Anyone betting Faber tonight in UFC 199?

[Reload]

My UFC underdog picks can be ass backwards sometimes, but Faber keeps looking like an overlay here. Looked good at the weigh in's.

Anyone else like the "California Kid?"

[lokihayze]

I am bro. I just posted a huge ass long post about it I'll hit copy and paste on it here for you
I'm excited about this fight because I think bisping and faber are too totally overlooked underdogs here.
I've won big on underdogs before (lost as well) but I think at least one of them spells an upset, if not two of them.
Dom cruz has barely fought in 4 years. He's had 2 ACL knee repairs and the recovery than comes with it. People say he looked better than ever against tj but that's not exactly true. Tj kept trying to load up on his kicks which Dom would move out of the way of.
If you haven't noticed or can't remember, rewatch the fight you'll see what I mean. Instead of peppering him with strikes, knees and elbows to get in closer, he was looking for the big long range KO. Faber knows that's not how you beat Dom, Dom is tricky and even Rogan was saying mid fight you can't load up on the kicks like this and questioning why tj was doing it.
Anyway, if you watch the way Dom moves in 2011 versus the TJ fight he HAS gotten slower. Go and watch the fights on a laptop and an iPad for instance next to each other and watch how quick he moved in 2011 compared to now.
Doms training partners aren't as high caliber as urijahs either NOR do they have a close brotherly bond with him and want him to succeed the way the TAM fighters do. Urijah has Cody no love who Is a boxing wizard in his camps along with mendes, master thong and a plethora of UFC up and coming greats while cruz's alliance MMA has middle of the range fighters (no disrespect intended) like bec Rawlings, cat zingano etc etc you get the drift.
Dom doesn't seem to get on with many people as his huge ego and borderline Aspergers turns people off him. He likes people around him who are under him where as Urijah wants people to achieve greatness and is proud of his fellow fighters and friends.
So you have two totally different people who other people react to in completely different ways, people like to hang with Urijah where as they tolerate cruz.
I have a point to all this as you will shortly see.
People say Urijah isn't progressing as a fighter so let's examine that. If you look at the Frankie Saenz fight he actually has a newish tool he didn't implement like before when he fought Dom. Elbows. He gets in close and as they're holding him he starts swinging the elbows and FOOTWORK!
He's obviously taken a few classes from our pal Cody.
He's still light on his feet and moves around like before only now he's smashing them inside the clinch with elbows and he is harder to hit if you look at the way is footwork has evolved and his head movements.
Ok now let's move on to Dom. He's got his same game he's had only now he's more cautious obviously because of his weak knees which can be damaged again quite easily.
He admitted after the TJ foot he injured his foot and he was cagey about it BUT we Know he rolled his foot and it was a bad sprain. The problem with injuries on your legs like this is they fix one thing and it's like a domino effect from then on. They fixed my feet when I was a teenager narrowly as a result it affected my knees and for the first time ever I started dislocating my knee randomly and a specialist told me that's common. You break your foot and get it repaired for instance and it's common for knee problems to surface because your body is used to walking a certain way and then you Throw it off a bit by adjusting the way you walk to accomodate a break, ripped tendon etc and then your knee will be affected Kwim? My specialist said to me I haven't used and relied on my knee and surrounding muscle as much as I did after they did my feet, so it's years behind the rest of my body as far as development goes.
So I'm not surprised doms first fight his knee held out but he rolled his foot and got a sprain. Story of my life. Specialists said it happens to nearly every case they see.
Anyway, doms NOT as fast as he used to be and tj would have won that split decision if he had stopped trying to load up and instead gone in hard at him throwing combinations and getting in close.
Dom won't want to get Urijah on the ground as much as he did TJ because faber is a fantastic wrestler and submission artist, Dom won't want to be submitted again no doubt and will be more hesitant to scramble with faber because of that, especially after experiencing a loss to faber via sub previously. So Dom will want to keep it on the feet and do his usual hit, duck and run. Problem is, faber was always getting him on the way out last time (check the tape) and now he's got those evil elbows which he seems VERY efficient with.
His timing and striking has come along as far as accuracy and Cody is very much partly responsible for that.
No love stood 31-1 as a boxer before hitting MMA full time.
So doms legs are his weakness BUT not just his knees, his feet. His base to work from. I'm speaking from extensive personal experience, from talking to others like me doing rehab and specialists I had to see every week for 12 months after.
Urijah is going to target his legs via taking him down or kicks, and keep in mind his feet are now weaker now to begin with. He will be easier to take down, crank a submission and wrestle with as well as he wont be able to bounce around AS easily. You can see this in the fight with Tj compared to 2011 with Urijah.
Tj's attack centred on him kicking and punching at his head, he can still move his head around like a meerkat it's his legs which are the issue.
Take downs for Dom are a huge risk as he is at least 10x more likely to blow his knee out again as what another fighter are in the same position.
If Urijah sweeps him and takes him
Down a few times his legs are going to be SHOT, wrestlers are the WORST to go against with a bad knee. Mendes ripped Conors ACL off too in their fight. It's rough on the knees both from the angle that you target them for a take down, and to fight the take down you have to use your knees a lot to get back up.
Tj's game plan centred around targeting his head because as Dom moved to the left (as is instinctive for him) in theory Tj's kick should have been there waiting for him which would have been a highlight reel knockout. I think even rogan mentions this in the Tj-cruz fight.
The thing is, doms head is going to be the worst place to try hit as he has great reflexes and can move quick DESPITE his previous injuries and he doesn't have injuries from his torso up. However fabers skill set is text book what you'd need to beat Dom. Leg kicks, take downs and elbows on the way out when Dom comes in for his hit and run routine.
Faber is a live dog and at the odds he's paying, worth a wager.
Next we have bisping. Now if you set up two screens, two laptops or whatever side by side and watch bisping fighting anyone including Luke and then Luke fighting anyone even Weidman, Luke is NOT quick and not as quick as bisping.
Best bet is to sit Weidman/ rockhold and bisping/silva next to each other and watch the tape. Bisping keeps up with silva's movements and often OUTclassed him as far as quick reflexes go.
Bisping is quick and rockhold really isn't.
He came into the rockhold fight with an eye Injruy AND he got head butt in the SAME eye early on by rockhold and it cut open.
Luke also overreacts when he gets tagged. Every single time he gets tagged he comes lunging head over hips just like Aldo did when Conor knocked his head off.
Go and have a look at the bisping fight with him and every time bisping gets him a good one he rushes at him throwing wildly.
Bisping also keeps himself close enough to stop Luke really teeing off on him with the kicks too. As a wrestler Weidman needed room to shoot but bisping likes to get inside the pocket where Luke can't kick him and where bisping is the far better boxer.
Luke turned down fighting with Jacare too as J said he would fight like and he would put off surgery, Luke said no and said he would take bisping instead and that's because he thinks bisping is the easier fight.
Why would someone who thinks they're the best want the easiest fight?
Bisping wants the best fighters, Luke wants the best chance of keeping his belt.
Not sure if Luke is lying about a leg Injury which is likely as it seems stupid to admit to having an injury and not being able to kick, BUT if he does have an Injury and can't kick as well, consider the fact that when he was at 100% bisping kept catching his kicks :/ and so if all he really has is his footwork, boxing and ground game and no kicks, then bisping should be a solid bet here as he has the better ground game according to some, better footwork, he's quicker and he's a better boxer.
Food for thought anyway, I'm going to throw them both in a few parlays.

