Realistic look at Game 7

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  • RangeFinder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-27-16
    • 8041

    #1
    Realistic look at Game 7
    Well my over 7.5 at plus odds didn't work in Game 6 but when I thought back at the game, two hits and it would've been 8 runs up but that's the breaks.

    Tonight's Game 7 has brought a lot of noise with some very sizable wagers, one being 14 million and there have been some others.

    Let's clear the clouds. Realistically my numbers stack up at L.A -130 and Houston +120 which is right where the number opened at in some places. I believe the value is on the Astro's for +EV players. For momentum players the money is pounding the Dodgers. I will take value over momentum every time. Numbers, over the long term, will speak for themselves and value will ultimately get the money. Momentum is for the "Now" crowd. I have chose to stay off the side and go with the total.

    Total has been rock solid around 7.5 almost all of these games. The Over-Under has split 3-3 in the 6 games. I believe the totals should have been higher and will correct itself and go Over the 7.5 tonight.

    So Over 7.5 -108 for me

    Good luck if you follow along and enjoy the game.
  • Fidel_CashFlow
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-03-12
    • 53970

    #2
    Neither of these teams are hitting that good in the playoffs
    just look at their averages
    7.5 is always a tricky number
    but pitchers will be pulled quick
    damage will be limited quick
    land honestly game 7 is usually a dogfight
    and rather low scoring game

    not sure what I'm playin if anything yet but def not the over
    Comment
    • krk1030
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-13-08
      • 17610

      #3
      Doubt we see an actual relief pitcher other than morrow and Jansen.

      Can't see Houston using any
      Comment
      • lakerboy
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-02-09
        • 94379

        #4
        Only thing you need to look at is pinny charging -165 on over 3.5 runs for the dodgers.

        Short explanation- runners on base all night and leaving them stranded.
        Comment
        • Fidel_CashFlow
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-03-12
          • 53970

          #5
          You know what
          and I'm not trolling but being serious here
          I really try to step away and imagine the innings being played in tonight's game
          I see Darvish showing up , pitching 5 innings then getting pulled with a few runners on

          Now McCullers relies on that curveball so much that if he's not on target
          he will get damaged . The Astros bullpen hasn't been dominating
          but also haven't been as bad as everyone thinks outside of Giles numbers
          Gregerson and Harris are great relievers and Devenski was almost unhittable
          during the regular season .....

          I keep seeing a 2-3 type game

          but the number 7.5 is so terrifying of a number when gauging a under

          a bloop and a blast theory comes to mind , umpire calling a strike a ball
          and the next guy barely clearing the wall for 2 runs

          too much juice on the Dodgers and Astros line isn't too exciting either
          I really do want to bet on the last game of the year but might sit back
          and just watch it with no bet

          a possible in game bet wouldn't be a bad idea either , guess we will see
          Comment
          • Snowball
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 11-15-09
            • 30058

            #6
            Originally posted by RangeFinder
            one being 14 million
            Not saying just you but it's amazing how easily ppl believe
            this outrageous claim with absolutely nothing to verify it
            by the self-promoting RJ Bell. I guess the more it's repeated,
            the more it's "truthiness" ?
            Comment
            • slayer14
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-12-13
              • 22022

              #7
              Just fade big papi Ortiz
              Comment
              • Snowball
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 11-15-09
                • 30058

                #8
                I am hedging out with Astros at 149
                and looking forward to the Bruins tomorrow.

                could care less who wins this World Series.
                $ is win and I'm done.
                Comment
                • jjgold
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-20-05
                  • 388179

                  #9
                  Ranger you’ve had about three winners in the last two weeks come on get back in the groove
                  Comment
                  • RangeFinder
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 10-27-16
                    • 8041

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jjgold
                    Ranger you’ve had about three winners in the last two weeks come on get back in the groove
                    I've had more than 3 JJ although I admit to having a bad month. I usually will get 2 losing month's on a calendar year and this being the second one so I should be good.
                    Comment
                    • grease lightnin
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-01-12
                      • 16015

                      #11
                      Originally posted by slayer14
                      Just fade big papi Ortiz


                      Who does he like?
                      Comment
                      • lakerboy
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-02-09
                        • 94379

                        #12
                        Originally posted by grease lightnin
                        Who does he like?
                        Dodgers
                        Comment
                        • wikkidinsane
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 05-30-10
                          • 13799

                          #13
                          Range I am sorry bro; unfortunately for you, I am also on the same bet. I am 1-5 in this world series. Hedge now!


                          Nov 1, 2017
                          3:48 AM

                          #1711787954012
                          Placed byWeb

                          Single #1711787954012
                          Baseball - MLB Playoffs - Total
                          Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
                          Over 7.5 (+105) Nov 1, 2017 8:20 PM
                          • BOTH
                          • Yu Darvish (R) must throw first pitch for Los Angeles Dodgers or this pick is NO ACTION.
                          • Lance McCullers (R) must throw first pitch for Houston Astros or this pick is NO ACTION.






                          $170.00
                          $178.50
                          Comment
                          • Fidel_CashFlow
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-03-12
                            • 53970

                            #14
                            all that could happen
                            or a error by the absolutely star struck lookin first baseman Bellinger
                            can change everything in this final game
                            Comment
                            • lakerboy
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 04-02-09
                              • 94379

                              #15
                              Originally posted by lakerboy
                              Only thing you need to look at is pinny charging -165 on over 3.5 runs for the dodgers.

                              Short explanation- runners on base all night and leaving them stranded.
                              Guys I give you info.
                              Comment
                              • RangeFinder
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 10-27-16
                                • 8041

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lakerboy
                                Guys I give you info.
                                I was just about to comment on that post

                                You spoiled it for yourself lol

                                Good call
                                Comment
                                • garvardntl
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 09-11-16
                                  • 372

                                  #17
                                  Looks like a 2-7 game for the Astros. Great start, but Kershaw got in the way
                                  Comment
                                  • Fidel_CashFlow
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-03-12
                                    • 53970

                                    #18
                                    Looks as if my under still would not of cashed ..............................
                                    Comment
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