Warning: Stop betting money line favorites

Jaug · 10-14-17, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by CY892

The line did NOT factor in a single NFL game this week!
So for this week, all you had to do was pick the winner.
This week:
7 favorite covers
6 Dog SU Winners
0 Dog covers by spread
———————————
For the year:
35 Favorite covers
28 Dog SU winners
9 Dog covers – due to spread.
5 WEEKS in!! -Only in 9 games – has the spread been a factor in the result!

**Since the points are wasted in 5/6 games: Should you rarely bet money-line on favorites?

****So if you can just pick the SU winner– you win 5/6 NFL games******
Questions:
Since the points are wasted in 5/6 games: Should you mostly bet money-line if you like the dog?
Since the points are wasted in 5/6 games: Should you rarely bet money-line on favorites?
Is all the “line-value” talk over-rated? Only 8/60 games covered within 3 points of the line–
Teasers not smart either

This is not good for the bookies. They get action on favorite spread and underdog moneyline mostly. That means they are probably having a bad NFL season.

jjgold · 10-14-17, 04:12 AM

I never saw a big money line underdogs pour in so much this year

GunShard · 10-14-17, 03:51 PM

Mayweather money line = 100% money

jjgold · 10-14-17, 04:09 PM

Destruction

Great word for it

KVB · 10-15-17, 11:47 AM

It is my opinion that moneyline favorites will be winning this week with few upsets against the moneyline.

jjgold · 10-15-17, 01:57 PM

Mother fukker

I am still a sucker and bet ml favs

Sucker sucker

KVB · 10-15-17, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Mother fukker

I am still a sucker and bet ml favs

Sucker sucker

Don't be so hard on yourself.

Of the 7 games playing, the ML favorite is winning 5 of them. GB and Balt are losing, but Rogers broke a collarbone.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-15-17, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Destruction

Great word for it

Post more plays. This forum needs your Fades!

KVB · 10-15-17, 02:34 PM

SF and Miami trying to make games of it.

KVB · 10-15-17, 07:26 PM

For Week 6, including Thursday night's game, there have been 2 favorites that won and covered the spread.

There have been 10 underdogs covering the number against the close with 8 of them winning outright.

There have been 7 Overs and 5 Unders against the close.

jjgold · 10-15-17, 07:54 PM

Damn

Vegas cleaning up

silver39 · 10-16-17, 12:26 AM

Add another to the list

KVB · 10-16-17, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Here are the Favorite/Underdog results in the NFL so far this year against the close. The Underdogs are covering at a fairly high clip and those that win outright are doing it at a high clip as well…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push

1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	13	2	11	9

Totals	90	35	54	39	1
%		38.89%	60.00%	43.33%	1.11%
			% of Dogs:	72.22%

	Note: One Game left for week 6

Now let’s take out the 1^st two weeks and see what’s happened in the last four weeks…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push

3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	13	2	11	9

Totals	59	20	39	30	0
%		33.90%	66.10%	50.85%	0.00%
			% of Dogs:	76.92%

	Note: One Game left for week 6

jjgold · 10-16-17, 07:42 PM

Fav due tonight
Right?

Philmill · 10-16-17, 08:30 PM

my only 2 loses in NFL this year where home team favs

gold knows things..........

lonegambler23 · 10-16-17, 11:58 PM

should have been signaled to otters nation

KVB · 10-31-17, 01:51 AM

A little follow up to the earlier post.

Here's the breakdown of Favorites/Underdog spread results for the NFL through the first half of the season. This also included the percent of Underogs that win outright...

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push

1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	14	3	11	9
7	15	9	4	3	2
8	13	8	5	1

Totals	119	53	63	43	3
%		44.54%	52.94%	36.13%	2.52%
			% of Dogs:	68.25%

Here are just the last two weeks showing a sharp rebound of favorites...

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push

7	15	9	4	3	2
8	13	8	5	1

Totals	28	17	9	4	2
%		60.71%	32.14%	14.29%	7.14%
			% of Dogs:	44.44%

To stay consistent here is the 2nd quarter of the season, the last four weeks...

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push

5	14	7	7	6
6	14	3	11	9
7	15	9	4	3	2
8	13	8	5	1

Totals	56	27	27	19	2
%		48.21%	48.21%	33.93%	3.57%
			% of Dogs:	70.37%

jjgold · 10-31-17, 05:21 AM

NFL rebound but NBA dogs pouring in

Overall these ML favs kill us

Sam Odom · 10-31-17, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by CY892

So for this week, all you had to do was pick the winner.

That is JJ's rule #3

Just Pick Winners

jjgold · 10-31-17, 10:43 AM

How do you win????????????