173 NHL Picks

[2daBank]

Winny has been such a strange team man. They can beat any other team 10-0 one night then lose to Ottawa 4-1 the next night.

Winny finishes as the NHL's 5th best scoring team but finishes the year 4-5-1 to cough up the Central to Nashville.

Stl finishes the year 8-1-1.

What's not to like? Vegas has your boys at -120 and that feels about right.

I wouldn't touch it personally, but the momentum is definitely with Stl.

Hope they win for you.

Honestly i was hoping we would get Nashville in 1st round. We match up well w them and obviously much easier travel. Pretty rare I have much hope w the blues, I’m typically the guy ripping on my friends for believing in them the years they finish way high up in standings and are believed to have a chance. This season seems different tho., lot of metrics point to them being one of best teams since January, and that not even accounting for Bennington who has posted incredible numbers. Just hope the playoff pressure isn’t too much for the rookie!

I just don’t follow the league close enough to know about jets and how we match up? Definately encouraging that they have home ice yet we favs to take series!! Blues have incredibly strong fan base/following that deserves some success!!

[stevek173]

Yeah you guys deserve it for sure, great fan base - about as good as ours (Flyers) but your team's ownership makes better decisions.

I'll be rooting for former Flyers Lavvy and Simmer but I hope you guys can do some damage.

Everyone on here wants some of Nashville, I see a few taking the Stars. Personally I think they're the 2nd best team in the NHL right now but hey man, who am I to say.

Also - Pittsburgh is finally healthy now.

Just saying.

[RudyRuetigger]

steve how are things bro?

hope all is well

best of luck this postseason

[stevek173]

They're ok.

Hope you're good as well Rudy. Working on a nice variety pack of Leinenkugal which is highly recommended, and grinding at Bovada which with all due respect to an excellent site is not recommended.

Nit central.

BOL to you as well.

[RudyRuetigger]

try nitrogen poker

[2daBank]

Yeah you guys deserve it for sure, great fan base - about as good as ours (Flyers) but your team's ownership makes better decisions.

I'll be rooting for former Flyers Lavvy and Simmer but I hope you guys can do some damage.

Everyone on here wants some of Nashville, I see a few taking the Stars. Personally I think they're the 2nd best team in the NHL right now but hey man, who am I to say.

Also - Pittsburgh is finally healthy now.

Just saying.

Well you more qualified to say than me!! Lol., only reason i would have liked Nashville in round 1 is cause we seem to have good success vs them and obviously much easier travel but suppose that works both ways.

Never seems like good idea to doubt the penguins!!

[stevek173]

Well you more qualified to say than me!! Lol., only reason i would have liked Nashville in round 1 is cause we seem to have good success vs them and obviously much easier travel but suppose that works both ways.

Never seems like good idea to doubt the penguins!!

Just can't wait for the show to start man.

Lightning with a 103 goal differential

[stevek173]

try nitrogen poker

See I like that at Bovada HUDs aren't a factor as everyone is anonymous because you know how I play man. I know you like tournaments a lot, I very rarely play them - pretty much only at SBR.

Would you say Nitrogen is a good room to play at if you are a low/mid level cash grinder?

I'll look into it.

In the meantime I am going back to playing live and considering what's left on Bovada $ to fuk around with when I'm bored man.

[RudyRuetigger]

as far as i know, you cant use a HUD at nitrogen

i guess ive never tried

you can???????

[stevek173]

I have no idea, I've literally never looked into them.

For now I am going to try to clear this Bovada bonus and play live, Then mom is going to make me clean my room or I'm grounded (and no meatloaf), then I'll give them a look.

[eaglesfan371]

as far as i know, you cant use a HUD at nitrogen

i guess ive never tried

you can???????

Nitrogen poker you cannot grind. Not enough games. However, on weekend nights you usually can find a very juice game where eveyone buys in for $50-$150 in PLO.

Can't tell you how many times I've 2-4x my buyin in that nitro PLO. Def up 10-20 buyins in that PLO game. Otherwise not worth it though. Lot of bumhunters.

[2daBank]

Just can't wait for the show to start man.

Lightning with a 103 goal differential

Yea I’m pretty jacked up. Not much into regular season but very little tops playoff hockey, so intense!!

[eaglesfan371]

Can my blues beat jets? I know blues been playing incredible hockey but don’t know much bout Winnipeg, I’ve heard they were one the favs to win it all early in the season but havnt really played up to those expectations. Not only have blues been playing really good hockey but they also have one of the hottest goaltenders going right now!!

