Why Are The Phillies Favorites Today?

[leetreaper]

This one is pretty straightforward. Like we're saying, public on Philly and it was enough to push it past +135. I have enough relative volume from my reports and sources. The one point raw forecast was adjusted downward a little as well. Once the threshold of volume was hit and nothing really changed, value was found. I think I could have waited and even picked up +140, but it'snot necessary, +135 was good enough.

Also, I can identify what I consider RLM caused by what I consider fairly sharp trades. Regardless of the trades, the slight RLM in some noteworthy corners exist.

That's one of the most straightforward ways the Fund works, but there are a few others, this game follows the above though.

Do you factor situation, motivation, home, rest OVER the RLM and public numbers??? into the contrarian ?

[Fingernail]

Do you factor situation, motivation, home, rest OVER the RLM and public numbers??? into the contrarian ?

Haha!

Great post, leetreaper!

[2daBank]

Phillies roll !!! More desperate team 2 win

Just don’t buy they want to win anymore than pirates.

[pavyracer]

Why? Usually when the home team has a much better record than the visiting team the books make them favorite.

[Fingernail]

Why? Usually when the home team has a much better record than the visiting team the books make them favorite.

WOW! Did I just read this correctly?

[KVB]

Do you factor situation, motivation, home, rest OVER the RLM and public numbers??? into the contrarian ?

Remember, it all starts with the raw forecast. That's like the ole stacking percentages forecast, of course home and away are resolved there, and there are adjustments for schedule that would account for rest and yes, the ""situation".

When it comes to motivation, anything I've done to work on motivation or perception of motivation doesn't really affect the output here. It's kind of a wash. Motivation and situation are hairy to quantify and I find that the work I do on motivation is better suited for that non predictive public gauge I often post in other sports. Even then it's more about the general perception of motivation in the marketplace.

That gauge has the Phillies winning 5-4. I don't do much with that gauge for the Contrarian Fund because I gather market info from multiple sources, sometimes by phone call, and that pretty much accounts for what I need when it comes to assessing the marketplace.

When we get to football it can be a different story and I combine that public gauge with that other "market info" that I collect.

But for the Contrarian Fund, it's a blend of that raw forecast and market info that generates the play. That's why it takes so long sometimes and I'm not hitting openers, there just isn't enough information for the Fund.

By waiting, it sometimes cost in price to get the info, but because we are leaning contrarian, often the line just gets better with time. We get both, really.

[KVB]

For what it's worth I have Philly winning outright, by percentages that equate to about a run in this situation..

What I mean here is that I have a win percentage and conversion to margin of victory resolved there. I almost always post the margin of victory, instead of giving my percentages. So when I say it adjust down, I mean that the win percentage gets better for the dog.

Sometimes the mareket gets better, sometimes it's frozen and value just comes by adjustment and not the changing the number.

History and tracking shows overwhelmingly that the instances in which the market stays frozen and we adjust into value are for more successful than when the dog just gets bigger and pushes into value.

I often refer to that as a line freeze and that it appears the market is taking a position. The Fund tends to side with the books when they appear to be taking a position.

For tonight's game the line didn't move huge here, but it certainly wasn't frozen.

[2daBank]

WOW! Did I just read this correctly?

It’s the kind of next level incite pavy offers year round!!

[Fingernail]

It’s the kind of next level incite pavy offers year round!

Haha!

Buccos down early...

I still think Keller is a gas can.

[leetreaper]

KVB and Banker, I dont judge your capping methods at all, I have my own, just wanted to compare, cheers.

[KVB]

KVB and Banker, I dont judge your capping methods at all, I have my own, just wanted to compare, cheers.

[mike tyson35]

Many guys get knockout, going against iron mike picks.

[KVB]

Phils on the beatdown tonight.

[Fingernail]

No spoiling tonight.

Congrats to all Philly and Over backers!

[jjgold]

Nails you need a shark??

[leetreaper]

Phils on the beatdown tonight.

No need for attaboys here, We are here to share info and beat bookies, lets get em tomorrow!

[2daBank]

Strikeout props might be interesting in this game. I never play those, just a thought.

Keller kid only got 12 outs and 8 of them by strikeout! As I said I’ve never really played these but I used to talk w a guy who had a ton of success w strikeout props. Seems like this kid has the ability to hit his number every time out if he can manage to make it thru enough batters before getting yanked! lol. I mean hell, only took 4 innings for him to get 8 tonight!!

I didn’t watch but seems he did ok until wheels fell off in 5th never getting a out. That kinda been Vasquez mo this year, looks solid then that one inning comes up and it gets ugly, clearly the manager is aware of it yanking him with huge lead and only 75 pitches thrown thru 5 innings, lol.

Good call LEE, you were all over it pal!!