Alabama -12.5 rolls today

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  • CanuckG
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-23-10
    • 21978

    #1
    Alabama -12.5 rolls today
    Bama is on another level compared to what Washington has ever seen. With the line dropping you may even get -12 or -11.5 later but I'm on the 12.5 train.
  • lakerboy
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-02-09
    • 94379

    #2
    Why is line dropping Canuck?
    Comment
    • newguy
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-27-09
      • 6100

      #3
      At this pace we may see the game at a pick by kickoff. Must be ton of money flowing in on wash. Not sure why. Line was stuck at 14 for long enough. Now getting bad numbers. I'm gonna wait to see if it bounces or keeps dropping
      Comment
      • griz
        SBR MVP
        • 01-27-11
        • 3647

        #4
        with you nucker
        Comment
        • pilebuck13
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 05-15-15
          • 17918

          #5
          It will bounce pinny probably closes at -14
          Comment
          • Mac4Lyfe
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-04-09
            • 48384

            #6
            Yeah, this line drop is scary for Bama backers. I'm going to wait for a good Live bet and take Bama live. I have a feeling Washington may dial up something early but Bama will ground and pound in the end. Live bet and then maybe a large 2nd half Bama bet.
            Comment
            • newguy
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-27-09
              • 6100

              #7
              I don't think so. I think this is good for bama backers. This can't be smart money. Nothing new out there unless someone is hurt. Barring injury that isn't widely known I really think bama is right side here. This feels like a lot of public money.

              I've been ice ice cold and was planning on taking wash at the 14 but really think this money makes me feel like bama right side.
              Comment
              • Bombers78
                SBR Rookie
                • 11-22-16
                • 35

                #8
                Hey Mac, what is the girls name in your avatar?
                Comment
                • rizespor
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-21-16
                  • 1900

                  #9
                  Books opening themselves up to a middle. Will be interesting to see what happens
                  Comment
                  • jjgold
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-20-05
                    • 388179

                    #10
                    I took Was +14

                    They got NFL players too
                    Comment
                    • Sam Odom
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-30-05
                      • 58063

                      #11
                      Gen Public wants Ala to lose

                      Most hate Bama
                      Comment
                      • vinndy
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-17-12
                        • 536

                        #12
                        I'm all in on Bama, got it -14, parlayed with over, teased with over, & teased with OSU later. If they let me down I'll be making a deposit for the Fiesta bowl.
                        Comment
                        • pilebuck13
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 05-15-15
                          • 17918

                          #13
                          Originally posted by newguy
                          I don't think so. I think this is good for bama backers. This can't be smart money. Nothing new out there unless someone is hurt. Barring injury that isn't widely known I really think bama is right side here. This feels like a lot of public money.

                          I've been ice ice cold and was planning on taking wash at the 14 but really think this money makes me feel like bama right side.
                          nobody knows
                          Comment
                          • tony_come
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-31-10
                            • 21695

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jjgold
                            I took Was +14

                            They got NFL players too
                            We need BAMA
                            Comment
                            • KVB
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 05-29-14
                              • 74817

                              #15
                              Originally posted by newguy
                              ...This can't be smart money...
                              I have plenty of evidence that it can be sharp money. Plenty, from several metrics including a market beating forecast of Alabama only winning by 8 points (note the movement towards my line.)

                              My non predictive public gauge has Bama by 10.

                              Did you think the line would grow?

                              I don't think you guys understand what "sharp money" is and what drives those "sharp" decision makers.

                              When you talk about right and wrong side, understand that there are many ways to handicap and different programs can be on different sides and still be successful.

                              And remember, your interpretation of "sharp money" as well as actual "sharp forecasts" don't always win the bet.

                              That said, ESPN said there was absolutely nobody on Washington, as the line dropped, while not mentioning the line at all.

                              They went on to mention the Ohio St line and how it's dropped.

                              This may bode well for Bama.

                              Comment
                              • Mac4Lyfe
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-04-09
                                • 48384

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Bombers78
                                Hey Mac, what is the girls name in your avatar?
                                Don't know...
                                Comment
                                • rizespor
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-21-16
                                  • 1900

                                  #17
                                  If line is moving on game day it's 100% sharp money. End of story
                                  Comment
                                  • pilebuck13
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 05-15-15
                                    • 17918

                                    #18
                                    Yah you would think late big money was hoping public would push line to 14.5 or 15 or more before they pounced who knows it opened at 16
                                    Comment
                                    • KVB
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 05-29-14
                                      • 74817

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by rizespor
                                      If line is moving on game day it's 100% sharp money. End of story
                                      Not always, sometimes the books shift the line in hopes of creating unsophisticated steam, preying on those who think in such absolutes.