[Itsamazing777]

Isn't he old now

[BIGDAY]

Take him by dec if you do. Just my opinion.

[lokihayze]

Faber? 6 years older than Dom. Doms 30 faber 36. Floyd mayweather was 38 when he beat PacMan. considering Dom has had 2 ACL replacements from cadavers including one that rejected which is PAINFUL as hell and would add to his recovery time quite a bit and Urijah has had his legs kicked to purple mush from Aldo and needed no surgery, I agree with Urijah when he says cruz has the broken old man body not him.

[lokihayze]

Man personally I wouldn't touch faber props because with his newly acquired elbow game and with the amount of times he tagged cruz on the way out last time with punches, which I have no doubt he will replace with hard elbows this time, he could just as likely catch him with a fight ending unexpected elbow to the face or submission.
I wouldn't touch the props on that fight personally.

[gauchojake]

Born in Isla Vista, CA. Of course you take him.

[El Nino]

Team Alpha FAIL. Never bet on Cruz when the UFC belt is on the line.

[jjgold]

pass

UFc for suckers

we are finding that out

[gauchojake]

Team Alpha FAIL. Never bet on Cruz when the UFC belt is on the line.

[El Nino]

Gauchoer gets it.

[LBfightlife]

I'll say one thing, if you watch the Weigh in recaps, the interview Rockhold backstage, he all emotional after the weigh ins with Bisbing, looks like he is about to cry. Bisbing is in his head pretty sure of that.

[UncleChael]

URIJAH FABER!!
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5wBTdfAkqGU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Unwritten Law]

I'm taking Cali Kid. Not only does Faber look in great shape, the confidence is at its peak, and seems like he may realize this long awaiting UFC gold strap. I thought Dom looked good in his return vs TJ but wasn't overly impressed, and I can't trust that fact that he's so injury prone. People like to say how Faber is zero for whatever in UFC title fights, but when you think about it, the odds of him winning is greater each time he fights for the title. I'm not taking him just because I think the "odds" gets better each time, he appears to be physically and mentally prepared.

