UFC 200 Picks Contest!

[fitguy67]

also, i'm declaring to all Philadelphia-lawyer types who may come along between now and the entry deadline that PARLAYS DO NOT QUALIFY AS BETS FOR THIS CONTEST...

this should have been explicitly stated in the OP, but I saw that every entrant before me was assuming/observing this restriction

sbrBreadman...if this is wrong and parlays are allowed, i'd definitely like to rewrite my ballot before the first throw-down

what effort we expend in the pursuit of 50 bucks

good luck to everyone on their bets this evening

[reigle9]

Hunt itd -140
Hunt KO -119
HUnt r1 +140
hunt lesnar u1.5 -240
anderson +375

Too lazy for the tiebreaker. If I tie, give it to the other guy.

[yisman]

5 Dimes

Lesnar ML +130
Lesnar round 1 +300
Lesnar KO/TKO +410
Lesnar wins inside distance +176
Hunt/Lesnar u1½ rounds -235


tiebreak 23 rounds

[l7ustin]

1.Tate Sub +140
2.Cormier Dec +260
3.Edgar KO +353
4.Zingano Sub +660
5.Hendricks TKO +480

tiebreak 23 rounds
5dimes

[snapperman2]

5 Dimes

Lesnar ML +130
Lesnar round 1 +300
Lesnar KO/TKO +410
Lesnar wins inside distance +176
Hunt/Lesnar u1½ rounds -235


tiebreak 23 rounds

These bets are correlated. If Lesnar wins in round 1, then he will win on the moneyline and inside the distance. This makes it too easy for you to win. If Lesnar wins by KO in round 1, you win all 5 of your bets and will likely win the contest. I don't like that.

[brooks85]

it doesn't matter much, you can't post picks after the event starts for a contest. That is basic stuff. I'm all for his strategy which anyone could have used.

[Optional]

Sat 7/9 1101 Brock Lesnar +135 o1½ +205
11:30PM 1102 Mark Hunt -145 u1½ -235

Sat 7/9 1301 Frankie Edgar -110 o4½ -127
10:30PM 1302 Jose Aldo +100 u4½ +112

Sat 7/9 1501 Julianna Pena +130 o2½ -147
9:30PM 1502 Cat Zingano -140 u2½ +132

Sat 7/9 2001 Thiago Santos +220 o2½ -122
7:00PM 2002 Gegard Mousasi -240 u2½ +107


TB: 30

+435

[brooks85]

does the contest even have 25 entries?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Northcutt Submission (+360) -1u
Gastelum Decision (+230) +2.3u
Zingano KO/TKO (+430) -1u
Aldo Decision (+315) +3.15u
Thiago Santos ML (+231) -1u
TB: 39

5.45 - 3 = +2.45u

[El Nino]

1.) Frankie Edgar by Decision (+265) BookMaker
[ATTACH]90664[/ATTACH]

2). Kelvin Gastelum by Decision (+215) BookMaker
[ATTACH]90666[/ATTACH]

3.) Mark Hunt wins Inside the Distance (-142) 5Dimes
[ATTACH]90668[/ATTACH]

4.) Daniel Cormier Wins by 3 Round Decision (+228) 5Dimes
[ATTACH]90670[/ATTACH]

5.) Cain Velasquez Wins Inside the Distance (-119) 5Dimes
[ATTACH]90672[/ATTACH]

Tie Breaker: 31 Rounds

3-2 +3.01u

[El Nino]

Doubt we need the tie breaker, but there were 28 total rounds started by my quick count.

[fitguy67]

all 5dimes prices:

>Gastelum, DEC +205 W +2.05u
>Pena, DEC +290 W +2.90u
>Browne, DEC +1075 L -1u
>Lesnar/Hunt, GTD +475 W +4.75u
>Edgar, ITD +249 L -1u

total rounds: 28

3-2, +7.7u
____________

BTW, amazing MMAth picture arising from the two WBW results tonight

Rousey beat Tate
but Holm beat Rousey
but Tate beat Holm
but tonight Nunes beat Tate
but Zingano beat Nunes
but tonight Pena beat Zingano

[El Nino]

3-2, +7.7u
____________

BTW, amazing MMAth picture arising from the two WBW results tonight

Rousey beat Tate
but Holm beat Rousey
but Tate beat Holm
but tonight Nunes beat Tate
but Zingano beat Nunes
but tonight Pena beat Zingano

That's why MMAth rarely computes. Good cash on the Lesnar fight. What was Lesnar win by Decision?

