I can get Berdych +498 against Federer at one of my books

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  • Fidel_CashFlow
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-03-12
    • 53970

    #1
    I can get Berdych +498 against Federer at one of my books
    That might be too good to pass up
    They have played each other a lot
    and Fed has won twice as many as Berd has
    but they have always been close
    Berd just usually chokes
    Talent wise at this stage of their careers they are pretty close
    with Berd being the more powerful of the 2

    if Berd is lacing those aces he will be hard to break
    if Federer isn’t going sideline to sideline with great accuracy
    and allows Berd to get behind his returns this is
    damn near a 50/50 match

    +498 is a great line
    ppl say value doesn’t count if the bet won’t win
    but this is a winnable match for Berd
    he cruised last match over Del Porto
    he was one stroke away from beating Del Portro 6-0
    in the last set but won 6-2 instead

    Both players have looked great but Fed hasn’t beat someone
    like Del Portro , especially how easily Berd handled JDP
    he had 20 aces against him

    +498 cashes once out of 5 times you break even


    a regular -115 play you risking 1.15 to win a single unit
    and unless you have great patience you are in a dogfight
    on that str8 wager just at chance to win a single unit
    I feel like this match will be a dogfight for Federer
    being almost 37 years old and coming back from
    knee problems

    Going to make a milkshake , urinate , walk past the mirror
    in the bathroom and flex hard a few times till I feel lightheaded
    Put on deodorant and then make my decision on this play
  • Fidel_CashFlow
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-03-12
    • 53970

    #2
    I played it at +498

    the other books I have best line I can get is +405 and +420 ish

    Book I’m using to make this play is caribsports , a book not many people use

    but I swear they always have crazy lines comparable to others

    this shouldn’t be a +500 match , +300 at best

    Stay true with some good rallies , wait till can get centered with feet behind ball

    and try to smash one down the line and break Federer a few times

    He should handle his own on serve , I just hope he takes some chances in this

    match and goes for some dimes down the line in returns and rallies and doesn’t

    wait for Fed to make unforced error . Leave it all out there , take it to a final set

    and make it one set for all the marbles at +500
    Comment
    • ans61201
      SBR MVP
      • 10-11-15
      • 3661

      #3
      Fed 3-0
      Comment
      • JaimeMiro
        SBR MVP
        • 03-14-17
        • 2515

        #4
        difference between top 3, Berdych, Raonic, Kei & also rans isn't much... mostly court coverage and movement. Berd always looks good until he runs into top guns and gets dragged. +500 is good value; prob fed already in the finals.

        Good luck!
        Comment
        • cincinnatikid513
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-23-17
          • 45360

          #5
          fed has beat him the last 9 meetings and berdy only won 2 sets and fed has him 19-6 h2h i don't see how u can say talent wise they are close berdych has made 1 final in his career in majors fed won 2 majors last year when they walk on the court fed starts the match with a 1 set lead over this guy he knows mentally he can't beat fed
          Comment
          • Fidel_CashFlow
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-03-12
            • 53970

            #6
            So does that mean any of you are laying -620 on Federer ?

            Should be a easy u it then.....

            6.2 u it’s to win 1

            i know ans61201 must be since he puts Fed 3 matches to 0

            Yo Cincy , Fed bout 37 years old and Berd looking strong

            on them serves and forehand rips down the lines , I said

            if Berd plays pretty much unforced error free like he did against JDP

            then its 50-50

            Of course the moneyline going to be hard but Berd also is getting + 5.5 games

            that’s certainly reasonable . I’m going to enjoy the match either way

            1. I’ve been up for 2 days straight and basically rooster eyed at this point

            2. Want to see Berd take risks like a mo fo in this match


            3. I’m playing on house money
            when he isnt being stretched sideline to sideline and gets in gets in front of a shot