I really think STL beat the jets, however Jets have home advantage. There is no reason STL is -125 series fav here. Win is a good team, they aren't the avalanche. Line should be -110/-110 or -115 STL with Jets having home advantage.

Frustrating because I wanted to bet STL series line but cannot at that price. Good luck steve, will likely be on Islanders for the series.

[stevek173]

Nitrogen poker you cannot grind. Not enough games.

Tyvm, I was actually just reading exactly this on a review. Still a good look by Rudy - he's an aggro tourney player unlike myself so I get why he gets on nice runs there.

I'll consider Nitro a good weekend low stakes weekend PLO outlet when/if there comes a time for that.

Good luck to you as well man.

[eaglesfan371]

Tyvm, I was actually just reading exactly this on a review. Still a good look by Rudy - he's an aggro tourney player unlike myself so I get why he gets on nice runs there.

I'll consider Nitro a good low stakes PLO outlet when/if there comes a time for that.

The sunday tournament is good. Think its every sunday or every other. 0.025 btc which is $125 today. 0.50 BTC guarantee. I have entered that 4 times, came in 1st out 24 and 4th of 21 I believe, great cashes. Was $125 to $1500 and then $500 I believe (was a year ago).

[stevek173]

Interesting for sure. I always appreciate it man, if anything if I don't use something, some local players I talk to like tournies more than I do so it could be of use to them.

Two things about Bovada -

Zone poker (as I mentioned in Sweep's thread) and the little 3 man jackpot sit and go's = poker crack. Very fun.

[eaglesfan371]

Interesting for sure. I always appreciate man, if anything if I don't use something, some local players I talk to like tournies more than I do so it could be of use to them.

Yeah, its not pro infested, sure there are regs, but they aren't bots/experts like Betonline/Bovada. No problem man, hope you crush the tables.

[2daBank]

I really think STL beat the jets, however Jets have home advantage. There is no reason STL is -125 series fav here. Win is a good team, they aren't the avalanche. Line should be -110/-110 or -115 STL with Jets having home advantage.

Frustrating because I wanted to bet STL series line but cannot at that price.

I’m far from a hockey expert so maybe I’m wrong but honestly I don’t feel like home ice means all that much in the playoffs. One my favorite strategies in nhl playoffs is to chase road dogs for a win in series I feel are tight. If road team gets game 1 I typically back off or switch to home team, if they lose gm 1 then I’ll double up game 2. Then basically do same for gm 3 and 4. Kinda amazing how well I have done lot of nhl playoffs knowing next to nothing about the teams! Lol. I play the series not the teams., once it gets to gm 5 sometimes I think I have a feel but lot of times I’m done at that point. Imo gm 7 the only time home ice becomes a factor.

[eaglesfan371]

I’m far from a hockey expert so maybe I’m wrong but honestly I don’t feel like home ice means all that much in the playoffs. One my favorite strategies in nhl playoffs is to chase road dogs for a win in series I feel are tight. If road team gets game 1 I typically back off or switch to home team, if they lose gm 1 then I’ll double up game 2. Then basically do same for gm 3 and 4. Kinda amazing how well I have done lot of nhl playoffs knowing next to nothing about the teams! Lol. I play the series not the teams., once it gets to gm 5 sometimes I think I have a feel but lot of times I’m done at that point. Imo gm 7 the only time home ice becomes a factor.

Take a look at http://sagarin.com/sports/nhlsend.htm

I don't follow his recommendations but do take them into account when guessing a line. His analytics show ratings for each team at a neutral venue. When you match two teams, add 0.29 to the home team rating. You can see home has a major advantage for most games and NHL in general. #4 team becomes even/even away at #12 or so.

Home advantage is worth 20-30 cents on a series line imo.

[2daBank]

Take a look at http://sagarin.com/sports/nhlsend.htm

I don't follow his recommendations but do take them into account when guessing a line. His analytics show ratings for each team at a neutral venue. When you match two teams, add 0.29 to the home team rating. You can see home has a major advantage for most games and NHL in general. #4 team becomes even/even away at #12 or so.

Home advantage is worth 20-30 cents on a series line imo.

Not sure how this gonna show up but found this article from a few year back basically summing up how I feel about home ice in the playoffs.


