is Serena Williams @ -515 a lock today??????

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  • BigBusiness
    SBR MVP
    • 09-16-12
    • 3226

    #1
    is Serena Williams @ -515 a lock today??????
    Early exit in the Olympics, she should be a force to be reckoned with today, right?

    Or should I steer clear?

    Any info greatly appreciated.
  • funnyb25
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 07-09-09
    • 39663

    #2
    She is a lock tonight
    Comment
    • unde0087
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 03-27-08
      • 28956

      #3
      First off, there is no such thing as a lock, and secondly, betting that kind of juice you might as well call your book and tell them to just keep your money. They will have it soon enough anyways
      Comment
      • BigBusiness
        SBR MVP
        • 09-16-12
        • 3226

        #4
        Originally posted by unde0087
        First off, there is no such thing as a lock, and secondly, betting that kind of juice you might as well call your book and tell them to just keep your money. They will have it soon enough anyways
        Yeah but this is purely a situational bet. Embarrassing early exit from the olympics. No way she loses early in the us open as well.

        She wants to show everyone it was a fluke and you just know she's going to be at the top of her game tonight. Might have to take the chance here......
        Comment
        • unde0087
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 03-27-08
          • 28956

          #5
          Originally posted by BigBusiness
          Yeah but this is purely a situational bet. Embarrassing early exit from the olympics. No way she loses early in the wimbeldon as well.

          She should be at the top of her game tonight and has something to prove.
          Guy, you asked, I am just telling you, even if she will win 99.9999% of the time betting that juice it's a loser. You get more out of it by not playing. Betting massive ml will never be worth it because you have to wager way too much for zero return and if she loses then you just wagered most of your bankroll, all because You thought she can't lose. Too me it's fukin stupid, just my 2 cents. GL to you if you pull the trigger.
          Comment
          • BigBusiness
            SBR MVP
            • 09-16-12
            • 3226

            #6
            Originally posted by unde0087
            Guy, you asked, I am just telling you, even if she will win 99.9999% of the time betting that juice it's a loser. You get more out of it by not playing. Betting massive ml will never be worth it because you have to wager way too much for zero return and if she loses then you just wagered most of your bankroll, all because You thought she can't lose. Too me it's fukin stupid, just my 2 cents. GL to you if you pull the trigger.
            Yes, I know and I very rarely bet lines this steep. The last time was 4 years ago I believe. I know nothing is a lock when it comes to sports, but this seems like a really good spot to take a chance.

            Thanks for your insight by the way.
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388179

              #7
              Her real
              Line is -110 every match now due to age and injuries
              Comment
              • JohnnyRudeboy
                SBR MVP
                • 11-30-09
                • 1646

                #8
                Originally posted by jjgold
                Her real
                Line is -110 every match now due to age and injuries
                And hormonal imbalances
                Comment
                • GoBlue77
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-20-11
                  • 9166

                  #9
                  line had been dropping ever since released. id bet macaroni just for value sake
                  Comment
                  • BigBusiness
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-16-12
                    • 3226

                    #10
                    fckk it I'm tired of thinking about it.

                    I've locked on to Serena.
                    Good luck to everyone involved
                    Comment
                    • BigBusiness
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-16-12
                      • 3226

                      #11
                      Her sister just won, she be even more motivation to get this win.
                      Comment
                      • DrunkHorseplayer
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-15-10
                        • 7719

                        #12
                        Originally posted by unde0087
                        Guy, you asked, I am just telling you, even if she will win 99.9999% of the time betting that juice it's a loser. You get more out of it by not playing. Betting massive ml will never be worth it because you have to wager way too much for zero return and if she loses then you just wagered most of your bankroll, all because You thought she can't lose. Too me it's fukin stupid, just my 2 cents. GL to you if you pull the trigger.
                        This is 100% wrong. if you believe she's 90% to win then -515 is superb value. Value does exist on chalk, albeit not nearly as often as on dogs.
                        Comment
                        • unde0087
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 03-27-08
                          • 28956

                          #13
                          Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer
                          This is 100% wrong. if you believe she's 90% to win then -515 is superb value. Value does exist on chalk, albeit not nearly as often as on dogs.
                          Agree to disagree.
                          Comment
                          • BigBusiness
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-16-12
                            • 3226

                            #14
                            Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer
                            This is 100% wrong. if you believe she's 90% to win then -515 is superb value. Value does exist on chalk, albeit not nearly as often as on dogs.
                            I believe there is GREAT value in tonight's serena. Early exit from olympics, wants to shut up all of the critics, her sister just won her match, she should come out motivated and on her game.

                            Got it at an even 500 at bookmaker by the way!
                            Comment
                            • Boner_18
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-24-08
                              • 8301

                              #15
                              Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

                              This is 100% wrong. if you believe she's 90% to win then -515 is superb value. Value does exist on chalk, albeit not nearly as often as on dogs.
                              Originally posted by unde0087

                              Agree to disagree.

                              Comment
                              • mighty maron
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-20-09
                                • 4215

                                #16
                                I can see Serena going the way and weight of Aretha Franklin 7 years after retirement
                                Comment
                                • BigBusiness
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-16-12
                                  • 3226

                                  #17
                                  Have a good night everyone!
                                  Comment
                                  • Pingpong4590
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 07-23-16
                                    • 2

                                    #18
                                    Nice call
                                    Haters gon hate
                                    Comment
                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 08-24-10
                                      • 65084

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Boner_18
                                      there is nothing wrong with unde's advice. I don't share it in this instance, but everyone agrees with him... at some (input fav) odds they wouldn't bet even though the value is there.
                                      Comment
                                      • BigBusiness
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-16-12
                                        • 3226

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Pingpong4590
                                        Nice call
                                        Haters gon hate
                                        Thx man! Like I said, it's extremely rare that I bet a line like this. It's been years, but the line should have been set around -1000 to -1200.

                                        -500 was too good to pass up after an epic early collapse in the olympics.
                                        Comment
                                        • funnyb25
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 07-09-09
                                          • 39663

                                          #21
                                          Like I said in Post #2....she was a lock tonight...good simple cash..
                                          Comment
                                          • jjgold
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 07-20-05
                                            • 388179

                                            #22
                                            Good call
                                            Comment
                                            • lebronjordan
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 08-27-16
                                              • 10

                                              #23
                                              one thing she doesn't do is lose 1st rounds at grand slams
                                              Comment
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