            Im hoping he goes for the gold and tries to nail some perfect rips

            win or lose go down swinging , no hesitation
            Comment
            • JaimeMiro
              SBR MVP
              • 03-14-17
              • 2515

              #7
              should only factor in age when fed is playing Nadal/Djoko. Most of these other chumps can't figure out granpa. like how we keep saying Ivo is old ... dude's only 40?
              Comment
              • cincinnatikid513
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-23-17
                • 45360

                #8
                i dont bet heavy favs just gonna enjoy the match like watching fed move around the court like a gazelle bol on your wager
                Comment
                • cincinnatikid513
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-23-17
                  • 45360

                  #9
                  good start for tomas fed not serving well to start
                  Comment
                  • cincinnatikid513
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-23-17
                    • 45360

                    #10
                    if fed keeps playing like this u got a good shot hes not sharp at all missed easy volley fed never misses
                    Comment
                    • ans61201
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-11-15
                      • 3661

                      #11
                      If berdych doesn't win the first set after all that, he's toast.
                      Comment
                      • WalkingLuckCharm
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-07-10
                        • 4192

                        #12
                        easiest hedge when berdych was up a break
                        Comment
                        • cincinnatikid513
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 11-23-17
                          • 45360

                          #13
                          tomas better win 1st set might be hard over come letting that one slip if he loses it
                          Comment
                          • JaimeMiro
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-14-17
                            • 2515

                            #14
                            The birdman is toast hereon out. Up 3-0 & can't even serve out the set?.
                            Comment
                            • ans61201
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-11-15
                              • 3661

                              #15
                              It's over. Easy money on fed. Save yourself 1.5 hours of sleep.
                              Comment
                              • JaimeMiro
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-14-17
                                • 2515

                                #16
                                6-6(7-1), & the bird is toast!
                                Comment
                                • cincinnatikid513
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 11-23-17
                                  • 45360

                                  #17
                                  bird man is hanging around fed not looking as good as usual
                                  Comment
                                  • cincinnatikid513
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 11-23-17
                                    • 45360

                                    #18
                                    poor berdych guy is in the wrong era if no nadal federer joker murray this guy would of won a major
                                    Comment
                                    • JaimeMiro
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-14-17
                                      • 2515

                                      #19
                                      Fed knows how to snatch Berd's heart out... dude was clearly having a bad day & yet covers
                                      Comment
                                      • cincinnatikid513
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 11-23-17
                                        • 45360

                                        #20
                                        if you want beat federer better take that 1st set, he is a front runner once he gets ahead it's usually game over, when federer gets down a set or 2 he becomes more human
                                        Comment
                                        • jjgold
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 07-20-05
                                          • 388179

                                          #21
                                          Fed seems unbeatable
                                          Comment
                                          • Fidel_CashFlow
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-03-12
                                            • 53970

                                            #22
                                            Damn , Fed shows why he is a true champion
                                            so many times Berd had him dead to rights and
                                            somehow fed held

                                            Was a great match , just started betting Tennis this year and
                                            I’m up almost 20 units , there are things from a betting angle
                                            that I love about this sport .
                                            Comment
                                            • RudyRuetigger
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 08-24-10
                                              • 65084

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                              Damn , Fed shows why he is a true champion
                                              so many times Berd had him dead to rights and
                                              somehow fed held

                                              Was a great match , just started betting Tennis this year and
                                              I’m up almost 20 units , there are things from a betting angle
                                              that I love about this sport
                                              .
                                              thanks for letting us know what they are
                                              Comment
                                              • Fidel_CashFlow
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-03-12
                                                • 53970

                                                #24
                                                No 1 listens here anyways Rudy lol
                                                I could be up 100 units instead of just 50 overall
                                                and it would be the same shit .
                                                Anyways , this play lost so wtf do I know
                                                Comment
                                                • RudyRuetigger
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 08-24-10
                                                  • 65084

                                                  #25
                                                  believe it or not

                                                  I listen bro
                                                  Comment
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