All cylinders rolling for TAM, from Paige starring in DWTS, Cody headlining the main event last week and getting a huge victory. Lots of momentum and Faber is the leader of TAM. Not buying all the media hype but I really think Dom's days are numbered. Can definitely see Cali Kid getting that belt today!

[GunShard]

The only way Faber wins is by submission.
Cruz by decision is the most likely outcome.

[Heyeverybody99]

[QUOTE=Cruz by decision is the most likely outcome.[/QUOTE]

This is the kind of expert analysis I expect from sbr.

[Kermit]

I have $75 on Faber

[reigle9]

No. That's retarded. I'd think of a better word, but it doesn't deserve it. The fact faber gets shot 3795907521354 for no reason makes me care less about the ufc than when I stopped caring and betting it.

[reigle9]

Team Alpha FAIL. Never bet on Cruz when the UFC belt is on the line.

This post in contradictory and is why if you listen to random idiots on the internet, I hope you lose your $200 BR as fast as possible so I never have to read your shit again.

[reigle9]

I'll say one thing, if you watch the Weigh in recaps, the interview Rockhold backstage, he all emotional after the weigh ins with Bisbing, looks like he is about to cry. Bisbing is in his head pretty sure of that.

weigh-ins were fake

jesus christ

stop betting!!!!!!!!!!! THAT GOES FOR EVERYONE

[TheHaus]

