Super Bowl--Posters Consensus

[garygroundwork]

Patriots

[chico2663]

I posted this in another thread but I'm thoroughly convinced Atlanta wins by at least a TD!...here's my mathematical reasoning and using the eyeball test after watching both of these teams several times this year...so without further ado....

I'm not a firm believer in using the transitive property as a "be all and end all" barometer, but just like the RPI in college basketball, it is a useful tool and metric stat to help make a pick...here are the common opponents of both teams:

New England 23 Arizona 21 (at Arizona)...2pt victory
New England 30 San Fran 17 (at San Fran)...13pt victory
New England 26 Rams 10 (at New England)...16pt victory
New England 16 Denver 3 (at Denver)...13pt victory


Atlanta 38 Arizona 19 (at Atlanta)...19pt victory
Atlanta 41 San Fran 13 (at Atlanta)...28pt victory
Atlanta 42 Rams 14 (at LA Rams)...28pt victory
Atlanta 23 Denver 16 (at Denver)...7pt victory

what exactly does this info mean?...well if you use the old rule of thumb that homefield is worth (+3) points, then we can make the following adjustments:

Pats over Cardinals = 5pts
Pats over San Fran = 16pts
Pats over Rams = 13pts
Pats over Broncos = 16pts

add the four totals up and then divide by 4 and you get 50/4 which means Pats adjusted average margin of victory is 12.5pts per game

Atlanta over Cardinals = 16pts
Atlanta over San Fran = 25pts
Atlanta over LA Rams = 31pts
Atlanta over Denver = 10pts


add the totals up and then divide by four and you get 82/4 which means Falcons adjusted average margin of victory is 20.5pts per game

so 20.5 - 12.5 = Atlanta by 8 over New England in the Superbowl!...Falcons win 31 - 23!....


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This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: GunShard

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1

My friends used to call this CHICOLOGY. bad part is it rarely comes in.

[Lex_icon]

Falcons

I just like teams with animal names.

[TheMoneyShot]

Manster needs to run this formula by me again... I'm...

[stackz125]

Probably props only for me

What does your model have?

[kingdom]

Pats heavy in motivation and experience. Bill and Brady going to their 7th SB together. They know not many rounds left and the Goodell edge adds on to motivation. Bill loves the challenge of Preparing for the hottest offense and Brady will use challenge of beating mvp Matt Ryan. 2 qb led teams but one has a great defense and strong secondary. One coach in league for 2 seasons while other in 7th superbowl. One team excellent for years, the other had a great year. For these and many other reasons, i'm on the Pats and Brady aka the G.O.A.T. They'll just call him "Five" after he wins this one cause no other qb has ever done it. Come to think of it, his coach is the G.O.A.T too. So the reason to take the Falcons is a hot offense??? Nah....

[astro61200]

Pats heavy in motivation and experience. Bill and Brady going to their 7th SB together. They know not many rounds left and the Goodell edge adds on to motivation. Bill loves the challenge of Preparing for the hottest offense and Brady will use challenge of beating mvp Matt Ryan. 2 qb led teams but one has a great defense and strong secondary. One coach in league for 2 seasons while other in 7th superbowl. One team excellent for years, the other had a great year. For these and many other reasons, i'm on the Pats and Brady aka the G.O.A.T. They'll just call him "Five" after he wins this one cause no other qb has ever done it. Come to think of it, his coach is the G.O.A.T too. So the reason to take the Falcons is a hot offense??? Nah....

Yes, because the Falcons aren't motivated by the fact if you find any article about the Super Bowl it has a Patriot plastered on there as the main picture.

[mtneer1212]

I really feel like the sharp side is the Falcons. Going with the dirty birds +3.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

I think this is an easy one. NE 31-23

[kingdom]

Yes, because the Falcons aren't motivated by the fact if you find any article about the Super Bowl it has a Patriot plastered on there as the main picture.

u go with the guy that has been a consistent big game failure and a 2nd year coach. i'm cool with B & B. Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn > Belichick and Brady lol...

[tony_come]

Big game is almost heee

[LT Profits]

What does your model have?

Line seems dead on, Pats -3.34

Precisely why I scoff at those that insist on making this Super Bowl bet their biggest bet of the year, this line is a coin flip (unless we see a -2.5 )

[grease lightnin]

List is updated. Will continue to update throughout the day.

If you are non-pro, and I never heard of you, I did not add you, sorry.





LT, I am not confident at all. Not at all. But I am probably going to put all my winnings for football season on Pats moneyline. Why? Because I gamble.

[HawthornHawks]

National Anthem under 130 seconds!!! hope this kicks off the day in style!!

[daneblazer]

Falcons

[Itsamazing777]

Fading the Pats is like fading Alabama

[LT Profits]

Fading the Pats is like fading Alabama

Clemson says hello.

[Itsamazing777]

Clemson says hello.

As a general rule, lol

[grease lightnin]

Fading the Pats is like fading Alabama

You on Pats?

[grease lightnin]

I thought it might be interesting to see who's on who in one place. I will edit if I miss people. Feel free to post who you're on in this thread.



