What's Your Approach to NFL Preseason?

[MeanPeopleSuck]

How do YOU bet preseason games?


I think I'm going to research 3 theories. If anybody already has any of this data, I'd definitely owe them a beer if they could post it!

1. Take any underdog +3 or higher? My thinking is you're betting on scrubs, anyway, so if you can get a FG, maybe take it, even if it's Browns vs Pats?

2. Take game line UN's? Defenses come together quicker than offenses, which might keep scoring down. Also, a lot of 2nd/3rd string kickers should see PT this weekend.

3. Take 1Q OV's? Since 1Q O/U's are set by a formula based on the game's O/U, getting that first team offense, even if it's only for a series or two, seems like it might make 1Q OV's a bet.


I'm guessing research will show that only one (or neither) of numbers 2 and 3 can be true, but like I said, if anybody already has this data, I'd totally appreciate them posting it.

Thanks!

[MinnesotaFats]

Skip it or bet the coaches that care....

Dennis Green used to love winning preseason games, he was cash in MN for years pre season...

Harbaugh and Carrol love winning preseason.

No-one else particularly cares in recent history.

[jjgold]

There is no approach unless you're a compulsive gambler

[2daBank]

Totals.

I look for games like tonight where you got either a qb competition or a rookie like Watson. Mainly I want good qbs getting lots of time vs backup defenses.,

I think the broncos/bears has potential w a qb battle in Denver so we should see those guys play a lot. Bears gonna give time to several guys and while I don't think their rookie will look good he might or he might give points to the other team. Ov 35 seems like decent play.

[Shute]

3rd week all prime starters rest
Cap based on 2nd string QBs
4th week teams will play starters 1st half
Teams are evaluating the QB position and don't want starters getting hurt
Confident teams don't care about a win they are more concerned with evaluating positions
Sucky teams want to win and get some momentum for the franchise

[2daBank]

Pointless imo to try and bet sides as you betting on a team that doesn't care if they win or lose. They do care about performances and evaluation tho so I think there merit to totals.

[Shute]

I agree banker
But most of us have been waiting for this for 7 months

[2daBank]

I agree banker
But most of us have been waiting for this for 7 months

I hear ya. I love totals anyway tho, I don't need to pick a side.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Skip it or bet the coaches that care....

Dennis Green used to love winning preseason games, he was cash in MN for years pre season...

Harbaugh and Carrol love winning preseason.

No-one else particularly cares in recent history.

Thanks, that's good advice. I'll add Coach's Philosophy to my list (also critical during week 17 'who will rest starters?' plays).

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Totals.

I look for games like tonight where you got either a qb competition or a rookie like Watson. Mainly I want good qbs getting lots of time vs backup defenses.,

I think the broncos/bears has potential w a qb battle in Denver so we should see those guys play a lot. Bears gonna give time to several guys and while I don't think their rookie will look good he might or he might give points to the other team. Ov 35 seems like decent play.

More good advice, thanks. I'll take a closer look at that Broncos / Bears game.

[The Giant]

Stick to cryptos, MPS. Build your NFL bankroll with that, and enjoy the regular season. It's only a month away.

God bless you, brother.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

3rd week all prime starters rest
Cap based on 2nd string QBs
4th week teams will play starters 1st half
Teams are evaluating the QB position and don't want starters getting hurt
Confident teams don't care about a win they are more concerned with evaluating positions
Sucky teams want to win and get some momentum for the franchise

I probably should've defined my preseason weeks better.

It's the second to last preseason game where the starters play the most, isn't it? Maybe as much as 3 quarters, followed by a much lighter load in the last pre season game, to avoid injury?

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Stick to cryptos, MPS. Build your NFL bankroll with that, and enjoy the regular season. It's only a month away.

God bless you, brother.

Hey, Giant, good to see you, my friend!

And yours is probably the best advice I could possibly get!

[juicername]

Skip it or bet the coaches that care....

Dennis Green used to love winning preseason games, he was cash in MN for years pre season...

Harbaugh and Carrol love winning preseason.

No-one else particularly cares in recent history.

This. Might just hammer the Vikings and Mike Zimmer each game. 12-1 in preseason.

[stevenash]

Find a coin, a quarter will do just fine.
Take said quarter and place it on your left thumb.
Give coin a good healthy flip in the air.
Call heads or tails.
If heads, take the home team, if tails, take the visitors.

Simple

[DrunkHorseplayer]

As Fats stated, look at coaches. Some are gung-ho, others don't give a sh*t.

[manny24]

Meaner take Jacksonville 2nd half tomorrow night thank me later

[Jay85]

Just don't bet it ! Period .

[TheMoneyShot]

Pass

[MeanPeopleSuck]

This. Might just hammer the Vikings and Mike Zimmer each game. 12-1 in preseason.

I like your guys' "Coaches That Care" approach.

OK, so should we add anyone else to the following list of "Coaches Who Care"?

1. Vikings: Mike Zimmer

2. Ravens: John Harbaugh

3. Seahawks: Pete Carroll

[boneheaded1]

My best system for preseason is keeping my money in my pocket til it gets real.

[newguy]

Unders week 1 and 2. Generally + money.

[newguy]

I like your guys' "Coaches That Care" approach.

OK, so should we add anyone else to the following list of "Coaches Who Care"?

1. Vikings: Mike Zimmer

2. Ravens: John Harbaugh

3. Seahawks: Pete Carroll

I don't get it anymore but powersweep newsletter used to post coaches pre season records. Could make money both on the guys who care and fading those who don't usually.

[lonegambler23]

you shouldnt, 3-4 weeks til the madness starts

[xKMACKx]

3rd week all prime starters rest
Cap based on 2nd string QBs
4th week teams will play starters 1st half
Teams are evaluating the QB position and don't want starters getting hurt
Confident teams don't care about a win they are more concerned with evaluating positions
Sucky teams want to win and get some momentum for the franchise

False. 3rd week is when starters play a half or near 3 quarters. 4th week they play a series or not at all.

[Shute]

^^^^yes you are correct. My bad

[Shute]

Coaching angle is big...

[Richkas]

just watch

[ENCE]

Skip it or bet the coaches that care....


Dennis Green used to love winning preseason games, he was cash in MN for years pre season...

Harbaugh and Carrol love winning preseason.

No-one else particularly cares in recent history.

http://walterfootball.com/betting_PRE.php

[jjgold]

There's absolutely no way angles on preseason football keep your bet sizes very very small

[JAKEPEAVY21]

as many others have said, I AVOID betting NFL preseason

[Capitols44]

Only play on teams in the preseason that dont face each other during regular season. I always think the coaches dont wanna show off their plays and their best players talents to the opposing team. A lot of people dont know anything until after the first week of the season then its too late the sportsbooks have adjusted the lines to reflect the fans reactions. Remember this you wanna bet against the fans not with them. The fans were having a love fest with desaun watson . I was not having it.Case in point qb watson did some pretty good plays against carolina but the texans did not win.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

http://walterfootball.com/betting_PRE.php

Ence, dude, excellent find. Thanks very much.

As for the rest of the research I proposed doing, I'll post the results when I have them. I wanted that to be now, but the day job got in the way, so probably not until tomorrow.

[b1slickguy]

Use astrology and lunar phase info for preseason and playoffs.
Regular season games can be a bit tricky with these methods, though.

[GunShard]

You don't.
You wait for NFL week 1 to make money.