and has the ideal coach in Andy Reid. The defense was an embarrassment, and I expect new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to improve that unit. He doesn't need to do much; the offense will still carry them.
Chiefs miss the playoffs (+285)
Knowles: Don't take this entry to mean that we're saying the Chiefs will be bad -- they rank sixth in mean wins according to our preseason forecast and are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, there are reasons to think the Chiefs will slide a little bit back to the pack in 2019.
The Chiefs saw their DVOA jump 22.3 percentage points from 2017 to 18; historically, teams that jump that much lose between a third and a half of those gains the season after -- they're better than when they started, but they fall back a little from those highs as the Plexiglass Principle takes effect. The Chiefs are better suited to hold on to those gains because they're attached to Mahomes, but he could see some regression in 2019. His 2,039 DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) season was exceptional, in every sense of the word. Since our records begin in 1986, only two quarterbacks have had multiple seasons with at least 2,000 DYAR: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, with three apiece. Add in the growing pains coming from bringing in a new defensive coordinator and the eighth-toughest projected schedule in football, and it's not hard to imagine the Chiefs taking a half-step back, even if it's just to, say, 10-6.
A +285 line means you're betting the Chiefs will miss the playoffs just over a quarter of the time. We don't have any team making the playoffs that frequently, and the Chiefs are a clear rung below the tippy-top of the projections. It's worth a flyer, just in case the Kansas City offense comes back to Earth a tad in 2019.
Mahomes over 38.5 pass TDs (-110)
Youmans: In Mahomes' second season as a starter, the so-called sophomore slump is a minor concern. It would take a major slump or an injury for him to drop off this much a season after passing for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs en route to winning league MVP. Bet on only a slight decline in those numbers this season. The Chiefs survived a potentially damaging offseason when Tyreek Hill was not suspended by the NFL, so Mahomes still has his fastest receiver in addition to rookie speedster Mecole Hardman, Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce and running backs Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy. Mahomes passed for three or more TDs in 10 games last season. Reid's offense remains just as potent, and Mahomes is a dazzling player in a league where the rules enable QBs to put up inflated numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 16-1)
Over/under: 10 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 12-4
Playoff odds: Yes -210, No +180
Philip Rivers over 28.5 pass TDs (-110)
Clay: Rivers has been money in the bank in this area, so he should be considered a strong bet to clear 28 passing touchdowns. He's done so six of the past nine seasons, including 28 or more each of the past six, and tossed 32 touchdowns in 2018. An NFL-high 78 percent of the Chargers' offensive touchdowns have been passes over the past seven seasons. Rivers is as durable as they come; he's started every Chargers game since Week 1 of 2006. A larger role for Mike Williams in his third season and the return of Hunter Henry only help his cause.
Mike Williams over 759.5 receiving yards (-110)
Knowles: After an injury-plagued rookie season, Williams broke out in 2018. His 39.2 percent receiving DVOA was second in the league, and he was 13th in DYAR despite receiving only 66 targets. Eleven of the 12 receivers ahead of him had at least 100 targets, and most of them were well over 130. If you prefer traditional stats, Williams' 664 receiving yards was second on the team, which is impressive when you consider he started the year as Los Angeles' No. 4 wideout, behind Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin.
Williams also became more consistent over the course of the season; he had at least 40 receiving yards in seven of Los Angeles' final nine games, including the postseason. In December and January, he was receiving 6.1 targets a game, up from 3.5 over the first three quarters of the season, as he took a larger and larger role in the offense. That role should only increase in 2019; Tyrell Williams has taken his 65 targets to Oakland, and running back Melvin Gordoncontinues to be in a contract dispute with the team. The door is wide open for Williams to jump up to being one of the most productive WR2s in the league.
