Atl @ Home
38.2 PF avg
26.9 PA avg
Has played #3 D in Sea (36 pts) and #7 D in KC (28 pts) and a few in 10-20 range, and then a few of the worst Ds in the league
GB @ Road
27.1 PF avg
28.6 PA Avg
Has played a few of the top Ds in the league in Dal (34 pts) and Min (14 pts) and then a mixture of ok Ds and bad Ds
Previous matchup Atl 33-32 in Atl
The odds for playoff lines are pretty sharp, Atl vs Sea was a "betting line" of Atl 28.5-22.5 (or close to it)
GB vs Dal was Dal 29-24
Now the "betting line" is Atl 32.25-27.75
In my opinion, the line looks spot on. But that would be if all things considered, GB wasn't a mess in their secondary.
I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Atlanta didn't get to 35 points or more; which they have done vs nearly every type and rank of D they've faced at home this season. They excel where GB is extremely weak, the passing game. There is no reason to believe GB will shut them down.
So if you're going to bet GB, you have to believe that AR can keep up with them. While he almost certainly has the ability to, it's asking a lot every week. I don't buy any hype that Jordy Nelson will play and if he does, he won't be anywhere near useful. I think it's a ploy for Atl to game plan him.
Outside of the first quarter or 1.5 quarters last week (and of course the final play), AR's numbers were mediocre. Now maybe it was part of playing conservative, but being a bettor on GB last week on the ML, I wanted nothing to do with an OT game. I had zero confidence that GB could stop Dal. They needed very weak calls to stop them early in the game.
Atlanta also has a very underrated running game. Will they use it? Who knows.
It's worth noting that Atlantas last 5 home games they've held the opponent to 19 (6 rank offense Arz), 29 (13 rank offense KC), 13 (SF 27 rank), 32 (NO 2nd rank), and 20 (Sea rank 18). So as bad as their defense seems, outside of the first four home games including GB, they gave up 31,33,33,32.; it's not as bad as it would seem.
GB is hot, but when you need your QB to play nearly perfect every week, I just think the train stops this week. If GB's secondary was healthy, they would be the play.
Vegas doesn't give free money away, ask yourself, how many people do you know on GB right now? Every one and their mother, and they're still 4.5-5 points away. And vegas was torched last week.
I'll be on Atlanta ML, spread, and TT over.
Good luck
38.2 PF avg
26.9 PA avg
Has played #3 D in Sea (36 pts) and #7 D in KC (28 pts) and a few in 10-20 range, and then a few of the worst Ds in the league
GB @ Road
27.1 PF avg
28.6 PA Avg
Has played a few of the top Ds in the league in Dal (34 pts) and Min (14 pts) and then a mixture of ok Ds and bad Ds
Previous matchup Atl 33-32 in Atl
The odds for playoff lines are pretty sharp, Atl vs Sea was a "betting line" of Atl 28.5-22.5 (or close to it)
GB vs Dal was Dal 29-24
Now the "betting line" is Atl 32.25-27.75
In my opinion, the line looks spot on. But that would be if all things considered, GB wasn't a mess in their secondary.
I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Atlanta didn't get to 35 points or more; which they have done vs nearly every type and rank of D they've faced at home this season. They excel where GB is extremely weak, the passing game. There is no reason to believe GB will shut them down.
So if you're going to bet GB, you have to believe that AR can keep up with them. While he almost certainly has the ability to, it's asking a lot every week. I don't buy any hype that Jordy Nelson will play and if he does, he won't be anywhere near useful. I think it's a ploy for Atl to game plan him.
Outside of the first quarter or 1.5 quarters last week (and of course the final play), AR's numbers were mediocre. Now maybe it was part of playing conservative, but being a bettor on GB last week on the ML, I wanted nothing to do with an OT game. I had zero confidence that GB could stop Dal. They needed very weak calls to stop them early in the game.
Atlanta also has a very underrated running game. Will they use it? Who knows.
It's worth noting that Atlantas last 5 home games they've held the opponent to 19 (6 rank offense Arz), 29 (13 rank offense KC), 13 (SF 27 rank), 32 (NO 2nd rank), and 20 (Sea rank 18). So as bad as their defense seems, outside of the first four home games including GB, they gave up 31,33,33,32.; it's not as bad as it would seem.
GB is hot, but when you need your QB to play nearly perfect every week, I just think the train stops this week. If GB's secondary was healthy, they would be the play.
Vegas doesn't give free money away, ask yourself, how many people do you know on GB right now? Every one and their mother, and they're still 4.5-5 points away. And vegas was torched last week.
I'll be on Atlanta ML, spread, and TT over.
Good luck
