Bases 2017

[Machine Choice]

72% of the public is on the Brewers, and 92% of the experts are on the Brewers. Yet Giants are favored. I'm hunting for a Giants angle and found a FEW; they are 7-4 in the first game of a series when coming off a loss. And the Brewers pitcher has only pitched 14 innings total, going up against a fearless veteran in Smardj who has nothing to lose. Also, Brewers bullpen has a 5.82 ERA in their last 10 games. San Francisco also owns the Brewers lately (14-3 in the last 17 meetings) and the Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 Monday games. And no Ryan Braun for the Brewers.

[2daBank]

72% of the public is on the Brewers, and 92% of the experts are on the Brewers. Yet Giants are favored. I'm hunting for a Giants angle and found a FEW; they are 7-4 in the first game of a series when coming off a loss. And the Brewers pitcher has only pitched 14 innings total, going up against a fearless veteran in Smardj who has nothing to lose. Also, Brewers bullpen has a 5.82 ERA in their last 10 games. San Francisco also owns the Brewers lately (14-3 in the last 17 meetings) and the Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 Monday games. And no Ryan Braun for the Brewers.

Reason for line and probably best angle is how drastic both pitchers surface stats differ from their peripherals. In sharks case his metrics are that of a guy with a far better era than he has produced while Gurraro (however ya spell brewers starters name ) basically the polar opposite constantly outperforming his metrics. The die hard metrics guys bets always pull more weight on the line than the avg bettor..

[2daBank]

Yes I understand that but I was wondering if he has seen any stats or any reason why the Giants are in fact favorites. I understand his logic for the pick, I just don't get the logic from the oddsmakers (which is why it's one of his picks, i know lol)

Dude just look at the advanced numbers for both starters. Sharks fip way better than era while mil starter era far better than his fip.

[TheLock]

He doesn't play elementary stuff like that. He's playing the fact that the Giants are on the road with Samardzja, going against a pitcher with an ERA under 2, and still favored.

SundayChase, welcome aboard. You're asking some good questions. And the questions you ask lead us to the Giants play. omega summed it up pretty nicely. I'll add that the movement at pinnacle has been relatively good -in that the market isn't moving hard against SFO- so that is a plus as well.

Also notice how incredibly bad SFO's 2017 run differential is. Theyre like 2nd to last in MLB. They're anemic.

I can't think of a single f***** reason to take the Giants; so the Giants it is.

I'll meet you guys at the CT scan clinic tomorrow so we can all have our heads examined together.

[Machine Choice]

I can't think of a single f***** reason to take the Giants; so the Giants it is.

I'll meet you guys at the CT scan clinic tomorrow so we can all have our heads examined together.

lol, Lock you crazy Motherfvcker. I can't bring myself to do this, but I hope it wins yet again. Go Giants.

[TheLock]

Dude just look at the advanced numbers for both starters. Sharks fip way better than era while mil starter era far better than his fip.

It's not really that simple, though. Milwaukees run differential is miles better than the Giants.

I think the books want to gamble on this game. They want Brewer money - and they're getting it - and they're looking to bury recreational bettors.

[Frosty]

I'll cheer for Brew crew 1H and giants comeback in the 6th. BOL tonight fellas

[2daBank]

I disagree it is that simple as to why the line is where it is. Despite number of bets on milw im absolutely confident books making no stand here they simply have more money on sf due to these pitchers metrics. I'm far from a line movement expert but I can pretty much pick out any game with pitchers with this kind of discrepancy and tell you where line going regardless how lopsided number of bets is.. you far better at using such things to determine your play than I am but I'm telling you this is the reason for the line.

[TheLock]

2daBank, you're a solid capper. I'm definitely not coming at you. Are you getting down on either of these sides tonight?

[TheLock]

I'll cheer for Brew crew 1H and giants comeback in the 6th. BOL tonight fellas

Thanks, frosty. Good luck to you as well.

[2daBank]

I played under 8.5 -110 overnight. Nothing on a side. I think samardja should pitch well, I don't expect milw starter to go and regress a lot here, he has proven to me to be the type who will always out perform his peripherals. Think both starters will be good, just hoping neither pen gets beat up on as I have little trust in either. On run differential topic I think lately brewers offense has slowed a great deal which hopefully helps both our causes..

