Interesting rare NBA situation

Lex_icon · 03-24-16, 06:19 PM

Bulls starting lineup: Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Cristiano Felício and Taj Gibson

lakerboy · 03-24-16, 06:24 PM

Grab some more at -3.5.

IBetYou · 03-24-16, 06:26 PM

If felicio doesn't play well tonight he can suck my d1ck haha

(i amuse myself

)

KVB · 03-24-16, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Every game has the same exact chance of winning as far as pointspread no matter what trend is out there

Only if the markets are fairly efficient. When the books intentionally give the bettors a spread that is off, in order to take a position, the probablility changes drastically.

While covering the spread is a yes or no proposition, and it's supposed to make the game a 50-50 proposition, it simply isn't always true.

This is a contentious point, but usually for those who are unable to create a forecast that is ahead of the market.

My analysis indicates that the spread itself is pretty sharp from 3.5 to 4.5 and I wouldn't be surprised if this game pushes the 4 or 5 point.

My metrics indicate and it is my opinion that late Chicago backers getting -3.5 are in a far better spot this game than an ordinary -4 or -5 backer getting -3.5 in an "ordinary" NBA situtation.

Good Luck.

jjgold · 03-24-16, 06:35 PM

I think the Knicks can win outright

Always scary going against home teams in NBA regardless of record

SharpAngles · 03-24-16, 06:36 PM

Gibson/Mirotic fill in nicely for Pau.

Obviously would rather be backing a better road team but I still like the spot.

Would've waited if I knew I'd lose a point but you win some you lose some there

blackHIPPY · 03-24-16, 06:44 PM

Knicks come out hittin!

hedgejob · 03-24-16, 07:12 PM

Big mistake getting rid of Thibs

Don_Omarion · 03-24-16, 07:38 PM

well seems I will take Knicks ML now @-170 with my -200 Bulls ML to get back at least half of the lost UNIT

IBetYou · 03-24-16, 07:52 PM

pau gasol said he will base his FA decision on how will the Bulls closed out the season. Looks like he's a gonner ...to New York?

jjgold · 03-24-16, 07:53 PM

Gasol another loser

Nobody wants him

Seaweed · 03-24-16, 08:07 PM

Buried

grease lightnin · 03-24-16, 08:13 PM

Why did I tail? Every time I blindly tail some shit on this forum, I lose.

Miavia · 03-24-16, 08:23 PM

Damn...

SharpAngles · 03-24-16, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Why did I tail? Every time I blindly tail some shit on this forum, I lose.

Why did I post? Every time I post some shit in players talk, I lose.

IlluminatedOne · 03-24-16, 08:37 PM

Chicago got smoked, almost wire 2 wire for NY.

lakerboy · 03-24-16, 08:45 PM

Once again trends prove to be wrong

Seaweed · 03-24-16, 08:46 PM

Cost me a parlay

DigBick86 · 03-24-16, 08:52 PM

They really ****** me had them ML in a 5 team parley paying over 5k but still up today after hitting a +500

jjgold · 03-24-16, 08:53 PM

Home team

KVB · 03-24-16, 09:03 PM

Home team indeed.

Don_Omarion · 03-24-16, 09:09 PM

0.4 Unit loss , after I threw 1 Unit on NYK at half-time @-166 .. so both ML costed me 0.4 Unit ..

a lesson to remember

IBetYou · 03-24-16, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by Don_Omarion

0.4 Unit loss , after I threw 1 Unit on NYK at half-time @-166 .. so both ML costed me 0.4 Unit ..

a lesson to remember

But what's the lesson? Fade yourself, or stay the penetrate away from betting all together?

NJsportsGuy732 · 03-24-16, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Once again trends prove to be wrong

Good call LB

The Giant · 03-24-16, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Backspace
My metrics indicate and it is my opinion that late Chicago backers getting -3.5 are in a far better spot this game than an ordinary -4 or -5 backer getting -3.5 in an "ordinary" NBA situtation.

These metrics of yours came to the conclusion that it's better to hit more advantageous numbers? I'm impressed.

tatddy · 03-24-16, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

These metrics of yours came to the conclusion that it's better to hit more advantageous numbers? I'm impressed.

coolguy73739 · 03-24-16, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Home team

Hats off Sir !
Great foresight !! Too good.

KVB · 03-24-16, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

These metrics of yours came to the conclusion that it's better to hit more advantageous numbers? I'm impressed.

Read it again Giant. I said much more than that. There is a big picture that helps us decide the value of points. This is what you are referring to.

Well, that big picture is made up of many smaller pictures and I'm saying that in the short term the half to one and a half point presented is worth more than it will be when measured over the long term.

I know you think you understand what you thought I wrote but I'm not sure you realize that you didn't understand what I meant.

The Giant · 03-24-16, 09:46 PM

KVB · 03-24-16, 09:50 PM

Dang Giant, you are flush with points. Are you still in debt?

The Giant · 03-24-16, 10:05 PM

Yes sir. Debt-free as of last week.

KVB · 03-24-16, 10:07 PM

IBetYou · 03-24-16, 11:37 PM

KVB you never cease to amuse me with that twaddle.

To suggest bookies pick sides in a game... As if it were easy. At what level exactly? Some bookie clerk at front office at Will-Hill or Bet365 making the pick, or some consultant in Vegas whispering advice to various bookies across the globe? Setting the lines is easy - I can do it my sleep! - and so that's what they stick with. They don't lose money doing this. Picking winners is phackin difficult, so they steer well clear of it.

jjgold · 03-25-16, 12:23 AM

The best handicappers do not use statistics or trends

blackHIPPY · 03-25-16, 09:12 AM

i sure wish i didnt know about this interesting rare situation