                                      It happens more often than you'd think.

                                      Comment
                                      • rizespor
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-21-16
                                        • 1900

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                        Not always, sometimes the books shift the line in hopes of creating unsophisticated steam, preying on those who think in such absolutes.

                                        It happens more often than you'd think.

                                        Good point. And it's actually not true for something like nfl where overwhelming public support can move a line too.
                                        Comment
                                        • reigle9
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-25-07
                                          • 17879

                                          #21
                                          World (sharps) were on UW at 14' after the bama opener got steamed. Kept going up to 16',took them again. More money is on bama but the line keeps going down.

                                          All signs point to taking UW outside of the fact Bama will joke them in actual reality.

                                          UW's all-powerful 1 good win that got them in over psu, just lost by 30 in a game they were favored.
                                          Comment
                                          • newguy
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-27-09
                                            • 6100

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by KVB
                                            I have plenty of evidence that it can be sharp money. Plenty, from several metrics including a market beating forecast of Alabama only winning by 8 points (note the movement towards my line.)

                                            My non predictive public gauge has Bama by 10.

                                            Did you think the line would grow?

                                            I don't think you guys understand what "sharp money" is and what drives those "sharp" decision makers.

                                            When you talk about right and wrong side, understand that there are many ways to handicap and different programs can be on different sides and still be successful.

                                            And remember, your interpretation of "sharp money" as well as actual "sharp forecasts" don't always win the bet.

                                            That said, ESPN said there was absolutely nobody on Washington, as the line dropped, while not mentioning the line at all.

                                            They went on to mention the Ohio St line and how it's dropped.

                                            This may bode well for Bama.

                                            I thought line was too high as well. I agree with the public gauge of around 10.

                                            I also agree I don't know what drives all sharp money but seems to me that line sat at 14 for a long time. Everyone I talked to said it was too high. If I'm sharp and think wash is right side nothing was there to tell me that line would go above 14 and I live in SEC country. No metrics, no fans, no gauges I saw. So when line drops its my thought it can't be smart money dropping it. You would be an idiot to have not taken wash at the 14.


                                            When I saw it drop to 13.5 I felt like it was a balloon. Let's see how market reacts. Drive some more money on the game. Maybe that's what it was and that's what dropped it further "dumb money saying shit I missed 14 need 13.5 buying to 14" but I can't see that drop being smart. Not saying it won't win. Most people thought right line was 10 so maybe it was just a market correction and maybe wash wins this outright ( just hit td to go up).
                                            Comment
                                            • Mac4Lyfe
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-04-09
                                              • 48384

                                              #23
                                              Husky TD. This might be the time to take Bama live...

                                              Bama -6.5 right now. I think their offense might get stuck in the mud a little longer and Washington might be able to score again. I'll wait it out a bit more.
                                              Comment
                                              • KVB
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 05-29-14
                                                • 74817

                                                #24
                                                Nice to see a couple of scores, let's get 52 points.

                                                WTF with this command center, just realized I can change the channel...lol.



                                                Comment
                                                • CanuckG
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-23-10
                                                  • 21978

                                                  #25
                                                  Lets go
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMobile
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-21-10
                                                    • 19074

                                                    #26
                                                    Nuckles is the man.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sjm5122
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 09-22-08
                                                      • 4213

                                                      #27
                                                      Gonna need a D score to cover. Bama offense not doing anything
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jjgold
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 07-20-05
                                                        • 388179

                                                        #28
                                                        Canuck back after getting buried in fall

                                                        good call
                                                        Comment
                                                        • KVB
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 05-29-14
                                                          • 74817

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by CanuckG
                                                          Bama is on another level compared to what Washington has ever seen. With the line dropping you may even get -12 or -11.5 later but I'm on the 12.5 train.
                                                          Picked up -12.5 live for one win but lost more on pregame Washington +14.

                                                          Good Job Canuck.

                                                          Comment
                                                          • Goat Milk
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 03-24-10
                                                            • 25850

                                                            #30
                                                            GOod call
                                                            Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                                                            Comment
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