Oakland Raiders
Super Bowl odds: 60-1 (opened 150-1)
Over/under: 6 (O -105/U -115)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 4-12
Playoff odds: Yes +475, No -650
Raiders miss the playoffs
Kezirian: It's hard to find value in money lines this high, but I think the Raiders present that rare opportunity. A -650 price suggests an 86.7 percent chance of hitting, and I feel there is a higher likelihood of this outcome. The AFC West has two legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the Chiefs and Chargers, and the Broncos improved drastically at two key positions: QB Joe Flacco and coach Vic Fangio. Beyond that, ESPN ranks Oakland's schedule as the toughest in the league. Not only do the Raiders face tough opponents, but the slate presents a stretch without a home game between Sept. 16 and Nov 2. On paper, Antonio Brown adds a huge weapon to an offense that could have its moments, but he also adds a potential headache, as we have already witnessed. The Raiders should stumble out of the gates, opening with Denver, Kansas City, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay and Houston. I do not see how Jon Gruden keeps everything intact for a playoff run.
Derek Carr over 22.5 pass TDs (-110)
Youmans: There is a hot debate in Las Vegas about Oakland's potential to top its over/under of six. The Raiders face the league's toughest travel schedule and are attempting to climb the ladder in an unforgiving division with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos. The record might not show it in the end, but Gruden should have one of the league's most improved teams, especially on offense, where the Raiders ranked 28th in scoring (18.1 PPG) last season. Brown, who had 104 receptions and 15 touchdowns in Pittsburgh last season, is expected to provide a similar boost for the Oakland offense. Gruden loves the running game, but Carr will be throwing often. It's easy to forget that Carr passed for 32 touchdowns in 2015 and 28 TDs in 2016 before declining. The Raiders are rising again, and Carr's numbers should surge with the help of Gruden's playcalling and Brown's big plays. Carr could approach 30 TD passes.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl odds: 15-1 (opened 25-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -115/U -105)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 8-8
Playoff odds: Yes -115, No -105
Cowboys miss the playoffs (-105)
Johnson: The Cowboys outscored their opponents by just 15 points last season, but thanks to a 9-3 record in one-score games, Dallas won 10 games. The Pythagorean win expectation for a point differential of plus-15 is just 8.5 wins; Dallas had the fourth-most wins above expectation in the NFL last season. I anticipate the Eagles and Giants to be better within the division (the Giants had the fewest wins versus expectation in the NFL last season), and the Cowboys have to face the Saints, Patriots and Bears on the road outside of division play. It's going to be extremely tough for Dallas to duplicate its 10-win season from 2018, and I'm not sure first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is an answer anybody can count on.
My projection for Dallas this season is 8.0 wins, and I have the Cowboys missing the playoffs 59.5 percent of the time (-147 true line). I show an edge to the under on their season win total at nine games as well, but the playoff bet offers better value. The value relative to my projections and the market makes this the strongest edge for me of any NFL futures bet I've made this summer.
New York Giants
Super Bowl odds: 75-1 (opened 35-1)
Over/under: 5.5 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 5-11
Playoff odds: Yes +550, No -800
Evan Engram over 5 total TDs (-115)
Kezirian: The Giants are a popular punchline, but they will have their moments. Saquon Barkley should provide most of them, but Engram is going to be Eli Manning's favorite target in the red zone. The tight end caught six touchdown passes in 2017 but was limited to just 11 games last season. The offensive line is also much better now, allowing Manning more scoring opportunities. More so, ESPN's Fantasy Football cheat sheet categorizes Engram as the fourth-best tight end and offers only one Giant among the top 50 wide receivers. He is poised to have a solid season with plenty of targets.
Saquon Barkley over 1,899.5 scrimmage yards (-110)
Klassen: The track record for running backs who lead the league in scrimmage yards maintaining their production the following season is admittedly not fantastic. LeSean McCoy (2013), DeMarco Murray (2014), David Johnson(2016), and Todd Gurley (2017) are the previous four running backs to hold the title. Barkley is in a unique position compared to those four, though.