Pats


biggie12
Paco? (possible jinx)
El Nino
Harry N Lloyd
Boston Gambler (homer)
JJ
JIBBY
Snowball
Greaser (lean)
Kraken
Bigday
seaweed
Unde
cankid
The Giant
CTOWNsCAPPIN




Falcons


Homie1975
Lakerboy
Dollars2Donuts
SharpAngles (lean)
astro61200
Cuser
Da Manster
Otters (lean)
Charles Barkley
manny24
Gunshard
PorkChop
TheMoneyShot
Fidel
sweethook
chico
mtneer1212
daneblazer
Jmobile




What does this tell us?

Is one side stronger than the other?

Moving list to pg 2

[rkelly110]

Hate the Pats. Would love for the birds to do a flyby shit on them. Betting heads on coin flip. Over at the start
and can watch the game w/o throwing shit at the TV.

[new era]

I posted this in another thread but I'm thoroughly convinced Atlanta wins by at least a TD!...here's my mathematical reasoning and using the eyeball test after watching both of these teams several times this year...so without further ado....

I'm not a firm believer in using the transitive property as a "be all and end all" barometer, but just like the RPI in college basketball, it is a useful tool and metric stat to help make a pick...here are the common opponents of both teams:

New England 23 Arizona 21 (at Arizona)...2pt victory
New England 30 San Fran 17 (at San Fran)...13pt victory
New England 26 Rams 10 (at New England)...16pt victory
New England 16 Denver 3 (at Denver)...13pt victory


Atlanta 38 Arizona 19 (at Atlanta)...19pt victory
Atlanta 41 San Fran 13 (at Atlanta)...28pt victory
Atlanta 42 Rams 14 (at LA Rams)...28pt victory
Atlanta 23 Denver 16 (at Denver)...7pt victory

what exactly does this info mean?...well if you use the old rule of thumb that homefield is worth (+3) points, then we can make the following adjustments:

Pats over Cardinals = 5pts
Pats over San Fran = 16pts
Pats over Rams = 13pts
Pats over Broncos = 16pts

add the four totals up and then divide by 4 and you get 50/4 which means Pats adjusted average margin of victory is 12.5pts per game

Atlanta over Cardinals = 16pts
Atlanta over San Fran = 25pts
Atlanta over LA Rams = 31pts
Atlanta over Denver = 10pts


add the totals up and then divide by four and you get 82/4 which means Falcons adjusted average margin of victory is 20.5pts per game

so 20.5 - 12.5 = Atlanta by 8 over New England in the Superbowl!...Falcons win 31 - 23!....

This is dodgy logic. Might be elementary school level.
Not only that but Brady didn't even play in 25% of the games.

Pats win easy.

[Itsamazing777]

You on Pats?

Yeah.

[chosen4th]

This is dodgy logic. Might be elementary school level.
Not only that but Brady didn't even play in 25% of the games.

Pats win easy.

And with that "formula" atl had 2 home games, NE only one.. And the road games are all west coast.. this guy doesnt factor in anything that matters

[Sam Odom]

NE -3 -103 57%
Atl +3 -107 44%

Ov 58½ -105 51%
Un 58½ -105 49%

[chosen4th]

NE -3 -103 57%
Atl +3 -107 44%

Ov 58½ -105 51%
Un 58½ -105 49%

Not sure where youre even getting that number.. VegasInsider, Thespread, Scoresandodds, and pregame, all have public on Pats 64-65%

[Sam Odom]

Pinny via SBR Odds

Sports Option showing heavy NE

[stevenash]

Falcs +3
Falcs money line
Under 59

[chosen4th]

Pinny via SBR Odds

Sports Option showing heavy NE

Ive never been so lost on how i want to bet the super bowl... im looking for anything to make me go one way or the other

[Da Manster!]

This is dodgy logic. Might be elementary school level.
Not only that but Brady didn't even play in 25% of the games.

Pats win easy.

except for the fact that I'm one of the best cappers on this forum and actually bet real money and post tickets!...and have had winning threads on here for years...all validated and verified on SBR.......PS..and just so you know, the only game Brady didn't play in with common opponents was the Arizona game...he played in the other three that I mentioned...for you to bring that point up is borderline kindergarten level....

[Da Manster!]

And with that "formula" atl had 2 home games, NE only one.. And the road games are all west coast.. this guy doesnt factor in anything that matters

never heard of ya pal......and teams traveling east to west doesn't matter!..it's the other way around you dipshit!...and if your illiterate sorry ass could read and comprehend english, I did indeed factor in homefield advantage!....Christ, I've never seen so many dumb fuks in one place!...

[Cuse0323]

Ive never been so lost on how i want to bet the super bowl... im looking for anything to make me go one way or the other

I have a lot riding on ATL ML. That never works out.

There you go.

[Da Manster!]

Ive never been so lost on how i want to bet the super bowl... im looking for anything to make me go one way or the other

then don't bet the fukkin' game!...simple as that...who's twisting your arm to bet the Superbowl?!

[swordsandtequila]

Falcons +3 and ml.

[Snowball]

Pats by 10+.