JJ is trying to butter me up so I throw in some bad picks?
Rangers +150 live
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#865
Apricot don't force.
I would like to do something with tracking your thread, and post it here. It is imperative that you just keep doing what you are doing.
I might do a form of price or line error against the close or even open. Can I ask what books you are using?
We can PM if you prefer.
Again, keep doing what you are doing, even if it is throwing darts...lol.
Just kidding there. Keep it up Apricot.
Comment
ApricotSinner32
Restricted User
11-28-10
10648
#866
Not throwing darts there's somewhat of a formula being used. Using all the main american sbr books. Youwager/5d/bookmaker/betonline/nitro
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#867
Originally posted by ApricotSinner32
Not throwing darts...
I figured as much. If I get time, going to compare to the market as a whole and lay some metrics over it. Stock analysis style, see if we can predict your runs a bit. With your odds each play, we can work in mild generalities and still eek out a profit.
Keep up the grinding good work, you are more then eeking out a profit yourself, but I'm going to try and predict you, based on the rest of the market.
Comment
ApricotSinner32
Restricted User
11-28-10
10648
#868
Originally posted by KVB
I figured as much. If I get time, going to compare to the market as a whole and lay some metrics over it. Stock analysis style, see if we can predict your runs a bit. With your odds each play, we can work in mild generalities and still eek out a profit.
Keep up the grinding good work, you are more then eeking out a profit yourself, but I'm going to try and predict you, based on the rest of the market.
If you think the market is sharp than it's best not to bet on mlb as you'll rarely get a number much better than the market.
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#869
Originally posted by ApricotSinner32
If you think the market is sharp than it's best not to bet on mlb as you'll rarely get a number much better than the market.
Right, but with your odds per play, depending on where we can get down, your also paying vigorish.
I think we can soak up that vigorish over time, and at least take that out of the equation.
Don't get me wrong, not saying I would make you more profitable, I would produce far less plays I'm sure, but it could give you insight into a side roll that bets a little more on some plays, and the side roll is just that extra bet.
Not like twice as much, far less, but a little more that the standard unit.
Also, depending on how you search for value combined with trying to predict market movement, you can get good numbers. I define sharp as obtaining the bookmaker's objective in that case, so sharp lines can have value.
I always say, if you know why the line opens where it opens and moves where it closes, you will go a long way...
Comment
ApricotSinner32
Restricted User
11-28-10
10648
#870
115-288 +31.77 units
Comment
ApricotSinner32
Restricted User
11-28-10
10648
#871
Pirates +260
Padres +165
Twins +118
Comment
ApricotSinner32
Restricted User
11-28-10
10648
#872
118-288 +37.20 units
Comment
jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#873
We do not know what Patty is doing here
Does anyone get a read on his plays and why he chooses these or is he just point and clicking dogs?