WNBA Playoffs

[danshan11]

Good luck in the playoffs everyone

here are my lines and my power rankings for the playoffs, I hope it helps you win a couple!

Wings	177
Mercury	-3.5
Lynx	153
Sparks	-4

Sun	-7.11
Storm	-6.99
Mystics	-5.38
Sparks	-5.74
Mercury	-3.32
Dream	-3.73
Wings	-3.01
Lynx	-4.41
Aces	-0.78
Sky	3.34
Liberty	5.23
Fever	7.22

and of course any comments or questions post them up, as you know I am down to discuss anything sports betting.

[thomorino]

I think Phoenix will be 5.5, Taurasi plays at another level in elimination games and it looks like Phoenx has figured out how to play without Little. I'll be on Phoenix at anything less than 7.

[danshan11]

I average 1.93 off so I could see 5.5 easy sure but I think a good guess would be -2 to -4 range, but we shall see!!! tomorrow at about 1pm CT when BOL comes out what they got which is usually not too bad a number when they come out!

Maybe it opens around 3 and closes around 4.5 is my guess.

I would take Mercury if it was less than -2 and I would take the Wings if it was +5.5 or higher

[danshan11]

what do you think of my power ratings ????

[thomorino]

I agree with a lot of them - I think Seattle is the best team in the league by a wide margin though, the Sun are strong at home but I don't trust them on the road.

I understand why you have the Mercury so low because of how poorly they played when Taurasi was hurt and Little was out but I think they've figured stuff out and I think the veteran teams like the Mercury will be better in the playoffs with extra rest.

[danshan11]

I went back and looked at games lately with the Mercury and I have been pretty close on their games so I am feeling pretty confident on that -3ish number BUT you never know

[thomorino]

I'm not saying I disagree with the number for the regular season, I think Taurasi just plays at another level in the postseason and I think Phoenix's experience and postseason success counts for something - Dallas hasn't done anything in the postseason

[thomorino]

I have futures bets on Seattle at 20-1 - very small bet and Phoenix at 14-1, very small bet too. I am very happy it looks like they will not be meeting in the semifinals, I think the Mercury and Storm are the 2 best teams but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Sun beat the Mercuy at home in the quarterfinal game since they've been great at home all year.

[danshan11]

are you from Phoenix?

[thomorino]

Lol, no, I'm from Chicago, but I'm not a fan of any of the teams, I like basketball and I like betting the league

[danshan11]

I am from Phoenix well Paradise valley but same thing that is why I asked LOL. I dont know anything about the WNBA at all. I just model the numbers and bet them. I have no clue about any player besides the algo to analyze if they change the line at all. I use a very cool weighted system to analyze an injury on the line but anyway good luck and any comments or ?s are appreciated!

[danshan11]

I am so excited about the NBA season my NBA model last year won money and it is the same system I used in the WNBA and I destroyed the WNBA this year so I am so pumped for the NBA season to start and hope to kill it with some variance and deviation luck from the gods!

[thomorino]

I had a good year betting the WNBA, I do think that in the playoffs you will have to handicap differently than the regular season since the rest between games will really benefit older teams like Phoenix, LA, Minnsota.

[danshan11]

I dont cap games at all, I just run numbers and adjust for injuries!

[danshan11]

Kelly Hill and Davis out!

[danshan11]

Brunson is out!

[danshan11]

8/21	Dall	Wings	176
8/21	Phoe	Mercury	-5
8/21	Minn	Lynx	151
8/21	Los	Sparks	-7.5

with updated injuries no plays!

[danshan11]

Sparks	158
Mystics	-3
Mercury	175.5
Sun	-6.5

here are my lines for tomorrows game, good luck

[danshan11]

updated

Sparks	157.5
Mystics	-2.5
Mercury	176.5
Sun	-6

[JAKEPEAVY21]

interesting how your numbers have Conn and Seattle about even while oddsmakers have seattle as a massive favorite to win the championship.

[danshan11]

I think they are pretty comparable and my Seattle lines using those power rankings have been fairly accurate through out the season so it should be fairly close game line wise but overall in a series with the extra bye I would guess that would give them a big edge.
i

[danshan11]

I am gonna take the Sparks +5 -104, I got 2.5 so +5 is enough for me to bet it.