[fitguy67]

TL/DR alert

fitting that if Dana & Co. had just given Holm the Immed.RM (one of the very few cases--along with Carlos and perhaps TJ--where it would have actually made some sense...contrary to the normal case of pushing for the one-sided beatdowns like those suffered by Barao, Cain, Weidman, or Ronda to rerun right away, whether anyone wants them or not)...the picture could have very easily remained a nice marketable situation to buy more time with until "the sports' most dominant champion that's ever cowered behind a pillow" could be coaxed to come back from her brilliant acting career (rave reviews currently in for playing the chubby thumb-wrestler in a MetroPCS' production)

but no, Dana had to be a dick and let his petty squabble with Holly's manager get in the way...and now he's stuck with his first openly-Gay/Lesbo champ with the marketability of a dish-cloth but the punching power of George Foreman...so now it's infinitely harder for him to lure the Hip-tossBot back for one more well-paid octagon session (which would double as a great fading-opportunity for sharps to fleece all the "she's back" fans)

i hate all this WWE-style bullshit but do love it when it blows up in their face (god bless you Nate)...my only stake in this bit of UFC stupidity is that I'm holding a "Tate over Rousey"+600 ticket (good till end of this year) from when DSI first hung it a few months ago...what would have been my sharpest "early bird" play ever now turns into a drag on my bankroll

love MMA but hate the UFC's virtual-monopoly over it
___________

don't know what the Brock, DEC play was...but can't figure out why I didn't take it over the smaller-pay GTD...not like Hunto was a threat to grind out a decision, was it?...be a shame if i don't score the life-changing $25 because of it

[brooks85]

cain by decision +328 5d

aldo by decision +320 5d



lesnar wins in rd 1 +320 5d
miller by tko/ko +715 5d

aldo/edgar wins FOTN +350 5d





tb: 33

+11.85

[El Nino]

+11.85

Looks more like 2-3 +7.35u to me

[brooks85]

aww sob, I was too tired and thought this article was a list of winners when I read it last night lol

http://www.mmamania.com/2016/7/9/12126870/bonus-watch-potential-ufc-200-tate-vs-nunes-award-winners-tonight-in

+7.35

[fitguy67]

Looks more like 2-3 +7.35u to me

aww sob, I was too tired and thought this article was a list of winners when I read it last night lol

http://www.mmamania.com/2016/7/9/12126870/bonus-watch-potential-ufc-200-tate-vs-nunes-award-winners-tonight-in

+7.35

the Neederator selflessly crunchin' the numbers in tireless pursuit of accuracy and justice, lol...good catch

both you and brooks are in for a full third of the windfall IF it ends up with me

[Optional]

SBR Breadman

1.Mischa Tate To Win By Submission +150 at Paddy Power

2.Broc Lesner +150 ML at Pinnacle

3. John Jones vs. Daniel Cormier OVER 4.5 Rounds (-143) at BET365

4. Mischa Tate To Win ML -235 at Heritage

5. Jose Aldo To Win ML +102 at Pinnacle

Tie-Breaker - I think there will be 25

-100 +150 -0 -235 +102 = -83

---


Sweep


Travis browne +255 heritage

Daniel Cormier +253 Cris

Joe Louzon -112 Pinnacle

Mousasi -259 Pinnacle

Tate -235 heritage


Tb: 36

-100 +253 +100 +100 -235 = +118

---


Hugo de Naranja

Northcutt Submission (+360)
Gastelum Decision (+230)
Zingano KO/TKO (+430)
Aldo Decision (+315)
Thiago Santos ML (+231)
TB: 35

