Rarely share my picks, but would like to share this one with you all...

[chico2663]

I got him at +700 in a futures bet -- if I had to guess, he will likely go off at around 10-1 on race day. Justify will probably be 5/1, and a couple other horses will hover around that 10/1 range.

The Derby is really a "Win Only" type of betting situation, so I like to call my shot each year with just one horse. If you're betting exotics, you're guessing. You're guessing with every sports wager, but it's best to save the exotics for smaller fields in the Preakness and Belmont.

is he undefeated as a 3 yr old? Last 6 ky derby have been won by a horse that is undefeated as a 3 yr old. justify looks good. good magic looks good haven't looked at entries yet .good luck sir

[chargers4222]

is he undefeated as a 3 yr old? Last 6 ky derby have been won by a horse that is undefeated as a 3 yr old. justify looks good. good magic looks good haven't looked at entries yet .good luck sir

Undefeated baby.

[littlekona]

You keep saying Mendelssohn had no US starts, he won a Breeders Cup race at Del Mar.

on grass sir

[chico2663]

I remember seeing something like this a couple years ago -- do you have the "nine key factors" or a link to the main article?

I love this type of stuff, especially with racing, but I find it hard to believe he made these nine "strikes" without factoring in European horses, and yet Mendelssohn has zero strikes.

plus has a great trainer. also watch solumini sp

[ByeShea]

Magnum Moon to Win the Kentucky Derby

This horse is a physical freak, and more importantly, a closer. He has warded off groups of talented horses down the stretch in big races, something he will need to do in a race that will likely have 20 or more entrants.

With 20 horses no entry can bank on a dream trip, let alone a decent one. A closer needs his path, doesn't take much to wreck his close.

If the pace is slow, the speed horses have the advantage - what you want to see, most ideal, is if some wildcat (usually a 60-1 shot or a throwaway Pletcher entry) bolts into the lead and 4 or 5 horses follow - happens often enough and when it does, that fast pace clears the deck for the closers.

[funnyb25]

Justify (2-1)
Magnum Moon (4-1)
Mendelssohn (9-2)
Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
Good Magic (7-1)
Audible (10-1)
Vino Rosso (12-1)
My Boy Jack (16-1)
Enticed (18-1)
Solomini (20-1)
Instilled Regard (20-1)
Noble Indy (24-1)
Hofburg (30-1)
Lone Sailor (40-1)
Flameaway (40-1)
Combatant (40-1)
Free Drop Billy (40-1)
Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
Bravazo (50-1)
Strike Power (50-1)
Restoring Hope (50-1)
Firenze Fire (60-1)
Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
Dream Baby Dream (100-1)

[ByeShea]

Free Drop Billy.

That's my pick for now. I know nothing about him - what I'll do now is research his upside and craft the argument to fit my bold 40-to-1 assertion.

[steelheaddan]

Great write up. Excited to attend my first derby and see what the excitement is all about (and party down)! All the way from Alaska. I am taking Mendelssohn for the win and will tri and super box Mend, Vino, Justify, Audible and Enticed for my lottery ticket. Best of luck fellas. Crushing bourbon in T-Minus 48 hrs. A little chalky I know!

[ByeShea]

Free Drop Billy.

That's my pick for now. I know nothing about him - what I'll do now is research his upside and craft the argument to fit my bold 40-to-1 assertion.

Okay, I won't even try to justify a poke at Free Drop Billy. Not much of a horse.

-

Looking at speed sheets ... gotta love Audible, especially if 8-1 Morning Line odds hold up - then I really love it. Don't let Audible being owned by Amazon or trained by Pletcher distract - no horse in the field has performed as well to date.

[littlekona]

Okay, I won't even try to justify a poke at Free Drop Billy. Not much of a horse.

-

Looking at speed sheets ... gotta love Audible, especially if 8-1 Morning Line odds hold up - then I really love it. Don't let Audible being owned by Amazon or trained by Pletcher distract - no horse in the field has performed as well to date.

Audible has Storm Cat in Sire Line 0/51 is an eye-catching number not only in its volume (it represents 11.5% of all Kentucky Derby starters since Tabasco Cat finished 6th at 6.1-to-1 in the 1994 Derby) but also because the name attached is one of the premiere sires and sire of sires in the history of the American Turf. (Since 1999, the Storm Cat sire line has had 13.85% of all starters, and since 2007 18.7%)! so he's another instant toss out for win...many of the lower priced horses are win toss outs due to history...Race has fall apart written all over it this year

[Snowball]

Justify (2-1)
Magnum Moon (4-1)
Mendelssohn (9-2)
Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
Good Magic (7-1)
Audible (10-1)
Vino Rosso (12-1)
My Boy Jack (16-1)
Enticed (18-1)
Solomini (20-1)
Instilled Regard (20-1)
Noble Indy (24-1)
Hofburg (30-1)
Lone Sailor (40-1)
Flameaway (40-1)
Combatant (40-1)
Free Drop Billy (40-1)
Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
Bravazo (50-1)
Strike Power (50-1)
Restoring Hope (50-1)
Firenze Fire (60-1)
Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
Dream Baby Dream (100-1)

Crazy. This is why I never liked thoroughbred racing. Too many horses.
Greyhounds when they were running, you had a shot. 8 dogs. Not this.
Pass.

