what is the winning percentage I need to achieve profit if im betting odds of minus 280? im back testing a college basketball system where im buying points and its performing at around 75% win rate. is that percentage high enough to get a profit when betting - 280 odds? thank you in advance.
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You will squeeze out a very tiny profit if you can consistently hit at 75% or more.
The far more likely outcome though is you hit a cold patch and go broke.Comment -
73.7%Comment -
73.69% is assuming no vigComment -
It works
I always buy pointsComment -
thanks guys. im still testing the system and if the percentages hold at 75% or better I will post the plays and we can keep track of it. give me a day or so to finish the test and we will see what the ending numbers are. thanks again guys.Comment -
Not trying to be an asshole here, but if you can't do the maths for your question.... Doubt you can create any model that works...Comment -
one more thing: the minus 280 odds are not written in stone. some times when im buying points it can be as low as -245 and other times it can be as high as -300. I just put -280 as an example.Comment -
seems not worth itComment -
To figure out the breakeven percentage on a given price you take the total risk of your bet -280 here so 280 and divide it by the total position of your bet which is 380 (280 to win 100 280 +100) so 280/380 = 73.68%. So if you were inquiring about the price of +140 instead y0u would take the total risk which is 100 and divide it by the total position which is 240 (100 to win 140 so 100 +140) so 100/240 which is 41.67%. So you would have to hit 41.67% to breakeven at the price of +140. Hope this helps.Comment -
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I think Brock was doing something like this with chalk ml bets. Ended real well for him.Comment -
10 inchesComment
