Seems to be working or me when teams that are 1-2 pt favs get 5-10pts down early in a game I've been able to jump on them and get them +5 or so. Its rate but if that scenario happens it's been gold for my account. Tonight I'm gonna watch and see if my Lakers can do this ..if I can grab then +4 or more I'm jumping.
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Better than pre gameComment -
I looked into this quite a bit. The math that goes into building the live odds is the same math that goes into building the pre-game spreads, totals, and moneylines. The reason you are seeing wild fluctuations in the live odds is because there are wild fluctuations in likelihood of the outcome as the game progresses. When a team goes on a 10-0 run, their chances of winning are now much better. While it is possible the opponent will now go on a run as well (in which case the live odds will adjust), it is also possible that the opponent will not go on a run (and the 10-0 run could increase). Anyway, the underlying model that generates the live odds looks pretty solid. Take a look at the win probability graphs— that is basically what you are going up against with the live odds.Comment