Almost 75 percent of McCoy's scrimmage yards and 81.6 percent of Murray's scrimmage yards were rushing yards, and each carried the ball at least 300 times. Neither were high-volume pass-catchers, and neither came within 600 scrimmage yards of their league-leading marks the following season. The two were also heading into their sixth and fifth NFL seasons, respectively, so they weren't quite as fresh as Barkley will be. Murray, unlike anyone else on this list, switched teams the following season, too.
Not only is Barkley younger and healthier now than any of the four were in their follow-up seasons, but of Barkley's 2,028 scrimmage yards, 64.5 percent were rushing yards. Barkley also had fewer rushing attempts and more targets than any of the other four previous leaders. With Beckham Jr. out of New York, Barkley's receiving production might even climb. The Giants also traded for guard Kevin Zeitler to bolster their offensive line. All the stars are aligned for Barkley to exceed 1,900 scrimmage yards again.
Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under: 10 (O -145/U +125)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 9-7
Playoff odds: Yes -230, No +190
Eagles to win the NFC East (-150)
Johnson: Last season, when they faced the sixth-toughest schedule, the Eagles ranked 12th in success rate despite playing a clearly less than 100 percent Carson Wentz at quarterback (and then losing him for the final five games of the regular season). The Eagles also ranked 26th in turnover margin and had the second-most adjusted games lost due to injury. Philadelphia still went 9-7, and I project them to have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.
The Eagles' season win total is set at 10, juiced -145 to the over. I project 10.6 wins on average, but at -145 it is close to a fair price. For just 5 cents more, however, we can bet Philadelphia to win the NFC East. A significant portion of the time the Eagles finish the season 10-6 (and push a season win total over bet), they still win the NFC East. They might even win the division occasionally at 9-7. This is a much more valuable bet than banking on 11 or more wins to cash a ticket. I project the Eagles to win the division 64.3 percent of the time, which is a true line of -180.
Eagles over 10 wins
Kezirian: I've often said that Adrian Peterson ruined the expectations of every other injured athlete, since he led the NFL in rushing the season after tearing his ACL, which desensitized fans. Recovery takes much longer for anyone else. Wentz is now playing without a knee brace, and all reports indicate he has regained his MVP form from 2017. The NFC East is seemingly a two-horse race with Dallas, and Doug Pederson is the division's best coach. The roster is loaded, and I have faith in the Eagles.
Eagles to win NFC championship
Klassen: A Super Bowl hangover and a league-high 118.5 adjusted games lost to injury didn't stop the Eagles from creeping into the playoffs last season. They even managed an upset victory over the Bears at Soldier Field before narrowly falling to the Saints. If an Eagles roster nowhere near full capacity (especially on defense) can still finish as one of the best teams in the NFL, there is no question a healthier season should propel them back to the top of the conference.
QB Carson Wentz over 3,995.5 pass yards (-110)
Youmans: With Wentz, staying healthy and on the field for 15 or 16 games is obviously a major concern. But if that happens, he will blow away this total for his passing yards. Don't be surprised if Philadelphia boasts the most improved offense in the NFL. In MVP contention in 2017, Wentz passed for 3,296 yards and 33 touchdowns before going down to a knee injury in his 13th game. The Eagles slipped to 18th in scoring offense (22.9 points per game) last season, but the personnel are in place for a big rebound.
The offensive line should be a force and Jordan Howard, rookie Miles Sandersand Darren Sproles highlight a loaded backfield. Wentz will be throwing to a ridiculously talented group of pass-catchers as well. The potential for offensive explosiveness is scary, and so is Wentz's injury history, but this prop is worth a roll of the dice. (Also consider Wentz at 8-1 odds for MVP.)