I am bro. I just posted a huge ass long post about it I'll hit copy and paste on it here for you
I'm excited about this fight because I think bisping and faber are too totally overlooked underdogs here.
I've won big on underdogs before (lost as well) but I think at least one of them spells an upset, if not two of them.
Dom cruz has barely fought in 4 years. He's had 2 ACL knee repairs and the recovery than comes with it. People say he looked better than ever against tj but that's not exactly true. Tj kept trying to load up on his kicks which Dom would move out of the way of.
If you haven't noticed or can't remember, rewatch the fight you'll see what I mean. Instead of peppering him with strikes, knees and elbows to get in closer, he was looking for the big long range KO. Faber knows that's not how you beat Dom, Dom is tricky and even Rogan was saying mid fight you can't load up on the kicks like this and questioning why tj was doing it.
Anyway, if you watch the way Dom moves in 2011 versus the TJ fight he HAS gotten slower. Go and watch the fights on a laptop and an iPad for instance next to each other and watch how quick he moved in 2011 compared to now.
Doms training partners aren't as high caliber as urijahs either NOR do they have a close brotherly bond with him and want him to succeed the way the TAM fighters do. Urijah has Cody no love who Is a boxing wizard in his camps along with mendes, master thong and a plethora of UFC up and coming greats while cruz's alliance MMA has middle of the range fighters (no disrespect intended) like bec Rawlings, cat zingano etc etc you get the drift.
Dom doesn't seem to get on with many people as his huge ego and borderline Aspergers turns people off him. He likes people around him who are under him where as Urijah wants people to achieve greatness and is proud of his fellow fighters and friends.
So you have two totally different people who other people react to in completely different ways, people like to hang with Urijah where as they tolerate cruz.
I have a point to all this as you will shortly see.
People say Urijah isn't progressing as a fighter so let's examine that. If you look at the Frankie Saenz fight he actually has a newish tool he didn't implement like before when he fought Dom. Elbows. He gets in close and as they're holding him he starts swinging the elbows and FOOTWORK!
He's obviously taken a few classes from our pal Cody.
He's still light on his feet and moves around like before only now he's smashing them inside the clinch with elbows and he is harder to hit if you look at the way is footwork has evolved and his head movements.
Ok now let's move on to Dom. He's got his same game he's had only now he's more cautious obviously because of his weak knees which can be damaged again quite easily.
He admitted after the TJ foot he injured his foot and he was cagey about it BUT we Know he rolled his foot and it was a bad sprain. The problem with injuries on your legs like this is they fix one thing and it's like a domino effect from then on. They fixed my feet when I was a teenager narrowly as a result it affected my knees and for the first time ever I started dislocating my knee randomly and a specialist told me that's common. You break your foot and get it repaired for instance and it's common for knee problems to surface because your body is used to walking a certain way and then you Throw it off a bit by adjusting the way you walk to accomodate a break, ripped tendon etc and then your knee will be affected Kwim? My specialist said to me I haven't used and relied on my knee and surrounding muscle as much as I did after they did my feet, so it's years behind the rest of my body as far as development goes.
So I'm not surprised doms first fight his knee held out but he rolled his foot and got a sprain. Story of my life. Specialists said it happens to nearly every case they see.
Anyway, doms NOT as fast as he used to be and tj would have won that split decision if he had stopped trying to load up and instead gone in hard at him throwing combinations and getting in close.
Dom won't want to get Urijah on the ground as much as he did TJ because faber is a fantastic wrestler and submission artist, Dom won't want to be submitted again no doubt and will be more hesitant to scramble with faber because of that, especially after experiencing a loss to faber via sub previously. So Dom will want to keep it on the feet and do his usual hit, duck and run. Problem is, faber was always getting him on the way out last time (check the tape) and now he's got those evil elbows which he seems VERY efficient with.
His timing and striking has come along as far as accuracy and Cody is very much partly responsible for that.
No love stood 31-1 as a boxer before hitting MMA full time.
So doms legs are his weakness BUT not just his knees, his feet. His base to work from. I'm speaking from extensive personal experience, from talking to others like me doing rehab and specialists I had to see every week for 12 months after.
Urijah is going to target his legs via taking him down or kicks, and keep in mind his feet are now weaker now to begin with. He will be easier to take down, crank a submission and wrestle with as well as he wont be able to bounce around AS easily. You can see this in the fight with Tj compared to 2011 with Urijah.
Tj's attack centred on him kicking and punching at his head, he can still move his head around like a meerkat it's his legs which are the issue.
Take downs for Dom are a huge risk as he is at least 10x more likely to blow his knee out again as what another fighter are in the same position.
If Urijah sweeps him and takes him
Down a few times his legs are going to be SHOT, wrestlers are the WORST to go against with a bad knee. Mendes ripped Conors ACL off too in their fight. It's rough on the knees both from the angle that you target them for a take down, and to fight the take down you have to use your knees a lot to get back up.
Tj's game plan centred around targeting his head because as Dom moved to the left (as is instinctive for him) in theory Tj's kick should have been there waiting for him which would have been a highlight reel knockout. I think even rogan mentions this in the Tj-cruz fight.
The thing is, doms head is going to be the worst place to try hit as he has great reflexes and can move quick DESPITE his previous injuries and he doesn't have injuries from his torso up. However fabers skill set is text book what you'd need to beat Dom. Leg kicks, take downs and elbows on the way out when Dom comes in for his hit and run routine.
Faber is a live dog and at the odds he's paying, worth a wager.
Next we have bisping. Now if you set up two screens, two laptops or whatever side by side and watch bisping fighting anyone including Luke and then Luke fighting anyone even Weidman, Luke is NOT quick and not as quick as bisping.
Best bet is to sit Weidman/ rockhold and bisping/silva next to each other and watch the tape. Bisping keeps up with silva's movements and often OUTclassed him as far as quick reflexes go.
Bisping is quick and rockhold really isn't.
He came into the rockhold fight with an eye Injruy AND he got head butt in the SAME eye early on by rockhold and it cut open.
Luke also overreacts when he gets tagged. Every single time he gets tagged he comes lunging head over hips just like Aldo did when Conor knocked his head off.
Go and have a look at the bisping fight with him and every time bisping gets him a good one he rushes at him throwing wildly.
Bisping also keeps himself close enough to stop Luke really teeing off on him with the kicks too. As a wrestler Weidman needed room to shoot but bisping likes to get inside the pocket where Luke can't kick him and where bisping is the far better boxer.
Luke turned down fighting with Jacare too as J said he would fight like and he would put off surgery, Luke said no and said he would take bisping instead and that's because he thinks bisping is the easier fight.
Why would someone who thinks they're the best want the easiest fight?
Bisping wants the best fighters, Luke wants the best chance of keeping his belt.
Not sure if Luke is lying about a leg Injury which is likely as it seems stupid to admit to having an injury and not being able to kick, BUT if he does have an Injury and can't kick as well, consider the fact that when he was at 100% bisping kept catching his kicks :/ and so if all he really has is his footwork, boxing and ground game and no kicks, then bisping should be a solid bet here as he has the better ground game according to some, better footwork, he's quicker and he's a better boxer.
Food for thought anyway, I'm going to throw them both in a few parlays.

any prop for faber to go decision or TKO?

thoughts man

[jjgold]

Guys watch odds...there is rigging in some of these matches

[El Nino]

This post in contradictory and is why if you listen to random idiots on the internet, I hope you lose your $200 BR as fast as possible so I never have to read your shit again.

Blow me, kid. I obviously meant Faber re: Team Alpha Fail. $200 BR Get real.

[GunShard]

This is the kind of expert analysis I expect from sbr.

I said Cruz will win by decision and he did. You know nothing.