-100 +230 -100 +315 -100 = +245

---

Slanina


Tate -235 Heritage

Northcutt -330 Heritage

Lesnar +160 Heritage

Brown +255 Heritage

Mousasi -265 5D


-235 +100 +160 -100 +100 = +25

---


MdReach


Jones/Cormier UNDER 4.5 +131 @Bookmaker
Jones WIN in 3rd +1200 @Intertops
Edgar/Aldo UNDER 4.5 EV @JustBet
Lesnar +153 @SportsBet
Northcutt KO Round 1 +300 @PaddyPower

0 +0 -100 +153 -100 = -47

---


Tradeout



Derrick Lewis x 2.16 Pinnacle
Dileno Lopes x 3.05 Pinnacle
Alvaro Herrera x 4.55 Pinnacle
Alan Jouban x 1.73 Pinnacle
Mike Pyle x1.8 Pinnacle


TB 33


+116 -100 -100 +100 -100 = -84


---


Koldazzice

nunes over tate +215
edgar over aldo -115
hunt over lesnor -170
santos over mousasi +225
pena over zingano +155

38


+215 -100 -170 -100 +155 = 0


---

Aggieshawn


Sat 7/9 1101 Brock Lesnar 2.500

11:00PM 1202 Miesha Tate 1.400

Sat 7/9 1301 Frankie Edgar 1.870
11:59PM 1002 Jon Jones 1.333

8:30PM 1702 T.J. Dillashaw 1.244

5dimes


39tb

+150 -250 -115 +0 +100 = -115



---


19th hole

B Lesna/M Hunt u1½ -230
A.Nunes/M.Tate o1½ -235
Gastelum/J.Hendricks o2½ -200
RAssuncao/T.J.Dillashaw o2½ -210
D.Sanchez/J.Lauzon o2½ -240
Total Rounds 32

-230 -235 +100 +100 -240 = -505


---


Jibby

Pending 7/9/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1311 Aldo wins by 5 round decision +315* vs Not Aldo by 5 round decision
Pending 7/9/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1411 Velasquez wins by 3 round decision +328* vs Not Velasquez by 3 round decision
Pending 7/9/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1509 Zingano wins inside distance +211* vs Not Zingano inside distance
Pending 7/9/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1611 Hendricks wins by 3 round decision +170* vs Not Hendricks by 3 round decision
Pending 7/9/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2105 Miller wins inside distance +119* vs Not Miller inside distance


+315 -100 -100 -100 +119 = +134

---

danso

Velasquez / Browne UNDER 1.5 Rounds +100 (Bet365)
Johny Hendricks -112 (Pinnacle)
Gegard Mousasi -255 (Pinnacle)
Raphael Assuncao +335 (Bookmaker)
Santos / Mousasi UNDER 2.5 Rounds +105 (Bookmaker)

TB: 29

+100 -112 +100 -100 +105 = +93


---

firekillex

Sanchez decision +155
Velasquez by decision +328
Mousasi by sub +500
Northcutt tko +165
Dillashaw decision -117
Tiebreaker 26 rounds


-100 -100 -100 -100 +100 = -300

---

Snapperman2

Cain Velasquez -290 at Pinnacle
Brock Lesnar +151 at Pinnacle
Miesha Tate -241 at Pinnacle
TJ Dillashaw -372 at Pinnacle
Frankie Edgar -115 at Pinnacle
24 rounds

+100 +151 -241 +100 -115 = -205

---

Sanity Check

Cat Zingano -150 (5 dimes)
Frankie Edgar -119 (bookmaker)
Kelvin Gastelum -106 (pinnacle)
Travis Browne vs Cain Velasquez Over 1.5 -100 (pinnacle)
TJ Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao Under 2.5 +170 (pinnacle)


-150 -119 +100 -100 -100 = -369


---


El Nino

1.) Frankie Edgar by Decision (+265) BookMaker
Frankie Edgar1.jpg

2). Kelvin Gastelum by Decision (+215) BookMaker
Kelvin Gastelum2.jpg

3.) Mark Hunt wins Inside the Distance (-142) 5Dimes
Mark Hunt3.jpg

4.) Daniel Cormier Wins by 3 Round Decision (+228) 5Dimes
Daniel Cormier4.jpg

5.) Cain Velasquez Wins Inside the Distance (-119) 5Dimes
Cain Velasquez5.jpg

Tie Breaker: 31 Rounds


-100 +215 -142 +228 +100 = +301

---

Beelzebubzy


Edgar KO +400 5dimes
Hunt Round 1 +160 5dimes
Miller Sub +130 5dimes
Assuncao Submission +1275 5dimes
Tate Round 2 +600 5dimes
Tiebreaker 31 rounds


