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Picked up Long Beach St, Louisville, and St Mary's.
I forecast these games to be close to the spreads, enough to buy, but on top of that my information is showing for each of these games a significant difference between the public betting information and the money being bet on them.
It's early yet today and more volume will come in, but these games seem to show a trend today where the bigger money is in disagreement with the public. Expect some RLM type movement here.
That's not reason to buy alone, but it adds to my handicapping work, adding some confidence in the plays.
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Kenpom all ya need baby, well worth the 20 a year!! I’d pay way more but don’t tell mr pomeroy that!!! Lmao.. shhhhhhhh. His scores not all that important to me although he typically has them very close to the opening line so gives ya a good idea where it gonna open!! His pace numbers and efficiency stats are incredible and love the way they formatted. I could prob use 5-6 other sites and get everything but why bother when ya get them all in one handy layout for minimal yearly fee!!!! Only handicapping tool I pay for l!!’Comment -
I think there is something up market wise in the Utah Vallet/LBST game.
I realize it's early season, but it is what it is and for what is worth no matter how you try cap thegame you tend to come up with Utah St winning with anywhere from 4 points to 15 points.
But heavy money flying in on LBST in the face of the public tickets. Word seems to be out and now the tickets are hitting LBST.
This line should drop even more and it's only the result of public numbers and stats being used that is keeping Utah Valley favored.
It seems the book is taking a position here, and it's one that sides with those numbers. As they like to say..."the book knows something."
They like Utah Valley, even though some sharp bettors have chosen LBST.
Not completely actionable info, but some added analysis nonetheless.
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I hope everyone figured this out and jumped on those 4???!!!.. one down which was super easy cash w sooners/Gators!!! Stanford in game!! 2 more later!!! Didn’t even look at any number or attempt to cap, barely even knew who all the teams were!! Best case scenario is we get jump shooting teams, even better when they high scoring teams and we get high totals. Ultimately it don’t matter, if ya’ll got to watch yet you know what I’m talking bout, if not I suggest you take a look. Shit is played in some type of banquet hall, the backdrop is redic, the lighting is terrible, nothing about this venue is beneficial to a shooter!!! Never has been and never will be!!! Depth perception is a nightmare im sure!! Eventually guys get little better and start shooting less but this 1st round I been pounding under for years!! I usually cap a little but we didn’t have the time here and for real it don’t matter in normal sense. What you actually wanna look for is teams that take a lot of jumpers, don’t even care if they good shooters or not. Want to avoid games with teams who go to the rack a lot.. the one thing we gotta be weary of is missed jumpers leading to lot of run outs so like to avoid teams who crash offensive boards as that obviously leads to opposing team getting more fast break chances..., ok that far as we diving into for now, I have some crash course capping to do so we can make more money this evening!!!Comment -
Well I think this secret has to be getting out. Surely if I was smart enough to figure this out years ago there were plenty of others.. plus I got a big mouth, been sharing this angle w my sbr friends for last few years!!
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Tennessee -7.. I been a big buyer in vols under Rick Barnes, he has this squad playing some grown man ass defense. Chis Mack will prob get there with ville as well but he in year one while barns has this thing established and ready to make some noise. Nichols st and Vermont have both gotten into the 70s vs vile at home, if vols approach 80 this game lights out as I think they keep ville down in high 60s..Comment -
Puke/zags over 167.. half unit, I hate missing the good number and luckily that caused me to pass on the auburn game. I just don’t see this game anywhere close to the same. Imo it gonna take 90 to win this without question. Zags really playing at sick pace this year and can’t imagine that gomma hurt pukes feelings. As long As this game competitive it flies over. Hawaii pretty much opposite of that nightmare gym in the other tourney we playing unders, nice soft rims here.Comment -
Took Lousiville +8 here. I was expecting a that line to drop, a little RLM, so you have a good reaction line here.
I forecast Louisville to win by 8 points, while that non predictive public gauge shows Tenn by 4.
I feel like that line is too high and I can see why money has hit the dog. Thing is, it's so early in the season that any of hose numbers are only so valid.
I think, in order of probability, the game is either close to the spread, a Louisville upset, or a Tenn blowout.
See if Tenn can surprise, they might have a good team this year.
Rick Barnes seems solid.
