Looking at card and want something easy where I do not have to sweat
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Rockets / Jazz Over 202.5Comment -
Yes, Rockets over.Comment -
Houston +5Comment -
LT might be onto something hereComment -
YES
Check your emailComment -
My dickComment -
Haven't looked at the games yet but I am sure there is something good.Comment -
712 Davidson under 149.5Comment -
My money is going on Houston and Brooklyn, both taking the points.Comment -
Does Otter's mom have a play?
LT tailing small.
Have not tailed anyone since 2014.Comment -
Over in the oilers game you wont have to sweet maximum the second period it will be overComment -
NY Islanders
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Wheres your spreadsheet at today JJ?Comment -
Magic/Sixers o208Comment -
Ohio -2.5Comment -
For the Houston at Utah game I have a Utah winning the game by about 4 points while less sophisticated lines have about the same with 5 points. The spread is about 4.5.
The difference is in the Totals. More sophisticated projections tend to predict a total score of about 112 to 113 points as opposed to the simpler models seeking just over 200 points.
And that’s where the total opened, at about 200.5 points. My metrics indicate the oddsmakers were expecting some Under pressure from a very specific audience but knew full well they would be raising that line.
The lower opening line has attracted Over bettors of all kinds and unnamed metrics indicate this more sophisticated line to be a potential failure.
We have seen the line push upward to 204 where, I, among others have lent the Under support, ticking the line down to 203.5.
In a contrarian play, I have picked up the Under 204 and would take anything above should we see a late movement in that direction.
Good Luck.
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I think The Pelicans have a letdown after the huge 59 points game by Davis.Comment -
I agree. Many of us are likely passing on this spread as the line is pretty sharp. With some sharp bettors sidelined, it will mitigate the damage done by the public support on Washington. Washigton backers with a 4.5 or 5 point line are getting a shitty number.
That shitty number could easily be the winner.
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JJ, in my opinion Houston +5 should be a pass, Alabama at +13.5 or 14 is not a bad play, and the Kansas -2 is a long term +EV play.
Good Luck.
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not not really
If line closed -1 and you get -2 then border line + EV play
Son you need to know value of points in college hoops
1 to 2 is not much
2 to 3 is more
6-7 or any higher number each point has decent value
If a game is -6 and you got +7 that is a + EV play
Even if game is -17 and you get +18 that is an + EV PLAYComment -
I have Kansas winning by 12 points...my line is up do date, dynamic, and among the sharpest out there. If you have Kansas -2 points, I'm telling you it's +EV.
The Houston +5 is not, it's too tight and a pass for most.
The Alabama +13.5 could have value, depending the handicapping program laid out and is close enough to consider the value of points.
Kansas has value at this level but I have reason to question...
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Shots at the Houston moneyline are forcing that line down to 4 much quicker than the pointspread bets, which are also heading that way.
Uh oh JJ, I'm thinking somebody could get tired in Utah, helping my Under but hurting the Rockets.
Should you have passed?
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lol, books trying to generate action on the Houston vs. Utah game. The initial line split that money too much and sidelined too many market movers.
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A total score around 112 to 113? It has to be closer to what Vegas actually put out, when was the last time there was a game that was that low scoring?For the Houston at Utah game I have a Utah winning the game by about 4 points while less sophisticated lines have about the same with 5 points. The spread is about 4.5.
The difference is in the Totals. More sophisticated projections tend to predict a total score of about 112 to 113 points as opposed to the simpler models seeking just over 200 points.
And that’s where the total opened, at about 200.5 points. My metrics indicate the oddsmakers were expecting some Under pressure from a very specific audience but knew full well they would be raising that line.
The lower opening line has attracted Over bettors of all kinds and unnamed metrics indicate this more sophisticated line to be a potential failure.
We have seen the line push upward to 204 where, I, among others have lent the Under support, ticking the line down to 203.5.
In a contrarian play, I have picked up the Under 204 and would take anything above should we see a late movement in that direction.
Good Luck.
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Elk stop self promoting
KVB I like your workComment -
Chest pounders get pounded when JJ meets them in real life.
Elk man you better be ready as I think JJ has been fuming about you for at least 3 years.Comment
