"Honey, I Just Obliterated the Close" compendium thread

[fitguy67]

here's a place to post prices you locked in that you are quite confident will end up significantly better than pinnacle's vig-free closing line...

getting a great bargain can be accomplished by one or both of the following
*hitting an outlier price available at another book (getting a good deal "vertically")
*hitting a price at an opportune time (getting a good deal "horizontally") before the close
where time is seen to flow horizontally (along the x-axis) and the selection of prices available at any one time is seen as the vertical spread about pinny's price

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anyhow, to start things off, here's what i just hit using one of the great "square" books (along with bo-dog/-vada) where dogs sometime stick out like a sore thumb

chc/atl: open@-290/+260, ltst@-277/+251 which is -257.9/+257.9 no-vig

which i smashed at sia who are STILL sporting +275 on ATL

[jjgold]

Boston/Minny
Pinny -133/Coast 135

[fitguy67]

a few further notes to anyone contributing data...

1. post what you hit as soon as possible after you hit it, but do take the time to report it clearly as i've done above, stating both the opening and the latest (at time of your finding/hitting it) prices at pinny
and the corresponding no-vig price, which can be calculated quickly using either
http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/ for 2-way bets, appropriate for most US teamsports
http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...culator/3-way/ for 3-way bets such as "1X2" soccer

2. after the event you bought a ticket for kicks off and the line has closed...update the "latest price" into the "closing price"...as this will be the final standard against which your ticket will be compared...and the real-world value of BTCL can be put to the test over the haul

3. finally after the ticket is graded, report it...and the $-effect on a standard "to WIN $100" ticket...and, if you are going to contribute more than just one play...keep a running total, and if a little camaraderie develops, i can work out a Leaderboard for "bragging rights" and perhaps some ante-up points pool

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if you decide to help out and kick in plays that just feel sweet when you submit them...using the discipline of this thread's reporting protocol will sharpen up your game by more fully characterizing your "spidey sense" with solid price/probability/bankroll-change numbers
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my goal will be to see how well Pinny's closing no-vig price is over the long-run as a predictor of performance. i'm developing a spreadsheet that'll keep track of all these "seemed great at the time" plays...and will look at the performance of those plays that ultimately BTCL vs. those that didn't

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perhaps this is too geeky a thread for PT, if so...could the mods move it somewhere more appropriate (but NOT the saloon!)

[fitguy67]

hey JJ,

for the purposes of this egg-head project, i'd like to restrict the tickets to those available somewhere on sbr's price-hub http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/
..
you're saying you found MIN at +135 (considerably better than pinny's current -133/+123 or +/-127.3 no-vig)at some book "Coast"...good catch

i'll put it down as +134 tho' which is available at the BO-family on the sbr-hub

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can you post more info on that book you used...

[Chi_archie]

Good luck getting anyone here to "contribute" in a helpful or meaningful manner


hope it doesn't discourage you, I will follow along

[Brock Landers]

And what are your results here?

[JoeyBagels]

if you want to save yourself a lot of time if you're betting off market numbers at SIA/bodog pinnacle will be the more predictive market on major sports
source: the hundreds of punters who have been booted from SIA/bodog for doing the same thing
SIA caps you at 6k now bodog less
nobody who knows this stuff is going to waste time posting what they bet on sbr
the days of good information being posted or discussed on sbr died in 2006-2007 partially a function of market mechanism partially a function of people realizing they shouldn't post about it

[fitguy67]

0-1, -36.36 ,the amount risked on ATL+275 TO WIN 100 with NVC (no-vig close) +265.02 (-285/+258)...with a theoretical ev (ie. determined independent of the actual result) of +2.734% of risked=(3.75/3.6502)-1...but, i'll note before some1 else does that it certainly had and actual value here of -100% of the amount risked
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this is a long-haul curiosity-driven project, and the thread-reporting is to provide some discipline, so let's put on another, once again from the happy hunting ground of sia

soccer EUCH, pol X nir, X+290 at sia (vs.no-vig X@+274.45 based on -146/+267/+548)

in the time i took to post this, it's drifted a bit to +287...but it's still an intentionally-opinionated "sore thumb" line there...and there's a great chance of it ending up officially +ev using pinny's no-vig close as the benchmark

[The Kraken]

And what are your results here?

After 1 posted play by the OP, and just six hours after the thread was created, Brock Fukking Landers is asking "what are the results"

WTF Brock, Seriously?

One fukking play has been posted and you're asking already about the results???????



fukk

[TheMoneyShot]

Brock on top of things early

[fitguy67]

^thanks for helping out with that, guyz...initial has turned to

...don't think this really belongs as a thread in PT tbh...prob better as a small-ish "neighbourhood alert" DM-based system among peeps hip to the wisdom of "hammering edges" when they pop up rather than "just pick winnaz' bro...no chalk on winnaz!"