Is the MLB sample size big enough to start pounding plays?

[Shute]

Usually wait till June
What are your observations thus far?

[Shute]

Usually takes around 50 games to get a feel for the totals and fades

[KVB]

You really only need about 4 good outings for a pitcher but I'd say one solid month of ball is it.

We crossed that point a couple of weeks ago.

[Shute]

So fade KC Baltimore and Miami every chance you can
Got it!
Thanks

[Shute]

These perpetual cellar dwellers are so far back through mid May they know the long grind of the season is ahead and just roll over

[KVB]

So fade KC Baltimore and Miami every chance you can
Got it!
Thanks

Uh, no, not exactly, but sort of.

All I'm saying is that it's time to start generating the relative performances. Things will change and teams will run streaks but, like you said, if you fade Miami all season long, you just might turn a profit.

You have to consider the pricing and potential pricing before continuing to fade.

Here's an example if you were betting the same unit on the teams each game...

So far this season, fading Baltimore every game which was +30 units and nearly 20% ROI last year, hasn't been so good at just better than +1 unit, depending on the line.

Did you know that fading the Dodgers every game last year made you nearly 10% ROI and +15 units?

You have to think about the numbers.

Fading the Red Sox, or Oakland last year would have cost you nearly 40 units, but fading them this year has you up 8 or 5 units, respectively.

It's not as clear cut as who is going to win and who is going to lose.

I'm going to see if I can put something meaningful into some tables here, I have a ton of research, including the performance through April and part of May to see if we have anything.

[pavyracer]

Pound the biggest chalk and the smallest dog everyday and you will get rich quickly.

[Shute]

Uh, no, not exactly, but sort of.

All I'm saying is that it's time to start generating the relative performances. Things will change and teams will run streaks but, like you said, if you fade Miami all season long, you just might turn a profit.

You have to consider the pricing and potential pricing before continuing to fade.

Here's an example if you were betting the same unit on the teams each game...

So far this season, fading Baltimore every game which was +30 units and nearly 20% ROI last year, hasn't been so good at just better than +1 unit, depending on the line.

Did you know that fading the Dodgers every game last year made you nearly 10% ROI and +15 units?

You have to think about the numbers.

Fading the Red Sox, or Oakland last year would have cost you nearly 40 units, but fading them this year has you up 8 or 5 units, respectively.

It's not as clear cut as who is going to win and who is going to lose.

I'm going to see if I can put something meaningful into some tables here, I have a ton of research, including the performance through April and part of May to see if we have anything.

I see where you are coming from
KVB you are a numbers guy
Thanks for input
In my opinion
Sometimes feel for the series or instincts are the way to go

[Big Bear]

Usually wait till June
What are your observations thus far?

It’s hard to feel really comfortable pounding an MLB game

Be very patient

Make sure the numbers and stats make sense

Never bet on a cold team or a team you think is due

Why????

Winning and losing are both contagious

[2daBank]

You really only need about 4 good outings for a pitcher but I'd say one solid month of ball is it.

We crossed that point a couple of weeks ago.

Most have numbers going back several years, we know plenty early about 85% of the players so more than enough to work w to fire right out the gates. No interest in waiting till some arbitrary day to start.

[Sam Odom]

began SOS already

[KVB]

began SOS already

Sammy knows. The season has officially begun.

[Big Bear]

Usually wait till June
What are your observations thus far?

June 1st


time to go to pound town

[kingdom]

great opps. but pound town is truly in august when so many teams have given up. but the fades you mentioned have already given up. just don't fade them when they face an opponent under .500.