HOME TEAMS IN REG. SEASON HOME TEAMS IN PLAYOFFS
LEAGUE WIN PERCENT BOOST* WIN PERCENT BOOST PLAYOFF DIFF.
NFL 57.1% +7.0 64.7% +11.8 +4.8
NBA 59.9 +9.8 64.5 +13.9 +4.1
MLB 54.0 +4.0 54.2 +4.0 +0.0
NHL 55.1 +5.1 55.3 +4.8 -0.3
What’s home-field/court/ice worth in the postseason?
Percentage point change from home team’s expected win percentage at a neutral location. In the playoffs, better teams are awarded more home games, so expected home win percentage is higher than 50 percent.

SOURCE: SPORTS-REFERENCE.COM

The NBA and NFL have the biggest regular-season home advantages, improving a team’s chance of winning by 10 and 7 percentage points, respectively. And those benefits grow even larger in the playoffs, ballooning to as high as 14 percentage points for NBA teams. NFL home teams gain almost 5 extra points of win probability in the playoffs — again, after controlling for the fact that better teams tend to get more postseason home games.

In baseball and hockey, on the other hand, playing at home doesn’t get you nearly as much help. MLB teams win about 54 percent of home games whether it’s the postseason or not (so much for last licks!), and while NHL teams do a bit better at home in the regular season (55 percent), they actually see their advantage decrease slightly in the playoffs.


In general, home advantage is a subject that deserves more research, simply because we’re still not entirely sure what combination of factors actually cause it. Some, like crowd noise, are obvious, while others are written into the sport’s rules (home hockey teams have the right to make the final line change before the puck drops, giving them a consistent edge in matchups). Other phenomena, like the home team getting preferential treatment by officials, still need further study. But numbers like the ones in the table above show that each sport brings its own weird nuggets to the overall topic of home-field/court/ice.

Either way, after their loss Tuesday night, maybe the Rangers and their fans will take solace in being the latest case study for a fascinating natural experiment. (Probably not)

[2daBank]

I’m sure other things can be found disagreeing w my feelings on the matter but just for myself I’ve found that 20-30 cents gives value to the road team cause I simply don’t think home ice gives that much of a advantage.

[eaglesfan371]

I’m sure other things can be found disagreeing w my feelings on the matter but just for myself I’ve found that 20-30 cents gives value to the road team cause I simply don’t think home ice gives that much of a advantage.

The more I think about it, I agree with you. 20-30 cents is too much. Maybe 10-15 cents? I feel like the NHL playoffs become more centered around defense as well. Those with a top goalie, usually sub 2.5 GAA, often do pretty well. I would be curious to run an analysis on previous data for over/under results during playoffs.

Next time I see LT make an NHL bet I'll have him what he considers the advantage to be for home series. I've already asked him several questions lately so don't want to bug him anymore haha.

[2daBank]

The more I think about it, I agree with you. 20-30 cents is too much. Maybe 10-15 cents? I feel like the NHL playoffs become more centered around defense as well. Those with a top goalie, usually sub 2.5 GAA, often do pretty well. I would be curious to run an analysis on previous data for over/under results during playoffs.

Next time I see LT make an NHL bet I'll have him what he considers the advantage to be for home series. I've already asked him several questions lately so don't want to bug him anymore haha.

Lol. He doesn’t mind. He respects what this site supposed to be about which sharing thoughts/ideals on this thing we do!

Hot goalies basically win cups! Which probably a big reason home ice isn’t that huge of a deal, when a goalie got that mojo working he stands on his head in any venue!!!

[stevek173]

4.16

Jackets +115
Isles +145

Sh*t is crazy man

[Hman]

GL tonight

[stevek173]

Thanks H!

[jjgold]

go get em

[stevek173]

Thanks Coach!

[Jayvegas420]

Stevie pulling for the

[stevek173]

If ya can't beat em, join em.

Isles and Jackets look far better than Pit or TB, well beyond the scores.

[Jayvegas420]

They certainly do, lightning biggest disappointment of the Year. Serious question Stevie, have you ever considered learning to play a Tragically Hip song? I think your playing style is more suited to Wheat Kings or Fiddler's Green

[stevek173]

No but I could check it out man, could be cool. Haven't listened to any of those bands.

[Jayvegas420]

Just one band....kinda a big deal here in my small town.

Are you still playing acoustic?

[stevek173]

I will check out that band, sounds cool.

I haven't been man. I have been busy recruiting, playing poker and posting.

It's a very demanding lifestyle and the groupies that come with it take up a lot of time and energy.

[stevek173]

Alright, we pick up the sweep as TB and Pit go down, amazing.

We did lose our Pit future. Not placing another future on the cup winner, want Nashville to win but have no idea who will do it. Just will enjoy the show.

4.17

Calgary -115
Bruins EVEN

Run good Gentlemen.