Why are the Grizzlies only a 4 pt favorite tonight at home against the Heat?

[Debacleov]

Memphis is a good team. 16-11 overall and 9-4 at home. The Heat on the other hand beat their meat. 11-16 and 5-9 away from home. Also they are all banged up and injured. What are we missing here? Line opened at 5 and dropped to 4.

Looks like Grizzlies ML tonight might be great value.

[danshan11]

I personally have the Grizzlies -5.5

[thomorino]

Memphis is dealing with injuries and the Heat have looked good when Dragic plays

[Ratpack]

under a better play

[Debacleov]

Heat are more banged up than the Grizz, Dragic is out tonight

[Debacleov]

I do like the under tonight a lot

[KVB]

My stacking percentages forecast shows Memphis winning by 5 while the non-predictive public gauge shows Memphis winning by 6.

Maybe 4 is a little low, that gauge is a measure of public perception and this thread exists.

One thing I can tell you, by tip off there will be more money and more bets in the marketplace on Memphis.

The books knew what they are doing when they ticked down the opener.

Good Luck Debacle!

[JIBBBY]

Griz line is mysteriously skinny.. Looks like a trap..

In on the Grizz at home anyways.. Looks very good to me on paper.. Gotta try it despite the fishy nature of it all...

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/miami-heat-memphis-grizzlies-2018121429/

[jjgold]

I do not see any official injuries listed for Memphis

seems like everyone playing

[Debacleov]

Under is dropping

I think the under is the play here

[thomorino]

Whiteside is expected back and Gasol is beat up even though he's likely to play

[ELNATURAL]

Miami got absolutely destroyed against Utah last game. From start to finish. Curb stomped.

[KVB]

Miami got absolutely destroyed against Utah last game. From start to finish. Curb stomped.

If Miami was at home, that desire to bounce back will weigh more in the market than the road game, based on my figures, but still in good point to bring up about Miami.

Under conventional wisdom, Miami looks bad and should be abandoned, all the more reason for the line to drift upward.

I see Pinny offering even money for the -4.

The books most certainly happy to take bets on the favorite today. A move down would be a bit of RLM and the only "sharp" bets that we've identified in the marketplace were placed on Miami earlier this morning.

[landP7]

Heat 5 game in a week on the road. Difficult to understand this line.

[bjb7223]

I've watched all Memphis games, they're back to grit and grind. They win a lot of games, but by small margins. Very good defensively. They don't blow away teams, If they get down by 20 points, they're done. -4 sounds accurate.

[KVB]

Mike Conley listed as probable for Memphis but he's been "sore" so maybe they have limiting plans for him tonight.

Maybe he sits.

[KVB]

Pinny down to 3.5.

[jjgold]

Strange

Trap???

[KVB]

Under is dropping

I think the under is the play here

I picked up UNDER 196.

[gauchojake]

Heat ML

[KVB]

Heat ML

Fukking around tonight.

Tailing you.



Hopefully she's not playing the air violin for us losers at the end of the game...

[gauchojake]

small play

let's get it KVB

sorry debacle we have to do this

[Debacleov]

Go for it I dont even have the Grizz I took the under

[QuantumLeap]

Pinny down to 3.5.

I've heard the "Pinnacle Lean" isn't valid anymore. Makes me wonder sometimes.

[MinnesotaFats]

What the linesmakers saw here idk

This was bizzare but they begged you to take MPH and we did. I at least waited till half to go mess up my night

[pilebuck13]

Sick beat on the under

[JIBBBY]

Classic trap bet as it looks to be good on paper so you load up and play on the ML.. JJ and myself sniffed it out as a possible TRAP play... I held back as that word TRAP sounded out loud and clear with this one..

I still bet it and lost. Didn't load up though.. It's gotta be a really special occasion for that.. Grind continues... Live and learn gents.. Ugghhh...


Gotta come clean with the good and the bad..

$180.00

$102.90

Loss

12/14/18 8:05pm NBA Basketball 578 Memphis Grizzlies -175* vs Miami Heat

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/miami-heat-memphis-grizzlies-2018121429/

[QuantumLeap]

Sick beat on the under

Ouch!

1.5		Marc Gasol makes three point jumper (Shelvin Mack assists)	100 - 97
0.0		End of the 4th Quarter	100 - 97
0.0		End of Game	100 - 97

[bjb7223]

Sick beat on the under

14 points in the last 45 seconds.

[QuantumLeap]

Thanks for posting guys. I didn't have the courage to make a bet at the start of the game but when I saw the Heat had a chance to cover I took them at the half.

[jjgold]

Good observations here

Trap and some fell for it

[Debacleov]

I won on the under because I bought 2 points. Unreal.

[Debacleov]

Internet / -1

Ticket #: 8546564 Dec 14 07:10 PM Dec 14 07:40 PM Dec 14 08:10 PM

NBA NBA NBA

PARLAY (3 TEAMS) [568] BOSTON CELTICS -1200 [571] MILWAUKEE BUCKS -700 [578] TOTAL u198-150 (B+2) (MIAMI HEAT vrs MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES)

384 / 408

408

WIN WIN WIN WIN

12/14/2018 05:24 PM

[thomorino]

Backing NBA team that lose by 30 or more is a good angle in the NBA

[kingdom]

I won on the under because I bought 2 points. Unreal.

first the you bet the chiefs. but didn't. now you bet the under. but bought 2 points. unreal. there is always a new clown. i guess this time its you. or maybe you are a recycled one.