-100 -100 -100 -100 -100 = -500


---

Optional

Sat 7/9 1101 Brock Lesnar +135 o1½ +205
11:30PM 1102 Mark Hunt -145 u1½ -235

Sat 7/9 1301 Frankie Edgar -110 o4½ -127
10:30PM 1302 Jose Aldo +100 u4½ +112

Sat 7/9 1501 Julianna Pena +130 o2½ -147
9:30PM 1502 Cat Zingano -140 u2½ +132

Sat 7/9 2001 Thiago Santos +220 o2½ -122
7:00PM 2002 Gegard Mousasi -240 u2½ +107


TB: 30


+205 +100 +130 +100 -100 =+435

---


Fitguy67

>Gastelum, DEC +205
>Pena, DEC +290
>Browne, DEC +1075
>Lesnar/Hunt, GTD +475
>Edgar, ITD +249

total rounds: 28


+205 +290 -100 +475 -100 = +770


---

Brooks

cain by decision +328 5d

aldo by decision +320 5d

lesnar wins in rd 1 +320 5d
miller by tko/ko +715 5d

aldo/edgar wins FOTN +350 5d

tb: 33


-100 +320 -100 +715 -100 =+735


---

Reigle9

Hunt itd -140
Hunt KO -119
HUnt r1 +140
hunt lesnar u1.5 -240
anderson +375

-140 -119 -100 -240 -100 = -699


---

Yisman

Lesnar ML +130
Lesnar round 1 +300
Lesnar KO/TKO +410
Lesnar wins inside distance +176
Hunt/Lesnar u1½ rounds -235


tiebreak 23 rounds

+130 -100 -100 -100 -235 = -405


---

l7ustin

1.Tate Sub +140
2.Cormier Dec +260
3.Edgar KO +353
4.Zingano Sub +660
5.Hendricks TKO +480

tiebreak 23 rounds


-100 +260 -100 -100 -100 = -140


---




Congrats Fitguy67

[fitguy67]

bread, re: the 25usd prize

can you just zap say 420 full-strength sbr's into my ac--a bit (12%) more than the 375sbr that the going 15sbr=1usd(in sportsbook with 5x roll) would suggest (to account for the rollover drag)

also nicely divisible into three shares at a lucky 140sbr each...all three of us are pros, so would be dead easy to spread the joy this way

[SBR Breadman]

Looks more like 2-3 +7.35u to me

Correct. The Moderator Just Did The Math Based off $100 ML Units 7.35 /$735

[SBR Breadman]

Haha, No PARLAYS! 5 Picks! A 5-Selection Parlay would have Just been counted as 5 Picks - Besides ... Who Would Possibly Hit 5 Separate Parlays, If that were the case!?

[fitguy67]

sbrBreadman,

for future such events, I suggest the following 2 stipulations be made, beyond those that existed this time

1) only single straight-up bets are allowed (ie. no multis/accumulators/parlays)
as if someone were to hit just 1 uber-high-payout multi-teamer, they could easliy demolish all the 4-1 or 5-0 cards in the contest...

any single bets offered by any book you could find on sbr-odds should be allowed...but not any multis/accas/parlays derived therefrom

2) in the same vein, but to a lesser degree...only 1 bet per fight should be allowed to eliminate the sort of correlated layering that snapperman objected to above

thus if a contest specifies a max# of bets on a card to be "x"...then up to "x" bets may be made but no more than one bet may be placed on any given fight on that card

...that is all
__________________________

when can i expect the prize (in rough $1=16.8 full-strength sbr equivalent as I made a case for in the previous post...BTW, thanks for the extra 5 points which i just noticed now!)