Contrarian Fund - Stocks and Sports

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As of now, nothing formal. Would like to think about contrarian investing.

Stocks or sports, I'm a big believer that against-the-grain thinking is the way to go.

For starters, I'm long on Ford (F) stock. Ford has a long history of issuing a Dividend. I realize that the news has been mostly bad and that the stock-price has been circling.

Not too far in the past, F traded in the 14 to 16 range. Now around 10. If F re-traces toward 12, would make for a nice trade (especially if u add in the Dividend).

Word of caution. I'm no better than an Average investor. I'm actually trending toward Index Funds, but I like to leave at least 5% of portfolio for speculative stocks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Have to post one comment in here:

* WTF is going on w/ Ford? Now trading at 9.46.

Talk about a nose-dive. Call me stubborn. This could be my contrarian play for 2nd half of 2018.

[KVB]

Wow Chucky, never saw this thread.

I'm putting contrarian MLB analysis all over the Forum, but you probably knew that.

Ford may be getting hit with two Russian issues.

One is exposure to Russia, the other is a recall of almost 4000 cars in Russia.

Not sure what else to give on this one, seems like there are better issues out there.

I am struggling, in the same way, with GE. Bough it at 14.70, it's at 12.36.

[KVB]

It can be tough to go against the Bull market when it is screaming, really have to pick spots to go contrarian.

Sometimes it's better to ride the wave for a bit and then jump off.

I need a woman 'bout twice my weight

A ton of fun who packs a gun with all her freight

Find her in a sideshow leave her in l.a.

Ride her like a surfer running on a tidal wave.

[MinnesotaFats]

I'd buy all the Ford you can right now

6% on that dividend

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'd buy all the Ford you can right now

6% on that dividend

Fats, I'm long on Ford as it is. I still allow myself to be speculative on 5% of my portfolio.

I plan on buying some more this week. I just don't see how it's not value right now.

All the talk is negative, so I'm in. And like u say, if we just are even to Yr-end we still (likely) see a sweet dividend.

[Sanity Check]

* WTF is going on w/ Ford? Now trading at 9.46.

Concerns over turkey infecting global economies with toxic asset contagion.

[packerd_00]

Ive got Polaris Stock,have held onto it for ten years know,been a sound investment.

[hankcream]

Chinese market in the shitter, might buy me some BABA soon under $170 today

[KVB]

It can be tough to just go contrarian in stocks for me.

I don't just look for institutions to get in, but I think the public wave helps the equities rise.

Getting stocks because they are low or selling just because they are high is dangerous.

Stock reaching highs tend to go higher and stocks reaching lows are down there for a reason.

We have to think about what to choose.

hank has a good point because over the next few days we may see some very good companies just get caught up in the selling, those can be buying opportunities for sure.

Sitting on mostly cash, deciding what to pop into next.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. What about contrarian sports-handicapping?

Do u have a list of cappers that you are willing to fade? I think there are two ways to approach this:

1) Fade a loud-mouth who has an incredibly poor track record.
2) Fade public% that is too hi.

[danshan11]

this betting game is easy just fade every single play I make your CLV will suck but you will win your ass off!

[KVB]

Bump. What about contrarian sports-handicapping?

Do u have a list of cappers that you are willing to fade? I think there are two ways to approach this:

1) Fade a loud-mouth who has an incredibly poor track record.
2) Fade public% that is too hi.

Not so easy Chucky.

You can not just fade ticket percents that could be consensus of any given group, they are not reliable numbers.

I have been running a MLB Contrarian Fund since the All Star break.

It uses strong discipline, measuring all sorts of factors from info out of Vegas and the online books to capping the games.

I often talk about leans early in the day and what it is I'm looking for for a play to develop, including looking for specific types of moves and money at specific places in the market.

Through 135 plays it's up over 6 units. It has been volatile, here is the recent record...