Washington Redskins
Super Bowl odds: 200-1 (opened 200-1)
Over/under: 6 (O +125/U -145)
FPI projection: 6-10
2018 record: 7-9
Playoff odds: Yes +550, No -800
Redskins under 6 wins
Clay: The Redskins have a solid offensive line (assuming Trent Williams returns) and defensive front, but it's otherwise tough to find a position where they stand out. That includes the ultra-important quarterback position, in which new QB Case Keenum completed 62 percent of his passes (10th-worst) and posted a 6.6 yards per attempt (sixth-worst) in Denver last season. If Keenum doesn't work out, the likes of Colt McCoy and rookie Dwayne Haskinswill get the call. The Washington defense was top 10 in interceptions and sacks last season and, though the Redskins added Landon Collins, they also lost Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Preston Smith and Zach Brown. Expect the Redskins to join the division-rival Giants near the top of the 2020 NFL draft order.
Redskins under 6 wins
Youmans: Nothing that happened in August pointed to the Redskins as a playoff threat. A preseason QB competition is seldom a positive sign, and if Haskins is starting early in the season, Washington will be a lost cause. Haskins isn't ready, but do the Redskins play him anyway or try to piece together a respectable record by playing Keenum and McCoy? It's a lose-lose situation for a dysfunctional organization.
The focus of coach Jay Gruden's offense will be running backs Derrius Guiceand Peterson. The quarterbacks are in a tough spot behind a bad line minus an elite left tackle in Williams, and with no big-play receivers. Collins does help a defense that will be the team's strength. Washington ranked 15th in scoring defense (22.4) last season when an injury to QB Alex Smith turned a 6-3 start into a 7-9 finish.
Four of the Redskins' first five games -- at Philadelphia, home against Dallas, Chicago and New England -- are against 2018 playoff teams, and the other game is against the Giants on the road. It should be rough sailing early and speculation will heat up about Gruden going down with the ship. Last season, 12 NFL teams finished with six or fewer wins. The rebuilding Redskins, not the Giants, will sink to the bottom of the NFC East.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Super Bowl odds: 9-1 (opened 12-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 12-4
Playoff odds: Yes -120, No +100
Bears under 9 wins
Klassen: Our projections have the Bears finishing last in the division. Granted, the NFC North is the tightest division in the NFL and a projected 7.9 wins would make the Bears the "best" fourth-place team, but that won't earn Chicago anything other than a dash of sympathy from analysts.
Fewer than nine wins and a last-place finish seems outlandish for a team that smashed the division with a 12-4 record just last season, but it took a lot of things going the Bears' way for them to have the success they did. For one, Chicago's outstanding defense is expected to regress a bit. Not only is defense less stable year over year than offense is, but the Bears led the league in ending 19.1 percent of their defensive drives with turnovers, which should not be expected to hold. Chicago also had the third-fewest adjusted games lost due to injury -- a bit of good fortune that is likely to swing back the other way this season. Considering their poor and/or unproven depth at outside linebacker, cornerback and wide receiver, the last thing a Bears team already set for regression needs is a long injury list.
The Bears' schedule is significantly tougher this season, too. In 2018, Chicago finished with the second-easiest schedule per DVOA, ahead of only the Colts. Its projected 2019 schedule is the fifth-hardest in the league. The Bears' saving grace will have to be a massive season from Mitchell Trubisky and the offense. Good luck to you if that's the quarterback you want to put your money on.
Detroit Lions
Super Bowl odds: 75-1 (opened 125-1)
Over/under: 6.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection: 7-9
2018 record: 6-10
Playoff odds: Yes +320, No -400
Lions win NFC North (7-1)
Clay: Nearly every season there is a team that goes from worst to first in its division. In 2019, the competitiveness of the NFC North could allow the Lions to be the team that makes the surprising leap. Detroit made some significant offseason improvements: adding Trey Flowers to a stagnant pass rush, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin to a weak cornerback group behind Darius Slayand rookie T.J. Hockenson, and Jesse James to a tight end room that had been a nonfactor. Detroit has a solid quarterback in Matthew Stafford and comes in around league average in both offensive and defensive talent on paper. That's enough to keep the Lions competitive and it makes them an intriguing bet at 7-1.
