I think I can win long-term.

[Hot Jerry]

Jerry where you moving too??

Dont know yet JJ , but be totally honest I would miss Las Vegas too much IF I move !

[Hot Jerry]

Hot Jerry, you have been betting more years than my age.

LOL - LOL - well there u have it !

[danshan11]

LOL - LOL - make ur self some money first my friend and then u will not need me [ lol ] , the sport is giving away money .

I hope to get a few bucks someday, thanks for the advice and the comments, best of luck!

[jjgold]

chasing the dream is ok but we all went broke trying

[Hot Jerry]

chasing the dream is ok but we all went broke trying

JJ u know all the rules for betting sport successfully. I dont have to teach u anything . JJ , 10 games every day ?? Come on my friend , thats not how u make money , u know better than that !!!!!!!!!! U know I respect ur opinion and ur not bad picker but , there are days that u just WNT whole day !!

[Hot Jerry]

I hope to get a few bucks someday, thanks for the advice and the comments, best of luck!

Thank you , best of luck to u as well my friend .

[Hot Jerry]

In my humble opinion 10 + games betting every day is recipe for disaster JJ .

[Hot Jerry]

LOL - LOL - JJ , 10 + games a day would break Bill Gates !!

[clockwise1965]

300 matches a month. How can you adequately handicap that many games? Let us know how you do?

[danshan11]

if you get say 15 games I might get one or two sides and 1 or 2 totals , that is out of 15 games, average 2 bets out of 15 games

[Sawyer]

what is value betting?

Boston is +100 in Pinnacle. You get Boston +130 in a softbook. This is a value bet. Picking a bet which has more advantage then market price. Not all books adjust lines fast like Pİnnacle, some books are slow to change lines.

When you bet value, you will win over long term. However, you must remember you may still have disastrous losing streaks.

[September2029]

chasing the dream is ok but we all went broke trying

If you bet with 1% (i'll be betting with 2% till I hit a 15k€ bankroll), have discipline by not betting more than that and don't get mad after a losing streak because is just variance, You'll be living the dream, and I'm going live it.

[September2029]

In my humble opinion 10 + games betting every day is recipe for disaster JJ .

I can bet more sometimes, its depends. On Saturdays and Sundays 20+ matches/day.

[September2029]

300 matches a month. How can you adequately handicap that many games? Let us know how you do?

I just only bet in-play football (or soccer if you're from US), over goals and corners, average odds after 300 matches/monthly odds should be 2.1 (+110) and goal is 50% winrate and by maintaing that WR long term I can profit 15 u/month, anything over 50% is better.

[danshan11]

i think you are very far from betting reality. your projected numbers dont even add up. I think you need to get a grip on CLV and implied probability, prop limits, account limit reductions on props, account closures, variance, and probably a few more areas. You sound like you might understand ROI and Units and to be honest those are the only two things you dont need or matter.

Anyway best of luck and if there is anyway I can help you let me know!

[danshan11]

Boston is +100 in Pinnacle. You get Boston +130 in a softbook. This is a value bet. Picking a bet which has more advantage then market price. Not all books adjust lines fast like Pİnnacle, some books are slow to change lines.

When you bet value, you will win over long term. However, you must remember you may still have disastrous losing streaks.

so betting stale lines

[September2029]

i think you are very far from betting reality. your projected numbers dont even add up. I think you need to get a grip on CLV and implied probability, prop limits, account limit reductions on props, account closures, variance, and probably a few more areas. You sound like you might understand ROI and Units and to be honest those are the only two things you dont need or matter.

Anyway best of luck and if there is anyway I can help you let me know!

How can I make my accounts last longer? I'll start with just 100€ bankroll and if everything goes as I plan they see I can beat them in the long term and they'll limit/close my accounts before I can even build a real bankroll and make real money.

[danshan11]

I think I would not be too concerned about your accounts getting closed or limited at this point.

do you really have an edge, Are you betting lines at +110 that are -110 at pinnacle?

[danshan11]

most people think an edge is when they bet 500 games at -110 and win 54% of them, they think that is an edge and that could be just variance (NOISE). One of the only ways we have to tell if you have an edge is CLV, on live betting CLV is very hard to verify but the reality is if Pinnacle ( or the sharpest book based on the sport) has +110 and you bet at +110 you eventually are paying the margin and have no edge.

[danshan11]

How can I make my accounts last longer? I'll start with just 100€ bankroll and if everything goes as I plan they see I can beat them in the long term and they'll limit/close my accounts before I can even build a real bankroll and make real money.

if you start out betting $100 dollars per bet, you with a 1% edge (which is very rare) can hope to earn $1 on that $100 bet, long term.

[September2029]

if you start out betting $100 dollars per bet, you with a 1% edge (which is very rare) can hope to earn $1 on that $100 bet, long term.

I'll start out betting 2€/bet lol..anyway according to google sheets where I kept a big sample of 1197 matches (including draw no bet) when I played on paper mostly, I would have earned 0.0578u on 1u bet. So if it is 100$ bet, its 5.78$ earned on that 100$ bet, long term.

[danshan11]

play with this and you will quickly see 1100 is just not even close to enough

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/

also 6% edge is unheard of and would make you the absolute best bettor in the history of sports betting!

[September2029]

play with this and you will quickly see 1100 is just not even close to enough

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/AdjustableSpinner/

also 6% edge is unheard of and would make you the absolute best bettor in the history of sports betting!

I think I can win long-term. I do not think I'll be one of the best sports bettors, just wanna make half million of it (not too much honestly 555 ) in around 10years if I start in January with an 100€ and not withdrawing a single penny till I build a 10k bankroll.

[danshan11]

the question again is how can you win long term? What is your edge? why do you have an edge?

[September2029]

How can I win long-term? By making 300 bets/month, only in-play, average odds 2.1min and winning 50% of them, brm discipline by not betting more than the plan, patience about moving up also not wondering, getting mad when have a losing streak or being super happy when have a winning streak, it will happen all the time.
Anything else doesn't matter imo

[danshan11]

one thing matters, do you have an edge? Hint 1100 past games in a Google sheet is not proof of an edge, its not even a hint of an edge

[September2029]

With an edge or not as long as I do the same thing and profit, I'm glad to repeat the same routine of 300matches/month for 120months.

[danshan11]

my friend, you cannot win without an edge. That is how we win~!

[September2029]

Time will show if I will make it as I think!

[September2029]

10 years after I expect to lose only my hair and be bald but not broke

[snapperman2]

You can do a z-test on your wins and losses and that will tell you if your winning is statistically significant or not. But I think that you are just a tout like JJ said.

[jjgold]

tout alert!!

MODS!!

[September2029]

What does a tout mean btw?

[danshan11]

tout is a bad person, they have bad breath, where gold chains in an open shirt, big sunglasses and have never fallen lower than 62% ATS. They usually have 5 or 6 instagram models and only fly private.

[danshan11]

Time will show if I will make it as I think!

TBH, time does not tell you anything unless you can get up to 5 to 10K bets in.

why do you have an edge? you still wont answer that question, you are mayweathering that question