Quarterbacks starting their 1st playoff game are 3-19-1 against the spread.....

[danwinkler]

I read this stat somewhere. Not sure if it is starting qb's making playoffs in the 1st season and the 1st game in playoff or just in general.

[gauchojake]

[Hman]

Wonder who the 3 winners are.

Kurt Warner??

[TheMoneyShot]

Tom Brady?

[jjgold]

What stats so how do you take them now

[Mr KLC]

Stat or no stat........Colts ML

[Shutup]

Tom Brady?

Push
New England won by 3 vs Oak

[Shutup]

Mariotta covered last year. They won SU on the road vs KC

[Chi_archie]

Wonder who the 3 winners are.

Kurt Warner??

I don't think the stat/trend would go back that far.

Prob in last 5-10 years

[Chi_archie]

Blake Bortles last year

[Shutup]

3-6 past 3 years along with this year. Bortles and Taylor both played first playoff game
AJ Mcarron(lost but covered)
Teddy Bridgewater(lost but covered)
Mariotta

[Chi_archie]

so we are only talking about rookies starting first game?

doesn't really apply to this weekend as there are no rookies starting


going back you have to look at guys Like big ben on that 15-1 team, Russell wilson and Joe Flacco as true rookies that might have covered a few spreads

[Shutup]

so we are only talking about rookies starting first game?

doesn't really apply to this weekend as there are no rookies starting


going back you have to look at guys Like big ben on that 15-1 team, Russell wilson and Joe Flacco as true rookies that might have covered a few spreads

I checked for first playoff game not rookie. Roethlisberger DID NOT cover his first playoff game. Tehy beat jets by 3. Believe they ere 7 or more point favorite. Wilson did cover his first game. Flacco did cover his first game

[LT Profits]

Since 2002, if you toss 6 games where first-time starting playoffs QBs opposed each other, the first time starters are 11-31-1 ATS.

The 3-19 ATS applies to first timers that were home favorites (like Mahomes this coming week)

[LT Profits]

so we are only talking about rookies starting first game?

doesn't really apply to this weekend as there are no rookies starting


going back you have to look at guys Like big ben on that 15-1 team, Russell wilson and Joe Flacco as true rookies that might have covered a few spreads

No it is QBs making first playoff start. They went 0-3 last week all as favorites (Watson, Jackson, Trubinsky) and now Mahomes qualifies this week.

[Shutup]

All the teams this year so far have been more defensive teams without a great offense. I think being a favorite without a great Qb against a really good QB is why these teams don't cover. Would be interesting to see how really good QBs as home favorites do. I believe Kurt Warner covered his first game at home Not sure . Can't find a line They won by 12. Assuming they covered but they were really good that year so not sure what the line would have been

[Hman]

This is what we're looking for.

Someone please copy & paste because I'm on cell and won't post properly.

https://www-actionnetwork-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-betting-tip-fade-quaterback-playoff-debut-mahomes-chiefs-colts-2019?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQECAFYAQ%3D%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.actionnetwork.com%2Fnfl%2Fnfl-betting-tip-fade-quaterback-playoff-debut-mahomes-chiefs-colts-2019

[LT Profits]

All the teams this year so far have been more defensive teams without a great offense. I think being a favorite without a great Qb against a really good QB is why these teams don't cover. Would be interesting to see how really good QBs as home favorites do. I believe Kurt Warner covered his first game at home Not sure . Can't find a line They won by 12. Assuming they covered but they were really good that year so not sure what the line would have been

Rams covered,they were -7.5 over Minnesota.

[Chi_archie]

On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes will make his NFL playoff debut when the Kansas City Chiefs (-5) host the Indianapolis Colts (4:35 p.m. ET, NBC). Mahomes is not the only quarterback to take his first postseason snaps this year, either.
The Houston Texans’ Deshaun Watson, Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Chicago Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky all started their first playoff game last weekend. It didn’t go well as each newbie lost and failed to cover.



Should bettors expect the Chiefs to struggle in Arrowhead in Mahomes’ first playoff appearance? To find out, we looked at every first-time playoff starter since 2002 when the league expanded to 32 teams and adopted the current postseason format.
In that time, 55 quarterbacks have made playoff debuts. Twelve of these QBs faced each other and have been excluded from our sample.

That leaves 43 first-time starters in games against an experienced playoff quarterback, which is the same scenario for Mahomes and the Chiefs this weekend. Mahomes’ opponent, Andrew Luck, will start his eighth playoff game.
As it turns out, the playoff flops by Watson, Jackson and Trubisky in the Wild Card round is nothing new. Since 2002, first-time starters in the playoffs have gone 13-30 straight up (SU) and 11-31-1 against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs.
All quarterbacks, whether they have home-field advantage or are favored by the betting market, have let gamblers down. Passers playing at home have gone 8-18 SU and 6-20 ATS, while chalk quarterbacks are 8-14 SU and 5-17 ATS.
Quarterbacks who are home favorites, like Mahomes, have gone 6-13 SU and 3-16 ATS.

History has not been kind to quarterbacks making their playoff debuts. Of course, Mahomes is not your typical newcomer.
He’s only the second player in NFL history to throw 50 touchdown passes and for more than 5,000 yards in the same season. Mahomes is also a -230 favorite to win the NFL MVP award.
Mahomes is not your classic first-time playoff starter, but he’ll have to overcome history to win and cover against the Colts.

How would you rate this article?


PASS

PUSH


PLAY

Follow John Ewing on Twitter
@johnewing

[rm18]

Blake Bortles last year

no the Jags did not cover won by 7 as 9 pt fav.

[shocka1212]

Stat or no stat........Colts ML

[House]

We shall soon see

[jtoler]

why anyone would touch the baby horses is beyond me

[Slipknot26]

why anyone would touch the baby horses is beyond me

That Colts OL is playing out of their minds . Unless Chiefs took time out to focus on the defense, which is yet to happen this season , think it's a close game .
KC is a tough place to play , Indy traveling everywhere of late .
Chiefs are going to have to blitz like hell or Luck will pick that defense apart .

[jtoler]

That Colts OL is playing out of their minds . Unless Chiefs took time out to focus on the defense, which is yet to happen this season , think it's a close game .
KC is a tough place to play , Indy traveling everywhere of late .
Chiefs are going to have to blitz like hell or Luck will pick that defense apart .

Im just joking around but if kc can get luck to throw beyond 5 or 6 yds I def. can see an int or 2

[House]

That Colts OL is playing out of their minds . Unless Chiefs took time out to focus on the defense, which is yet to happen this season , think it's a close game .
KC is a tough place to play , Indy traveling everywhere of late .
Chiefs are going to have to blitz like hell or Luck will pick that defense apart .

I'd like to see them be more aggressive and blitz more also but they don't have to with two top ten guys in sacks and pressures (Jones and Ford ) Ones up the middle and the other is off the edge ... and then you have Houston who also had 9 sacks and 3 QB strips

[House]

I'll have the chicken and watermelon

What the fuk is that about ? That shit ain't funny

[Hman]

*Since 2002, first-time starters in the playoffs have gone 13-30 straight up (SU) and 11-31-1 against the spread (ATS)

[gojetsgomoxies]

OP, thanks for posting......

i like this as i think it has a theoretical basis.. and looks like it's been such a FADE that any characterization of a first year playoff QB is a big loser.

mahomes is different, for sure...... but i'd still strongly play it.

[bettingman6]

I read this stat somewhere. Not sure if it is starting qb's making playoffs in the 1st season and the 1st game in playoff or just in general.

Can you provide a link to this stat? I think you’re making it up.