15-Aug	CHW/DET OVER 9 (+102)	1.02
	SEA/OAK UNDER 8.5 (-102)	0.98
	SEA +112	1.12
	PIT/MIN UNDER 8 (-102)	-1
	SF/LAD UNDER 8 (-122)	0.82
	KC +129	-1
	BAL +116	-1
	BOS/PHI UNDER 8.5 (+101)	-1
	PHI +102	1.02
	CIN +155	-1
	COL/HOU UNDER 7.5 (-119)	-1
	Wed	-1.04
	Week 1	3.64
	Week 2	4.73
	Week 3	-5.88
	Week 4	2.15
	Mon	-0.45
	Tue	3.05
	Total	6.2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I purchased some Ford (F) stock at 9.49. We'll see where I stand on 1/1/2019.

[KVB]

Good call Chucky.

It's not necessarily contrarian here, it's just low.

Schwab gives a B rating which means they expect it to outperform other companies within it's sector, specifically.

Good buy, decent dividend, but the time frame is uncertain.

Seems like this is a better play long term than for a discretionary 5% account.

Good Buy though, from what I can see and I just may tail you on this one.

[KVB]

Got some in the Total Return Fund.

Let's cash this fukker Chucky!!

Just Bought 500 shares F @ 9.5763.

[TheLock]

Bump. What about contrarian sports-handicapping?

Do u have a list of cappers that you are willing to fade? I think there are two ways to approach this:

1) Fade a loud-mouth who has an incredibly poor track record.
2) Fade public% that is too hi.

I was up 46 units in MLB 2017 (documented here at SBR) doing strictly contrarian.

But I’m down 9 units so far this year using the same criteria.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I was up 46 units in MLB 2017 (documented here at SBR) doing strictly contrarian.

But I’m down 9 units so far this year using the same criteria.

Lock, keep after it. I was trying to kick-start some ideas in this thread.

Sports-handicapping is very difficult. Contrarian betting sounds great in theory. Challenging to pull off in practice.

[KVB]

It's a race for information Chucky, and it is tough.

I am not only trying to get the information, but also trying to act on it, which includes considering my handicapping of the games, and then I'm trying to share the information with SBR.

That's a tough gig.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I purchased some Ford (F) stock at 9.49. We'll see where I stand on 1/1/2019.

Not saying I discovered plutonium. But we're > +3% in less than a week.

[KVB]

[chico2663]

Fats, I'm long on Ford as it is. I still allow myself to be speculative on 5% of my portfolio.

I plan on buying some more this week. I just don't see how it's not value right now.

All the talk is negative, so I'm in. And like u say, if we just are even to Yr-end we still (likely) see a sweet dividend.

I will inherit 1700 share of it. Mom started out with 1000 about 15 years ago

[chico2663]

also a shitload of star war toys from the 70's. She was offered 35,000 10 years ago but wouldn't let it go.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chico, keep the get-rich-quick schemes comin. If we put our minds together, we can figure it out.

[KVB]

Bump. What about contrarian sports-handicapping?

Do u have a list of cappers that you are willing to fade? I think there are two ways to approach this:

1) Fade a loud-mouth who has an incredibly poor track record.
2) Fade public% that is too hi.

There is so much more to successful contrarian betting, in my opinion, than the public percentages you see. There is money, there are line moves at books to track, you still have to handicap the games.

It's a wild and crazy ride. I have contrarian plays where public percentages might be even or favoring my play because of discrepancies that I see in both the money and my handicapping as well as activity at books.

There's a lot to pay attention to as plays develop and I am using historical data based on market activity to determine any adjustments I may need to make to my handicapped line.

It's crazy, but it seems to work.

[grease lightnin]

I'd buy all the Ford you can right now

6% on that dividend

4.5x earnings


Been unreal cheap for a while though.

[KVB]

I think we're looking a a potential trading range here with Ford. If that happens, I'm guessing there's accumulation until a move or news is made.

That would be good for us as I doubt it breaks out of a range to the low side, if there is a trading range, otherwise we're going up until there is one.

In my opinion.

[KVB]

Trump winning again. NAFTA news bumping auto makers, Ford is one of them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Full disclosure:

Might be taking a bath on this thing.


FORD MOTOR COM ---F
$9.280.15 (1.59%)