Jays only -120 at home?

[CanuckG]

Happ off a gem. 12-1 with a 1.68 era his last 16 starts. Two quality starts vs the Rays only to have the BP blow it. Only reason I can think of is because of the brawl last night.

[LT Profits]

Big pitching edge for Rays.

[CanuckG]

Big pitching edge for Rays.

Drew got smacked around by Seattle. Happ until he cools down is hard to fade at this line. Joey bats and Co. Probably banged up a bit.

[kobi_j]

I'm leaning on Toronto. Will there be any suspensions from yesterday's fight?

[LT Profits]

Drew got smacked around by Seattle. Happ until he cools down is hard to fade at this line. Joey bats and Co. Probably banged up a bit.

You are looking at one game, Smyly has been Rays best pitcher this year far outperforming Archer, he is approaching stud status with his 10.48 strikeouts vs. 1.61 walks per nine innings. Happ is only decent and nothing more, his 4.35 xFIP belies the 2.05 ERA. He pitches to a lot of contact with only 5.59 strikeouts per nine, so that magnifies the rather low .277 BABIP allowed, and he has been extremely lucky with his 89.9% strand rate.

To be clear, I have no bet on this game nor do I intend to, I am just explaining the reasoning behind the line.

[RollinDo]

Smiley is average - Happ is very good...as solid as they come this season.
Line is whacked...probably one to stay away from because we don't know something...maybe some suspensions.

[LT Profits]

Smiley is average - Happ is very good

It is exactly the opposite. I already explained why.

[44 Mag]

It is exactly the opposite. I already explained why.

a Bill James advocate ???

[DeathAdder]

Happ very underrated. Good re-sign by Jays to bring him back in the fold.

[kidcudi92]

"Smyly career at Rogers Center is 11 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 0 ER."

[RollinDo]

It is exactly the opposite. I already explained why.

Ok - didn't see that LT...maybe I don't give Smiley credit, but he may get blasted by Jays.
Happ just doesn't allow big innings and has a 2.00 ERA in 20 innings in BlueJays stadium. Guy has allowed 3 runs just once all season in going at least 6 innings each start - that is average???

[swordsandtequila]

It is exactly the opposite. I already explained why.

Come on LT, Smiley is 1-4. We all know won-loss record is the only stat that counts

[homerbush]

Nice anaylsys LT most of the other posters can't get past only comparing current YTD ERA as their only way of handicapping. Or the guy above that says Happ owns the Rays which really it is quite the opposite.

[homerbush]

Ok - didn't see that LT...maybe I don't give Smiley credit, but he may get blasted by Jays.
Happ just doesn't allow big innings and has a 2.00 ERA in 20 innings in BlueJays stadium. Guy has allowed 3 runs just once all season in going at least 6 innings each start - that is average???

stop focusing on ERA.. Look at what LT said about the xFIP and do a google search and figure out why Happ's ERA is mostly meaningless.

[LT Profits]

Come on LT, Smiley is 1-4. We all know won-loss record is the only stat that counts

[CanuckG]

You are looking at one game, Smyly has been Rays best pitcher this year far outperforming Archer, he is approaching stud status with his 10.48 strikeouts vs. 1.61 walks per nine innings. Happ is only decent and nothing more, his 4.35 xFIP belies the 2.05 ERA. He pitches to a lot of contact with only 5.59 strikeouts per nine, so that magnifies the rather low .277 BABIP allowed, and he has been extremely lucky with his 89.9% strand rate.

To be clear, I have no bet on this game nor do I intend to, I am just explaining the reasoning behind the line.

Rays have no bats.

[jjgold]

You can make a case is no dominant teams in baseball anymore so taking chalk is never advise

[RollinDo]

stop focusing on ERA.. Look at what LT said about the xFIP and do a google search and figure out why Happ's ERA is mostly meaningless.

Ok - so I will overlook the ERA of 2.00 in Rogers stadium and 3-0 home record and go all in on TB, as Happ will get absolutely rocked tonight, as his first 7 games were a total fluke.

[44 Mag]

Ok - so I will overlook the ERA of 2.00 in Rogers stadium and 3-0 home record and go all in on TB, as Happ will get absolutely rocked tonight, as his first 7 games were a total fluke.

Now remember, you are now dealing with all experts and "professionals". You should heed their warnings and advice, especially since they have no wager on the game itself, just advice ????

[No coincidences]

Smiley is average - Happ is very good...as solid as they come this season.

No.

[t-wizzle]

Seems to reflect a lineup with some backups playing today.

[RollinDo]

Now remember, you are now dealing with all experts and "professionals". You should heed their warnings and advice, especially since they have no wager on the game itself, just advice ????

Yeah whatever...I am leaning Jays, but not sure - only thing that concerns me is the hangover from yesterday's loss and brawl in Texas.
We saw how Seattle was affected yesterday after blowing a 9th inning lead the night before with Angels.

[44 Mag]

Yeah whatever...I am leaning Jays, but not sure - only thing that concerns me is the hangover from yesterday's loss and brawl in Texas.
We saw how Seattle was affected yesterday after blowing a 9th inning lead the night before with Angels.

well, GL in whatever you decide in that game, sounds to me like TB will kill Toronto. Besides, this isn't even your thread.

[RollinDo]

well, GL in whatever you decide in that game, sounds to me like TB will kill Toronto. Besides, this isn't even your thread.

True - I'm done trying to make any sense...after all, I don't know mLb that well I admit.
Focusing on nhL game now. GL bud.
Be sure to watch all the games so that you don't get screwed by guys making errors.

[LT Profits]

Rays have no bats.

Which is one key reason why I have no play on this game, as I said. The Blue Jays have edges in a lot of categories here, but the starting pitchers is not one of them and that is what the line is primarily set on.

[44 Mag]

True - I'm done trying to make any sense...after all, I don't know mLb that well I admit.
Focusing on nhL game now. GL bud.
Be sure to watch all the games so that you don't get screwed by guys making errors.

sent you a PM

[KRIT]

Line does seem short. Rays lineup is putrid, but books like Smyly to bounce back. Happ is due to regress, there is a reason why he's been an average pitcher his entire career.

[jjgold]

Toronto seems a little overrated this year

Pass on game men

[CanuckG]

We now know why. Lines do say it all.

[No coincidences]

We now know why. Lines do say it all.

Happ-less.

[posey_mvp]

Still think Happ is better? Smyly is underrated.. Looks like Rays bats are doing fine

[Ghenghis Kahn]

this guy is sharp as a fukking butter knife.

[JArrieta49]

this guy is sharp as a fukking butter knife.

A butter knife is still much sharper than most objects.

[drfunkmaster]

jays garbage team...

[texhooper]

This is a...uh...looks like this isn't going to plan. If they can cut it to 8 by the 6th, there might be an outside shot of a comeback. I wish you guys luck.