Lions win NFC North (7-1)
Klassen: The Bears (+190), Packers (+200) and Vikings (+200) all have virtually the same chance to win the division, but Football Outsiders' projections have the Lions winning the NFC North in 25.5 percent of simulations, trailing only the Packers.
The Lions' roster might not be sexy at first glance, but it's filled out far better than it was a year ago. Tight ends James and Hockenson are an incalculable upgrade over Levine Toilolo, while Danny Amendola should fill in nicely in the short-area receiver role that was vacated when Golden Tate was traded midseason. Detroit was the fifth-worst short passing offense in the league per DVOA, and the front office made it its mission to fix that.
It would be a stretch to say the Lions should be expected to win the NFC North title, but their DVOA projections and favorable schedule give them as good a chance as anyone in a tight division. With its betting odds being significantly lower than the other three teams, Detroit is an easy value call.
Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl odds: 18-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -125/U +105)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 6-9-1
Playoff odds: Yes -110, No -110
Packers miss the playoffs
Youmans: It's never easy to bet against Aaron Rodgers, but his durability is a concern and an injury to Rodgers would sink the Packers' season. Rodgers was outstanding last season, passing for 25 touchdowns with two interceptions. The result? A 6-9-1 finish for Green Bay. The Packers' personnel is not dramatically improved, and Rodgers appears less than thrilled about new coach Matt LaFleur, who called the plays as Tennessee's offensive coordinator last season. The result? The Titans ranked 25th in total offense and 27th in scoring. Pro-Packers bettors will argue Rodgers is playing with something to prove now that Mike McCarthy is history, and while that's probably true, LaFleur might not be an upgrade.
Green Bay's defense, which ranked 18th in the league last season, will miss Clay Matthews and looks to be the worst in the NFC North. This is a mediocre team with a great quarterback. If Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers can win nine games and contend for a playoff spot, but that's the best-case scenario.
Minnesota Vikings
Super Bowl odds: 20-1 (opened 18-1)
Over/under: 9 (O -125/U +105)
FPI projection: 9-7
2018 record: 8-7-1
Playoff odds: Yes +115, No -135
Vikings over 9 wins
Youmans: Kirk Cousins was overpaid with expectations that he could get the Vikings over the top last season. When everything fell apart, he became a convenient scapegoat. The veteran quarterback did not play well in the biggest games -- similar to his career in Washington -- but did complete 70.1 percent of his passes with 30 touchdowns to 10 interceptions and wasn't as bad as public perception. Now that the fan and media sizzle has fizzled, it's time to buy the Vikings.
In 2017, Minnesota was a 13-3 team with the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 PPG) in the NFL. Injuries had something to do with last season's decline. Mike Zimmer, the best head coach in the division, made smart changes in his staff that should pay off. Look for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to boost the rushing attack behind an improved line. Not to make excuses for Cousins, but a weak line, absent running game and poor offensive coordinator contributed to his failings in 2018. It's tricky to bet on Cousins to deliver, but give him a second chance, because this Minnesota team is built to win -- and should be much better in 2019.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 30-1)
Over/under: 8.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection: 8-8
2018 record: 7-9
Playoff odds: Yes +155, No -175
Falcons make the playoffs
[COLOR=#48494A][FONT=Georgia][B][B][B]Walder: According to our efficiency numbers (expected points added per play, with garbage time down-weighted), Atlanta had the seventh-best offense last season but the 31st defense. Offense is more stable year to year than defense in the NFL, so we'd expect more regression on the latter than the former -- a good thing for Atlanta. But we aren't just banking on regression; we're also banking on Deion Jones. The elite linebacker was out for most of last season, but the difference he makes is drastic. Opponents' expected points added per play dropped from .21 to minus-.05 from when