The respect is mutual my friend, I didn't take it as you doing so: nothing wrong with good discussion w slightly difference of opinion., here's to a low scoring sf win!!

[2daBank]

Man shark continues to give up more runs than you would expect. Guy is having career year in terms of k's/9 and k/walk ratio yet having down year. teams have the highest babip against he has allowed in his career, lowest strand rate of his career. Those things shouldn't be at career worst with him pitching well enough to be striking out more than a guy per inning and barely walking anyone: these things should work themselves out but simply havnt been in his case. Hopefully he settles down in a hurry..

[TheLock]

The anemic Giants do what they do best; strand runners in scoring position.

[pilebuck13]

Fukin terrible offense

[TheLock]

The giants scored a run

[TheLock]

We tied

[2daBank]

Shark been great since the 1st inning. You in a good spot w his pitch count low and already into the brewers pen.

[omega]

I don't care what Samardzja's ERA is, that was some balls pitching right there

[2daBank]

I don't care what Samardzja's ERA is, that was some balls pitching right there

His k/bb ratio amazing this season. His era is bound to come down as he pitching way better than era indicates.

[doitnow]

SundayChase, welcome aboard. You're asking some good questions. And the questions you ask lead us to the Giants play. omega summed it up pretty nicely. I'll add that the movement at pinnacle has been relatively good -in that the market isn't moving hard against SFO- so that is a plus as well.

Also notice how incredibly bad SFO's 2017 run differential is. Theyre like 2nd to last in MLB. They're anemic.

I can't think of a single f***** reason to take the Giants; so the Giants it is.

I'll meet you guys at the CT scan clinic tomorrow so we can all have our heads examined together.

Looks like the Giants will cover the co-pay

[omega]

Pretty risky leaving Samardjza in at 107 pitches

[2daBank]

Pretty risky leaving Samardjza in at 107 pitches

I would have killed for Milwaukee manager to show the same kind of balls Friday when he yanked Nelson at 101 pitches and 8 scoreless against kershaw so that the closer could come in and give up a bomb to guy Nelson had already struck out 3 times that night! Annoys me the way they baby these pitchers. Nothing wrong w letting them throw 120-125 when they pitching well.

[omega]

How do they know??? How do they know??

[TheLock]

Giants -120 (1 unit)

That's 5 winners in a row.

$$


YTD 57-33 +30.42 units

[juicername]

Well done sir.

[pilebuck13]

Lock your on fire

[cooperman]

at least now we can afford our co-pays at the time of CT scan

[Tomatero]

How do they know??? How do they know??

Definitibly, books knows better.

[TheLock]

Arizona/San Diego Over 8.5 is pinging

[kilopro]

One of the best game discussions of the year so far. Very entertaining reading about the different angles people have on the game and in the end Lock comes through again. Good stuff guys.

[pilebuck13]

Arizona/San Diego Over 8.5 is pinging

[omega]

Arizona/San Diego Over 8.5 is pinging

Robbie Ray has been unhittable, Lamet has been decent, yet the line is almost at a 9, and the public is playing the under last I checked. AZ has a great offense, do the books know something about how they match up with this young kid? Are they banking on Lamet getting rocked?

[FUqer]

Padres last in league vs lefties with .595 OPS and .198 BAA, D-Backs strikeout 6th most in the league and Lament can mow them down, I agree definitely seems a little weird.

[Click_Clack]

Stop trying to figure out how this pick not gonna hit and just play it or stay away.

[2daBank]

Robbie Ray has been unhittable, Lamet has been decent, yet the line is almost at a 9, and the public is playing the under last I checked. AZ has a great offense, do the books know something about how they match up with this young kid? Are they banking on Lamet getting rocked?

I havnt looked at game yet but off memory hadn't ray been far far better away from the desert? I've always been a big fan of his stuff I think he quietly one of the better pitchers that gets very little mention. That a tough park to pitch in tho, someone always in threat of being lit up in zona (especially if roof open).