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Vols are top 10 imho.. what worries me is Mack a very good coach as well so while normally I’d expect Ville to be overwhelmed by vols ruggedness might not be the case under Mack. I still can’t ignore the point totals lessor teams have hung vs ville, I’m incredubky confident Ville struggles mightily to hit 70, just gonna depend on whether they can hold vols into the low-mid 70s which I’m not so sure of considering the teams who have achieved that total vs them.. I prob would have passed at the opening number, I made vols 10ish so wasn’t lot of perceived value for me till it got bet to -7.,at least one of us cash!! Better yet you can push and I can cash w a vols 76 cardinals 68 final!!!Took Lousiville +8 here. I was expecting a that line to drop, a little RLM, so you have a good reaction line here.
I forecast Louisville to win by 8 points, while that non predictive public gauge shows Tenn by 4.
I feel like that line is too high and I can see why money has hit the dog. Thing is, it's so early in the season that any of hose numbers are only so valid.
I think, in order of probability, the game is either close to the spread, a Louisville upset, or a Tenn blowout.
See if Tenn can surprise, they might have a good team this year.
Rick Barnes seems solid.
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Duke won't win them all, and a team like the Zags could get them.
Duke has been hyped, and that line is sort of low for that hype.
This could a competitive game alright and agree that will send it Over.
Will be exciting to see if we could get OVER time.
Gonna be a good early season matchup, if not, Duke is going to show they are the cream of the crop by a mile.
Either way, it's going to take some points to happen.
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Yea I’m bummed it early. I promised my mom I’d help her deliver some thanksgiving meals to some her patients (I need the community service anyways! Lol. Of course she give to me without but like to help folks sometimes!), she a hospice Chaplin and bought few of her less fortunate (well they all unfortunate being on hospice but money wise) clients thanksgiving meals from Cracker Barrel for their families to enjoy 2marro (despite what some think of me I’m kinda a good dude!! Lol)..Duke won't win them all, and a team like the Zags could get them.
Duke has been hyped, and that line is sort of low for that hype.
This could a competitive game alright and agree that will send it Over.
Will be exciting to see if we could get OVER time.
Gonna be a good early season matchup, if not, Duke is going to show they are the cream of the crop by a mile.
Either way, it's going to take some points to happen.
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I like the Tenn. play but I’m on the under in the Duke game despite it moving. Got it at under 169.
The rims are friendly in Maui and I’ve been doing well with the overs in that tourney but this is just a gut play. I feel like Zags will play defense and value each possession more so I’m thinking the tempo will be a little bit slower.
Gl. Love these holiday tourneysComment -
Minnesota ev.. forget the 1 point, take the ml so no juice.. this one pretty simple and comes down to one word (REBOUNDING!). Both good on the offensive boards, but only one of them does their job cleaning up the defensive glass, guess which?!?! Just go look at both teams like opponents in this tourney, gophers dominating glass on both ends while huskies giving up lot of offensive boards to lessor rebounding teams.Comment -
Clemson-4.5.. we saw what happened to creighton when they faced a hard nosed defensive squad when osu went into their house and pretty much lead wire to wire. Tigers a better offensive squad imo and play that same hard nosed defense osu brought to hold jays arpuns 60. Jays just strike me as a team that much better in a up tempo more free flowing offensive gm. Tigers don’t let anyone’s offense flow freely!!Comment -
Agree on Minny. Especially considering Washington isn't shooting particularly well so far this year.. Minny boards gonna be huge.Comment -
over lookin decent, tailed ya on that bank, a big duke comeback will help in the secondComment -
Minny is +1.5 nowComment -
Second half total line says we should be in good shape here.Comment -
Uc Irvine -2.5... we on day 3 in a row and we get the deeper more experienced squad that most importantly doesn’t rely on jump shots to score. Toledo has been shooting lights out this tourney but when you get to days 3 or 4 in a row the 1st thing that goes is your jump shot. To make matters better for us the anteaters have been playing fantastic perimeter degense all season which a continuance of last year where they were 42nd in nation in 3 point fg percentage against. Thus far they holding opponents 2% lower than that right around 30% and looking back they have basically held everyone they have faced below their season marks., everything points to the anteaters continuing their impressive season!Comment
