RobbieStacks's Ultimate Value Future and Ultimate Sucker Future Going into the NCAAs

unde0087 · 02-23-17, 10:04 PM

Ya, the value should definitely be on a school or conference who hasn't even seen a final four in around a decade

let me know how that turns out

DrunkHorseplayer · 02-23-17, 10:22 PM

The sucker bet is Gonzaga at around 8/1; they should be at least double those odds.

RobbieStacks · 02-23-17, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

The sucker bet is Gonzaga at around 8/1; they should be at least double those odds.

I can see Gonzaga getting to the Final Four, but they're absolutely not winning it. I remember when they were 40/1 or something like that even when they were about 12-0 or something a few months ago.

goduke · 02-24-17, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

The sucker bet is Gonzaga at around 8/1; they should be at least double those odds.

not sure why you think 8/1 is the wrong odds considering this team most likely makes the elite 8. teams this good in adjusted offense and defense dont just fall apart. Number 4 and number 1 in those categories. The team is for real

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-24-17, 02:58 AM

Nice thread, stacks.

1) I love Oregon. Will be interesting how they spread out the Pac12 teams. If Oregon is lined up w/ Gonzaga as 1/2 in West, Ducks have to feel really good.

2) Not sure that UNC is a dud. I hate em, but they're never too far off.

3) You want a subtle angle for any sentiment on anti-UNC or anti-Duke? Committee ALWAYS sends those teams thru the Greensboro/Raleigh host. Because of the weird state of North Carolina political issue, that host was re-located to Greenville SC. Granted, it's not THAT far away, but it won't be on home soil.

jjgold · 02-24-17, 02:20 PM

NC been playing well

Tons of talent

Oregon tough too

UCLA back on track

TPowell · 02-24-17, 10:42 PM

West Virginia at 28/1 is best I think. Wichita State at 75/1 has the most value overall though

RobbieStacks · 02-24-17, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

West Virginia at 28/1 is best I think. Wichita State at 75/1 has the most value overall though

Yeah West Virginia seems like it could, but would you really trust them to? That being said, won't be shocked if they're in the Final Four.

RobbieStacks · 02-24-17, 10:47 PM

My gut tells me the Missouri Valley is terrible this year, and I'm only seeing Wichita being favored by 7-15 points in its MVC games. They don't inspire confidence in me. If they were a title contender, they'd literally be blowing teams out by 30+ every night in a down MVC.

TPowell · 02-24-17, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

My gut tells me the Missouri Valley is terrible this year, and I'm only seeing Wichita being favored by 7-15 points in its MVC games. They don't inspire confidence in me. If they were a title contender, they'd literally be blowing teams out by 30+ every night in a down MVC.

They've been blowing teams out pretty well IMO. MVC is down from normal. A step above the WCC that Gonzaga plays in though. I'm not sure I trust WVU to win it all but they've had a great season. 6 losses and 3 were in OT and none were by more than 7 points.

kidcudi92 · 02-24-17, 11:21 PM

Robbietard is your new name

chico2663 · 02-24-17, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

Value- Oregon 14/1

Opened the season at 10/1 I believe and have all the ingredients to win the title. The meltdown against UCLA and trailing crappy Cal by 14 won't matter. No one else has Dillon Brooks or Boucher and this team is ready.

Sucker- North Carolina 17/2

Forget what they opened up at, but it was worse than that. There's something not right with UNC. Some books have them currently favored at a healthy rate to win the title, but I highly doubt it. Don't do it, they won't even make the Final Four.

Thank me later.

should i notify heritage that i want to drop my north carolina bets? I did put 15 to win 1200 on butler. Any team that can beat villanova has my respect. Also wasted 5 on cincy at 100-1. It is a fan bet

RobbieStacks · 02-24-17, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

They've been blowing teams out pretty well IMO. MVC is down from normal. A step above the WCC that Gonzaga plays in though. I'm not sure I trust WVU to win it all but they've had a great season. 6 losses and 3 were in OT and none were by more than 7 points.

Wichita State seems like a team that could be gone right away. Weak conference, lost too much, and will probably be overseeded. I don't see any non-Gonzaga mid major coming close to the Elite Eight even, but I think SMU might have a nice run in them.

RobbieStacks · 02-24-17, 11:26 PM

I'm telling you don't bet UNC. I guarantee they won't make the Final Four. This is the year of the Pac-12 tbh.

chico2663 · 02-24-17, 11:32 PM

already made the bet . what do you think of butler?

RobbieStacks · 02-25-17, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by chico2663

already made the bet . what do you think of butler?

I was listening to Jay Wright talk on PTI, and he was talking about how Butler could win the national title (while explaining that a great number of teams could) which is just laughable to anyone on here.

They're a hard team to project. Could be gone right away or could win a game. I don't expect Butler to go very far because they're a high IQ team, but that's it. The actual talent really isn't as good as people think. So let's say they get like a 3 seed or 4 seed, they could very well be in trouble off the bat if they play an explosive and athletic team like East Tennessee State or something. It's really tough to say, but I don't think Butler will be favored by double digits in any of its NCAA games to be honest.

TPowell · 02-25-17, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

Wichita State seems like a team that could be gone right away. Weak conference, lost too much, and will probably be overseeded. I don't see any non-Gonzaga mid major coming close to the Elite Eight even, but I think SMU might have a nice run in them.

Have to disagree. If they don't get screwed, SMU has a decent shot at a Final 4. Wichita is very popular in the advanced metrics and will be vastly under-seeded but maybe they make some noise.

chico2663 · 02-25-17, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by RobbieStacks

I was listening to Jay Wright talk on PTI, and he was talking about how Butler could win the national title (while explaining that a great number of teams could) which is just laughable to anyone on here.

They're a hard team to project. Could be gone right away or could win a game. I don't expect Butler to go very far because they're a high IQ team, but that's it. The actual talent really isn't as good as people think. So let's say they get like a 3 seed or 4 seed, they could very well be in trouble off the bat if they play an explosive and athletic team like East Tennessee State or something. It's really tough to say, but I don't think Butler will be favored by double digits in any of its NCAA games to be honest.

So if they are shit then how did they sweep villanova?

RobbieStacks · 02-25-17, 12:56 PM

Villanova beat themselves, particularly at the Pavilion. And really Villanova is a great team with a shot at the Final Four, but let's not forget that they're not exactly overly talented. They're like that Florida team a few years ago with Scottie Wilbekin that was being overrated because of metrics. Nobody on Villanova is a good NBA player. Ochefu from last year's team was the only guy with a decent shot because of his prototype size.

Look at Jalen Brunson, a former McDonald's All American, who looks awesome in some games. He's going to be an absolute nobody at the pro level. So if the machine isn't clicking on all ends, they can lose to a lot of teams because they don't have the pure talent of a UCLA or Kentucky to still win when things aren't going well.

INVEGA MAN · 02-25-17, 01:38 PM

Its been 20 years since a west coast team has won

RobbieStacks · 02-25-17, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by INVEGA MAN

Its been 20 years since a west coast team has won

And it's gonna happen this year. And I've never even been to the West Coast.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 02-25-17, 02:26 PM

West Virginia for sure at 28/1. This is a final four caliber team and when you have that with 28/1 odds you need to place the wager.