Duke -10

[Feeser]

Listen, I hate Duke just as much as the next guy, and there would be nothing that would make me more happy then to see them lose. However, it seems everyone is on UNC Wilm and honestly I just don't see it happening. I'm going to roll with Duke -10, there will be upsets today but just not here.

Thoughts?

[DOM_Toretto]

Agree

[Decide]

Passing but if I was forced Duke is the play.

[Ratpack]

duke wins today but loses to baylor on saturday

[jjgold]

Duke struggling like usual

[unde0087]

Not a good start, 14% from three and missed half their free throws

[PorkChop]

Just pounded the F out of them -3.5.

The three's will fall in 2nd Half.

[mikemca]

duke wins today but loses to YALE on saturday

better this way

[Mac4Lyfe]

Duke looks like shit so far and they're getting all the calls. Some of these calls are fukking ridiculous and I'm on Duke.

The refs have already cashed their Duke checks.

[INVEGA MAN]

Thank God they are getting the calls or they would be losing by 10

[MUHerd37]

Down 3. Could have been a lot worse.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Excellent play to the end the half for Duke.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Down 3. Could have been a lot worse.

Should have been a lot worse.

UNC had 13 fouls, half of them ticky tack.

[unde0087]

The question is, how long can UNCW keep hitting shots at that rate, especially the 3 ball. They are hitting everything

[unde0087]

Should have been a lot worse.

UNC had 13 fouls, half of them ticky tack.

This could be expected as the first 4 games the refs called everything a foul.

[Plaza23]

All Duke in the 2nd half. Wilmington fouls too much and they can't keep up their hot shooting. Only up 3 and they finished that half shooting 12/17.

[PorkChop]

UNCW shooting 51.8 from field and 50.0 from three point land. Duke under 30.

Lets all freak out America!

[frogsrangers]

Leaning toward Duke -2 first 5 minutes of 2nd half.... any other halftime wagers?

[frogsrangers]

All Duke in the 2nd half. Wilmington fouls too much and they can't keep up their hot shooting. Only up 3 and they finished that half shooting 12/17.

Yeah points in the paint is what worries me about UNCW, made too many jumpers. Eventually those shots stop falling

[Courtesywipe]

I am taking points against chalk as much as possible thru this tournament. It was hard to lay cash against Duke. I did it and Im liking it so far!!

[Plaza23]

Duke actually played a decent half. They only had 4 turnovers and won fouls 6-13.

If Wilmington can win this game shooting out of their minds then more power to them, but Duke 2nd half -3 (-280) seems like a gift.

Basically a ML of Duke -280 at this point, when they opened the game at -600 is great value. Nothing about this game to this point should change your mind if you thought Duke would win before the game.

[KVB]

I had UNCWilm plus points and to win the first half.

My sharper forecast has UNCWilm winning this game by 5 points. Unsophisticaed and even non predictive models give Duke, at best, a 7 point win this game.

I realize this game has already begun and don't normally give my forecasts during the game but if you built a forecast or prediction that gives Duke a larger than 10 point win, regardless of the result of the game, you might consider adjusting your numbers.

I rarely say something like this, realize there are many ways to handicap and some extreme numbers will come with even the sharpest forecasts, but if bettors have predicted Duke by double digits, I have indications that they are following bad metrics and should adjust the numbers.

Good Luck.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Duke actually played a decent half. They only had 4 turnovers and won fouls 6-13.

If Wilmington can win this game shooting out of their minds then more power to them, but Duke 2nd half -3 (-280) seems like a gift.

Basically a ML of Duke -280 at this point, when they opened the game at -600 is great value. Nothing about this game to this point should change your mind if you thought Duke would win before the game.

I agree. UNC played out of their minds are only up 3. I don't see this continuing.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Still ticky tack calls. Now one on Duke. That was a clean ass block, Plumlee pushed him a bit on the follow through but you have to let that shit go refs. Damn, I hate when the refs are trying to be more important than the players.

How does UNCW always get these huge ass players. A few years ago they had another giant. This Getty's guy looks like a huge lumberjack. Now he gets a ticky tack foul too. Fukk off refs, swallow your damn whistles.

[TPowell]

Duke -260 on the ML here. Think they'll end up covering this game honestly

[TPowell]

4 on the big guy. Damn, should have put some on the spread too

[Mac4Lyfe]

What the hell are the refs looking at? Is grabbing the arm a fukking flagrant? Geez these bitches are about to make me turn this shit.

[ATLIEN6]

I had UNCWilm plus points and to win the first half.

My sharper forecast has UNCWilm winning this game by 5 points. Unsophisticaed and even non predictive models give Duke, at best, a 7 point win this game.

I realize this game has already begun and don't normally give my forecasts during the game but if you built a forecast or prediction that gives Duke a larger than 10 point win, regardless of the result of the game, you might consider adjusting your numbers.

I rarely say something like this, realize there are many ways to handicap and some extreme numbers will come with even the sharpest forecasts, but if bettors have predicted Duke by double digits, I have indications that they are following bad metrics and should adjust the numbers.

Good Luck.

I really wish you would make a thread.. i always appreciate/look for your insight

[Mac4Lyfe]

OMG - Plumlee just blew on a guy and the refs called foul. Now another foul on the other side. This shit is a foul every 30 seconds.

The college game is really becoming an awful watch.

[Mac4Lyfe]

5 fouls on UNCW in 4 minutes. What kind of shit is this? These refs need to have their asses kicked.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Okay, I'm changing this shit. I can't take hearing the whistles every fukking second. I'll check back later. Duke should be able to take this from here. Damn these bitch ass refs.

[MadeInDetroit]

Refs are making this unwatchable...

[NardVa]

5 fouls on UNCW in 4 minutes. What kind of shit is this? These refs need to have their asses kicked.

About half the fouls on UNC were questionable or phantom calls. UNC players are almost done with 3 and 4 fouls each. Duke players all have 1 foul each at the most. When you are Duke and you play 6 players, the refs have to make sure nobody gets in foul trouble.

[NardVa]

UNC players are getting hammered at the rim but no call..lol...

[TPowell]

come on guys, if you didn't handicap this stuff then....