[ThaWoj]

My #1 rule for the derby is auto throw out the rail and 20 post..really 123 and 18/19/20 throw out for the win

It's fun to bet a closer, but it's almost always someone who is close to the pace throughout or stalking.

That being said I'm rolling with my boy jack for a shot.

I know keeneland is not Churchill but fairgrounds horse killed it all month in Lexington

[littlekona]

My #1 rule for the derby is auto throw out the rail and 20 post..really 123 and 18/19/20 throw out for the win

It's fun to bet a closer, but it's almost always someone who is close to the pace throughout or stalking.

That being said I'm rolling with my boy jack for a shot.

I know keeneland is not Churchill but fairgrounds horse killed it all month in Lexington

I thought so to until i looked at pedigree Storm Cat on Sire side and AP Indy on dam..That equals an auto matic tossout on win end but might pick pieces and hit board as I think race falls apart or someone goes wire to wire or very close to it....Horrible race for stalking trip

[chargers4222]

Great write up. Excited to attend my first derby and see what the excitement is all about (and party down)! All the way from Alaska. I am taking Mendelssohn for the win and will tri and super box Mend, Vino, Justify, Audible and Enticed for my lottery ticket. Best of luck fellas. Crushing bourbon in T-Minus 48 hrs. A little chalky I know!

Damn, you're lucky to be able to go. If you're gonna go with a Super Box, I think it's worth it to throw in at least one big dog, but good luck either way.

[steelheaddan]

Thanks man, heading to the airport in a few hours. Looking at My Boy Jack a little harder now. But really with 20 horses it is a true lottery hit. All I know is I will be smashed and having a great time, win or lose!

[hotcross]

do they still run this race if it rains?

[cecil127]

do they still run this race if it rains?

hell yeah. u take the horse whos a mudda. check the lineage and push it through the window w/both hands if his mudda was a mudda

[thechaoz]

Give me a card. Heading to the track today with a buddy but I've only bet once in my life (trifecta, missed by a nose), and I'm a total noob but want to sprinkle a bit

I'm guessing you're trying to box in multiple horses on several combinations of bets and hoping one hits that pays more than your total bets?

Probably sounds dumb (me saying that) but only thing that makes sense and again, total noob

[gauchojake]

Damn My Boy Jack got bet down HUGH

[no1here]

#1 key is horse must be coming off win

[chargers4222]

Did he win?

No lol

[chargers4222]

Well, I had the Curse being broken, but wrong horse. Basically ran horizontal out of the gate and never recovered. Tough to play any horse outside the 10 rail in slop like that, but Justify was the best horse regardless. Crazy how chalky the past handful of Derbys have been. Also think Justify will win the Preakness for sure after how great he looked there.

[t-wizzle]

Babe you were so close. Just one spot away from finishing dead last. Just think, if not for that start you would have had the winner for sure. I know it!

[chargers4222]

Babe you were so close. Just one spot away from finishing dead last. Just think, if not for that start you would have had the winner for sure. I know it!

Hey brother!!!! Yeah if you noticed, I came back to my thread to post an unbiased assessment of the pick, which obviously I learned from you babe!

You always come back to your threads and keep track of your units in a very honest and transparent manner, so I was just following your lead here. Looking forward to tonight's whoppers babe, let's get this cash brother!!!!

[t-wizzle]

Just think. If this great stallion had not gotten off to such a shaky start, he’d have won and you’d be raking in all that cash.

[firedawg]

Just think. If this great stallion had not gotten off to such a shaky start, he’d have won and you’d be raking in all that cash.

He didn’t lose 34 units on him I’m sure

[chargers4222]

Just think. If this great stallion had not gotten off to such a shaky start, he’d have won and you’d be raking in all that cash.

Wow, you weren't lying when you said you "personally get a kick out of" me babe! You are clearly not mad at all and that is why I love you so much!!!

Obviously I take after you. I'm just trying to mirror your behavior, not only on this forum, but in life in general. You always come back to your threads, win or lose, and always take criticism so well.

Also, it's the honesty that really gets me. I'll be a monkey's uncle if T Wizzle has EVER lied about his +/- units, record, or any such thing. No siree, he is the EPITOME of an honest gentleman. I mean sure, sometimes you miss a unit here, 30 units there, whatever babe -- we all make clerical mistakes. That is why I am here to help.

[firedawg]

I need the other handles record


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