Can we set up a contest for worst bettor at SBR?

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 07:12 AM

Record 0-2

6/15

Morocco -0.5 +115

daneblazer · 06-15-18, 07:24 AM

The best part of the biggest loser contest is that the guys who normally couldn’t throw one in the ocean went on a run of a lifetime during that contest

hawkeye 16 · 06-15-18, 07:49 AM

In the first-half of the season MLB contest, I'm last with -169.56 units at 45.71%. That's hard to do. Thankfully, I didn't put real money on most of those.

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by hawkeye 16

In the first-half of the season MLB contest, I'm last with -169.56 units at 45.71%. That's hard to do. Thankfully, I didn't put real money on most of those.

I'm not far behind that total...however I am actually wagering on this shit

I have legit issues that probably should be addressed

hubie69 · 06-15-18, 08:43 AM

We shall call it.....the Brock Landers Trophy

hawkeye 16 · 06-15-18, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

I'm not far behind that total...however I am actually wagering on this shit
I have legit issues that probably should be addressed

I hope you can turn it around Mack, or just say enough is enough. Either way, BOL.

Thrilla · 06-15-18, 09:05 AM

Just take notes of who is a Trumptard on SBR and bet the opposite of their plays.

Also if they don't have a play save yourself time skipping through their posts.

GL

GiveMeaBJ · 06-15-18, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

where has this clown been??

Make a video at Monmouth

Planning to go check it out this coming week will post a vid and review if I feel like it

Larkman · 06-15-18, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by 5mike5

Ur very very wrong about that

Oh ur a newbie lol give it time here in PT

I'm not. Bettors who lose money do so because the distribution of the edges of their bets matches the distribution of edges in the market, and the mean of that distribution is negative, i.e. their bets are effectively random, and they lose money because of the overround. Over a long period of time all losing bettors betting the same market will approach the same negative yield, you can't distinguish between their picks.

To be "bad" instead of just random, a bettor would have to hit a greater distribution of negative value than expected by chance, the only way to do that would be to have a reliable method of working out edges and then choosing to bet on the EV- ones, and who would do that instead of choosing to bet on the EV+ bets?

JohnGalt2341 · 06-15-18, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Larkman

There are no bad bettors, there are good bettors and there are random bettors.

I would argue that Random bettors=Long term bad bettors.

To put it more precisely... there are gamblers and there are handicappers. If you are long term loser you are a gambler. If you are a long term winner you are a handicapper.

JohnGalt2341 · 06-15-18, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by Larkman

I'm not. Bettors who lose money do so because the distribution of the edges of their bets matches the distribution of edges in the market, and the mean of that distribution is negative, i.e. their bets are effectively random, and they lose money because of the overround. Over a long period of time all losing bettors betting the same market will approach the same negative yield, you can't distinguish between their picks.

To be "bad" instead of just random, a bettor would have to hit a greater distribution of negative value than expected by chance, the only way to do that would be to have a reliable method of working out edges and then choosing to bet on the EV- ones, and who would do that instead of choosing to bet on the EV+ bets?

Excellent points in this post. My point is that anyone that continues to gamble after they have enough data to realize that they are completely average is bad. The reason why they are bad is because they keep on gambling and they continue to lose money even after they realize that they are no better than chance. Long story short... if you hit less than 52.38% vs -110 you are bad. But I agree with you... there's virtually nobody that consistently hits less than 45% vs -110.

JIBBBY · 06-15-18, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Record 0-2

6/15

Morocco -0.5 +115

You're killing it Mack 0-2 and Morocco about to end in a tie to make you 0-3 in this thread...

I bet Morocco last night myself with the same bet.. I wish I would have seen this post... Damn!!!!

...

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

You're killing it Mack 0-2 and Morocco about to end in a tie to make you 0-3 in this thread...

I bet Morocco last night myself with the same bet.. I wish I would have seen this post... Damn!!!!

...

Jibs I can do this all day man

Next play:

Spain/Portugal draw +225

JIBBBY · 06-15-18, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Jibs I can do this all day man

Next play:

Spain/Portugal draw +225

You need to post fade your picks buddy.. Reverse osmosis...

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

You need to post fade your picks buddy.. Reverse osmosis...

But then those would become my actual picks. The gambling gods don't give me a break

newguy · 06-15-18, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Jibs I can do this all day man

Next play:

Spain/Portugal draw +225

very hard to fade a 3 way line. Plus I think this wins.

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by newguy

very hard to fade a 3 way line. Plus I think this wins.

Indeed hard to fade. But what it does it eliminates one of the possible outcomes. Now just take your pick between the sides. 1/3 chance now 50/50

jjgold · 06-15-18, 12:55 PM

Hey broke balls how about I break you in half up in the Lehigh Valley

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Hey broke balls how about I break you in half up in the Lehigh Valley

Why the fukk would I ever go to that shit hole

Show your bald head in MA

jjgold · 06-15-18, 01:36 PM

newguy · 06-15-18, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by Mackballs

Indeed hard to fade. But what it does it eliminates one of the possible outcomes. Now just take your pick between the sides. 1/3 chance now 50/50

ha!! I am on draw as well. Thought we had chance but gonna need something special from Ronaldo to give us. Shot!!

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 02:57 PM

Shit we won one

Next five just double up and cash in

Losing streak coming

newguy · 06-15-18, 02:57 PM

There we go Mack! Got the something special from Ronaldo!!!!!

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 02:59 PM

Unreal this game

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 04:59 PM

1-3

Grand salami over 130.5 -110

All plays are $50, in reality should be $5.00

JIBBBY · 06-15-18, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Mackballs

1-3

Grand salami over 130.5 -110

All plays are $50, in reality should be $5.00

Shit Mack you're not that mush after all, glad you won one...

Maybe you'll turn it around now and become the best capper on this forum.. Get dialed in, think positive, see trends, don't throw darts or guess, bet on logical plays...

Give to charities and help out old ladies carry stuff for good Karma too...

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Shit Mack you're not that mush after all, glad you won one...

Maybe you'll turn it around now and become the best capper on this forum.. Get dialed in, think positive, see trends, don't throw darts or guess, bet on logical plays...

Give to charities and help out old ladies carry stuff for good Karma too...

I pride myself on going out of my way to hold doors open for elderly citizens, even when the necessary eye contact wasn't made and the distance doesn't justify it. Things will work out eventually

Mackballs · 06-15-18, 05:59 PM

Salami over 130.5 -110
Yankees/rays ff over 5 -105
Baltimore -149
Seattle -141
Cubs/cards over 8.5
Colo/Tex first inning over 0.5 -140
Royals team total over 3.5 -105